Phillies +128
I have been saying for a couple of years now that Kershaw has ace-like stuff and will be a dominant pitcher in the league for many years to come. However, as a sports bettor, the question at hand is what Kershaw is being priced as. With the market pricing him 25 cents higher than Wolf, a crafty veteran having a career year and supporting a low 3 ERA, it is apparent that the market thinks Kershaw is the real deal (I happened to actually increase my fair value of the Dodgers by 25 cents as well due to the pitching change- but that consisted of a bearish valuation on Wolf, and a generous one on Kershaw). Kershaw has proven he can pitch the big game, but again, that appears to be factored into the pricing. What seems to be getting ignored is Kershaw’s past struggles against the Philies. Whether the market is shrugging it off because they feel a dominant southpaw power pitcher matches up well against a lineup loaded on the left side, I am not sure. But this is not the ideal match up for Kershaw. Kershaw has a high propensity to walk batters, and the Phillies may possess the most patient lineup in the NL. Expect the Phillies to force Kershaw into the zone, make him accumulate a lot of pitches, and possibly rattle him, as he feeds off getting opposing hitters to go out of the zone. Kershaws value may be increased in Philly as well. He was the second hardest pitcher to hit home runs against this year, Hammel is a flyball pitcher. The big park will benefit Hammel much more than Kershaw.
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Hammel is clearly not the same pitcher he was last year. However, I will gladly back him when the market is bearish on him. He did in fact have a solid second half of the season, and has owned the Dodgers in the past. These two variables make me question the negative sentiment on him in this game. The Phillies bullpen is a concern, but when on, Hammels can go really deep. A good part of Lidges problems are psychological, when should be negated by his series against the Rockies. The Dodgers have not played in five games. Prolong layoffs mess with hitters timing. Hammels biggest strength is getting hitters timing off kilter. Expect this variable to be magnified. Live dog in my opinon.
I have been saying for a couple of years now that Kershaw has ace-like stuff and will be a dominant pitcher in the league for many years to come. However, as a sports bettor, the question at hand is what Kershaw is being priced as. With the market pricing him 25 cents higher than Wolf, a crafty veteran having a career year and supporting a low 3 ERA, it is apparent that the market thinks Kershaw is the real deal (I happened to actually increase my fair value of the Dodgers by 25 cents as well due to the pitching change- but that consisted of a bearish valuation on Wolf, and a generous one on Kershaw). Kershaw has proven he can pitch the big game, but again, that appears to be factored into the pricing. What seems to be getting ignored is Kershaw’s past struggles against the Philies. Whether the market is shrugging it off because they feel a dominant southpaw power pitcher matches up well against a lineup loaded on the left side, I am not sure. But this is not the ideal match up for Kershaw. Kershaw has a high propensity to walk batters, and the Phillies may possess the most patient lineup in the NL. Expect the Phillies to force Kershaw into the zone, make him accumulate a lot of pitches, and possibly rattle him, as he feeds off getting opposing hitters to go out of the zone. Kershaws value may be increased in Philly as well. He was the second hardest pitcher to hit home runs against this year, Hammel is a flyball pitcher. The big park will benefit Hammel much more than Kershaw.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Hammel is clearly not the same pitcher he was last year. However, I will gladly back him when the market is bearish on him. He did in fact have a solid second half of the season, and has owned the Dodgers in the past. These two variables make me question the negative sentiment on him in this game. The Phillies bullpen is a concern, but when on, Hammels can go really deep. A good part of Lidges problems are psychological, when should be negated by his series against the Rockies. The Dodgers have not played in five games. Prolong layoffs mess with hitters timing. Hammels biggest strength is getting hitters timing off kilter. Expect this variable to be magnified. Live dog in my opinon.
