Any NFL Futures With Value?

homedawg · Oct 17, 2009

Cincinatti still 30/1 . Have been high on this team since pre season. Actually have some nice futures with them at 50/1 for Super Bowl, and 38/1 AFC. Very under rated defense combined with Carson Palmer will always give them a chance. I think they continue to win.

I know there are some posters with very good insight on futures, wanted to see if anyone currently liked anything going into these week 7 games?

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2009

If their defense is for real, they definitely have a shot.....

FairWarning · Oct 17, 2009

Not sure what Chicago is, but they don't play a home game in October. Nov and Dec they play 6.

homedawg · Oct 17, 2009

FairWarning said:
Not sure what Chicago is, but they don't play a home game in October. Nov and Dec they play 6.

32/1

Think this team will only get better, although I think the NFC with N Orleans, and New York will be the tougher conference to survive.

homedawg · Oct 17, 2009

Hache Man said:
If their defense is for real, they definitely have a shot.....

I think it's for real. Has kept them in basically every game. Made some nice improvements, and some players they had stepped up and elevated their games. Marvin Lewis is doing a lot more hands on this season as well (about time).
Even better they get Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City at home, and even a trip to Oakland to help pad their record. If they get by Houston this weekend as 5 point favorites, to go to 5-1 and they are in good shape.

TomGshotput · Oct 17, 2009

Generally, once the season starts good bets like these are hard to find. The suprise teams jump so much more than the overpriced teams drop.

But, yes, 30-to-1 is good value; 18-to-1 around here

IrishTim · Oct 17, 2009

Never any value on one-sided lines.

Defying · Oct 18, 2009

I got Panthers +15000 last week. Tremendous value you there..
First 3 games tons of injuiries on the D side of the Ball....

Panthers have the ability to be 3-3 afrter Bucs and Bills. Then they will be tested. But this team is returning 21 of 22 starters from its 12-4 season in 08

kermit16 · Oct 18, 2009

IrishTim said:
Never any value on one-sided lines.

Really ? I've been making $$ wagering that way for over 25 years now ! Perhaps you need to take another look at your methods.

homedawg · Oct 18, 2009

kermit16 said:
Really ? I've been making $$ wagering that way for over 25 years now ! Perhaps you need to take another look at your methods.

Kermit, you mind sharing any of your future tickets you are holding? You like anything currently?

kermit16 · Oct 18, 2009

homedawg said:
Kermit, you mind sharing any of your future tickets you are holding? You like anything currently?

I have the Broncos over 6 1/2 wins which I shared with a number of RX'ers at this years Bash as well as some 20/1 to win their division and 85/1 to win Super bowl. I will be covering these wagers later in the year if need be. I will be leaving this afternoon to see what kind of odds I can find on the Angels to defeat the Yankees and also the world series odds as I don't think they are dead. I find some of my best odds well into the season or playoffs sometimes. I have some great odds on Saints and pretty decent odds on the Colts both teams which right now I consider the 2 best. I have 12/1 on the Colts but I would have to look up to see what odds I have on the Saints. Obviously my favorite team right now is the Broncos but I am wagering against them on Monday as I don't like the spot. BTW My favorite team is always the team that I make the most $$ on ! I have to get moving right now to check the good places here in Las Vegas for futures. Palms, Las Vegas Hilton, Venetion, Wynn and the M offer the best IMHO I will post more ideas later after todays games as most sites are closed for futures while the games are still being played anyway. GL on todays games !

HAT · Oct 18, 2009

kermit16 said:
I have the Broncos over 6 1/2 wins which I shared with a number of RX'ers at this years Bash as well as some 20/1 to win their division

Wow...I thought I was doing good with the +750 I bought in August.

When did you grab that Kermit?

BOL to us. :toast:

kermit16 · Oct 18, 2009

HAT said:
Wow...I thought I was doing good with the +750 I bought in August.

When did you grab that Kermit?

BOL to us. :toast:

June 15 at the Venetian Yes .... both great wager IMHO

IrishTim · Oct 18, 2009

kermit16 said:
Really ? I've been making $$ wagering that way for over 25 years now ! Perhaps you need to take another look at your methods.

Then you've been lucky. If you knew the vig the books took on one-sided futures, you'd probably never place one again.

trytrytry · Oct 18, 2009

Irish Tim..of course the overall take considering all the teams on futures is a disaster..but you dont play them all..in a list of dozens there can be overalys even if the take out is sky high like vegas futures...never hurts to look these all over carefully and see if you think some are an overaly...

IrishTim · Oct 18, 2009

kermit16 said:
I have the Broncos over 6 1/2 wins

These types of season win totals to be a "future wager" because they're not one-sided. The books have to put out lines on the over and under, so it's often possible to find good value (although the limits on these bets are low, so I find it hard to believe you've made substantial money on these wagers).

The futures I'm talking about are the Gators to win the NC +120, etc. American books don't usually give you the option of taking "the field" vs. the Gators which is why I refer to them as "one-sided", and when they do, it's usually at 30%+ vig. Hard to win consistently when you're giving 30 cents on the dollar.

IrishTim · Oct 18, 2009

trytrytry said:
Irish Tim..of course the overall take considering all the teams on futures is a disaster..but you dont play them all..in a list of dozens there can be overalys even if the take out is sky high like vegas futures...never hurts to look these all over carefully and see if you think some are an overaly...

I agree to some extent. Good post :toast:

kermit16 · Oct 18, 2009

IrishTim said:
Then you've been lucky. If you knew the vig the books took on one-sided futures, you'd probably never place one again.

Winning long term has nothing to do with luck. Wagering with Math on your side is skill. You have this one sided feveritis so stay away and let me continue winning. Why don't you get the point that wagering on sides is almost always a - 110 deal and all books points spreads are very close to the same. However on futures the Books don't have a clue and sometimes are sound asleep. You could wager on the Yankees at 2/1 at one book and find them at 7/1 at another. Florida may be even Money at one and 5/2 at another. With these kind of differentials, the vig means nothing. I am heading to the Las Vegas Casinos right now to see what odds I can find on the Angels...... Do you actually think all the Casinos will be the same ? I wouldn't doubt that there will be over a 100 % difference amongst them. BTW I usually find better futures here in Las Vegas than I do online because the tourist who are here just wager on their home team. That's why you can seldon find great odds on the Popular teams like Cubs etc.

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