May add later
Phillies +141
Nice value on the Phillies as this game appears to have combined the undervaluation bias was existent in game 1, there series price prior to game 1, and their current series price with the inflated premium that commonly exists with a home team down 1-0. Surprising move by Torre putting Padilla as the game 2 starter. Looks like he values the hot hand much more than underlying y fundamentals that suggest a bad outing by Padilla against the Phillies. Padilla has struggled his entire career against left handed batters. His arm angle is easy for left handed bats to pick up. He also has the propensity to struggle against patient lineups, as he often times struggles finding the strike zone, and gets flustered easily on the mound when not getting hitters to chase out of the zone. The Phillies possess not only the most potent lineup from the left side, but also the most patient. If Padilla’s hot streak were to end some point this season, it will likely end today. The Phillies patient approach got to Kershaw last night. They are hitting well this playoff series, and don’t see a fundamental reason for it not to continue today.
This is more of a play on the Phillies lineup and against Padilla than it is Martinez. However, he does appear to be priced generously, has pitched better than expected this year, and has playoff experience that can come in handy. The Phillies front end of the bullpen has become deeper going to a 4 man, which is beneficial when having a starter not built to go deep. The Phillies bullpen is a concern, but it is apparent that the line compensates for any Phillies bullpen deficiencies. Lidge once again pitched well last night, and his confidence may be at a multi month high.
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Over 9 +114
Nice value on the 9 line. This game consists of two of the top 3 lineups in the NL, lineups hitting the ball well right now, starting pitchers that have their fair share of question marks, and bullpens that looked overmatched against their opposing lineups last night. I mentioned reasons why I do not like Padilla’s chances today. Also would not be surprised if Martinez struggles. He has not pitched in two weeks, and struggled his last two outings. Drekman has a small zone. This does not bode well for either starter. Padilla can struggle with his control, while Martinez needs the corners to be effective. I would take any plus money on the 9.
Phillies +141
Nice value on the Phillies as this game appears to have combined the undervaluation bias was existent in game 1, there series price prior to game 1, and their current series price with the inflated premium that commonly exists with a home team down 1-0. Surprising move by Torre putting Padilla as the game 2 starter. Looks like he values the hot hand much more than underlying y fundamentals that suggest a bad outing by Padilla against the Phillies. Padilla has struggled his entire career against left handed batters. His arm angle is easy for left handed bats to pick up. He also has the propensity to struggle against patient lineups, as he often times struggles finding the strike zone, and gets flustered easily on the mound when not getting hitters to chase out of the zone. The Phillies possess not only the most potent lineup from the left side, but also the most patient. If Padilla’s hot streak were to end some point this season, it will likely end today. The Phillies patient approach got to Kershaw last night. They are hitting well this playoff series, and don’t see a fundamental reason for it not to continue today.
This is more of a play on the Phillies lineup and against Padilla than it is Martinez. However, he does appear to be priced generously, has pitched better than expected this year, and has playoff experience that can come in handy. The Phillies front end of the bullpen has become deeper going to a 4 man, which is beneficial when having a starter not built to go deep. The Phillies bullpen is a concern, but it is apparent that the line compensates for any Phillies bullpen deficiencies. Lidge once again pitched well last night, and his confidence may be at a multi month high.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Over 9 +114
Nice value on the 9 line. This game consists of two of the top 3 lineups in the NL, lineups hitting the ball well right now, starting pitchers that have their fair share of question marks, and bullpens that looked overmatched against their opposing lineups last night. I mentioned reasons why I do not like Padilla’s chances today. Also would not be surprised if Martinez struggles. He has not pitched in two weeks, and struggled his last two outings. Drekman has a small zone. This does not bode well for either starter. Padilla can struggle with his control, while Martinez needs the corners to be effective. I would take any plus money on the 9.
