[MistaFlava]

MistaFlava's 2009 NFL Record: 28-21 ATS (-176.50 Units)

As you can see from the information below, last season was my best ever in NFL betting as I finished with a 61% capping record on the year and finished with an 82% clip in the playoffs. I lost my first two wagers and then won my last 9 wagers of last year's playoffs including a huge play on the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl.

LAST YEAR

MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Record: 49-31-3 ATS (+528.00 Units) 61%
MistaFlava's 2008 NFL Playoffs: 9-2 ATS (+185.00 Units) 82%

http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=658091


2009 Season

Week 1: 7-2 ATS (+88.00 Units)
Week 2: 4-4 ATS (-108.50 Units)
Week 3: 5-3 ATS (+36.00 Units)
Week 4: 3-5 ATS (-48.50 Units)
Week 5: 4-4 ATS (-148.00 Units)
Week 6: 5-3 ATS (+4.50 Units)
Week 7: Pending



I won't say much more than I post around here for fun and to possibly help others win money. I bring controversy, drama, excitement or whatever you want to call it and I don't mind. All the stuff I write is my own. Sometimes tout sites steal my writeups and post them as their own. Oh well. I often do some of those writeups while drunk, half asleep or completely toasted but I make my selections way before my writeups.

Alright so the goal this season is once again to hit the 100 unit mark. All my wagers are 1 Unit = $100 unless I post otherwise. Let's make some cash this season and let's kick this off on a positive note with some big wins early one.

LETS MAKE SOME CASH!!!

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Sunday, October 25


San Francisco 49ers +3 (10 Units)

The San Francisco Niners had an entire week off and away from football to think about their worst loss in Candlestick Park history as they went down to the Atlanta Falcons 45-10 right before the bye week. Mike Singletary was one pissed of head coach after that game but I think he recognizes the fact that his team is young, they are still learning and games like that are going to happen. That is one of the biggest reasons he held back from tearing into his team after that game instead making sure they spend their time wisely with the off week and come back this week ready to practice. Playing on the road coming off a bye week is never easy but the good news for this Niners team is that RB Frank Gore is back in business and that should definitely help this team against one of the best offenses in the NFL. I do also want to remind all of you how well the Niners have played on the road this season and that this team away from home is not a joke. San Francisco opened their season with a very impressive 20-16 road win at defending NFC Champions Arizona Cardinals as a +5.5 point underdog in that game. A few weeks late the Niners went to Minnesota and everyone doubted them in that game put they put critics to rest with a game they should have won but lost 27-24 on a last play Hail Mary conversion by the one and only Brett Favre. They were a +7 point underdog in that game and they should have won. San Francisco comes into this game averaging 23.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 251.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.7 yards per play in those games. Yup they miss Frank Gore. They are going up against a Houston defense that has allowed only 17.0 points per game in their last three games and that has allowed only 267.0 total yards of offense per game on 5.0 yards per play in those games. So the Texans are finally playing some defense it looks like. On the ground the running game has suffered without Gore as the team is averaging only 84.7 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry but Gore himself is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on the year and has 3 rushing touchdowns in three starts this season. They will need him in this game because the Texans run defense has allowed their last three opponents to average only 45.0 rushing yards per game and only 2.5 yards per carry in those games. I think if the Niners get Gore going on the ground, things will be a lot easier for QB Shaun Hill who has struggled in his last three games completing only 50.6% of his passes for 166.3 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. The Texans secondary has done a good job containing good passing teams as their last three opponents have completed 57.5% of their passes for 222.0 passing yards per game and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Now I am well aware that Hill has struggled but once again his struggles are directly related to the absence of Gore in the backfield and now that he is back the pressure is going to subside quite a bit. The last three QB's to face this Texans defense have averaged a QB Rating of 81.7 in those games and I think the Texans defense is a bit overrated. They really don't bring much QB pressure as they have only 4 sacks in their last three games and that will be relief for Hill who has been sacked 7 times in his last three games. Even with all that pressure in his face Hill has stayed composed and has trusted his instincts throwing only 2 interceptions in those games. With more time to throw he should find some seems and make some plays against a Texans defense that has only 1 interception in their last three games. The reason Houston's defense has been so good is because in their last three games they have forced and recovered 6 fumbles in those games but the Niners have fumbled only two times in their last three games and I don't think they have a problem holding onto the ball. The Niners have been horrendous in third down situations the last three games converting 21.1% of their chances in those games but that's what the BYE WEEK is made for. I do think they have a very good shot of winning this game and keeping it close throughout based on the fact that their Red Zone offense is great. They have scored a touchdown 66.7% of the time from inside the Red Zone their last three games and Houston's Red Zone defense is terrible allowing touchdowns 66.7% of the time from inside the Red Zone. The Texans have allowed 14.3 points per first half their last three games and for a team needing some offensive confidence early in this game, the Niners should be back on track with yet another road win here.

The Houston Texans have screwed me two weeks in a row now. I went against them with my PLAY OF THE WEEK last week by betting on the Cincinnati Bengals to win by five or more points. FAIL! I was on the Texans the week before that when they went to Arizona, fell behind early, made it all the way back only to completely blow their load and have QB Matt Schaub throw a pick six that cost me what would have surely been a cover if the game went to overtime since I had the +6.5. Anyways life goes on and it's time to take a look at what this team can do for you and me on home grounds. There is a big difference when you go from weeks of being an underdog to back home where you are favored and it's a mental preparation type of thing where you prepare differently for a game as a favorite than you do when nobody expects you to win as an underdog. In their season and home opener the Houston Texans went down hard via 24-7 blowout loss to Mark Sanchez and the New York football Jets as -4.5 point favorites. Then came the 31-24 loss at the hands of the pathetic Jacksonville Jaguars as a -4 point home favorite. The only game they covered on home turf was against the Oakland Raiders as -9 point home favorites and that was also the first time all season they outyarded an opponent in a game. They have since outyarded every opponent and are playing much better football but their home play has not impressed me at all. The Houston Texans come into this game averaging 26.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on 405.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play in those games. Despite allowing 45 points two weeks ago at home against the Falcons, this Niners defense has been very solid and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 24.0 points per game and 343.7 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.2 yards per play. My concern with Houston week in and week out is their lack of running games because eventually it will catch up to them. The Texans average only 84.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 2.7 yards per carry and they are going up against a very good San Francisco defense in this game that has allowed only 112.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 3.5 yards per carry in those games. So once again the Niners defense knows Houston is going to move the ball through the air. QB Matt Schaub has been one of the best in the NFL this season and he has completed 66.1% of his passes the last three games for a whopping 321.7 passing yards per game and 8.6 yards per pass attempt in those games with a QB Rating of 102.7 which is damn impressive. Having said that, the Niners defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 57.8% of their passes for 231.3 passing yards per game in those games on 6.8 yards per pass attempt and a QB Rating of only 79.5 in those games. Not bad at all for a team that allowed 45 points last week and like I mentioned before, that was a one time thing and the Niners had an entire two weeks to wrap their heads around certain issues on both sides of the ball. I mean no matter how poorly you think the Niners played last week their offense turning the ball over and going three and out on almost every drive was a big part of the reason the defense had so many problems. I mean the Niners still have a very good pass rush with 7 sacks in their last three games and Houston has already shown that they are going to struggle against good pass rushing teams as they have allowed 6 sacks in their last three games. Schaub, as good as he has been, can be mistake prone when pressured and he is going to have guys in his face all game because of the lack of running game. He has thrown 3 interceptions in his last three games and the Niners defense has come down with 3 interceptions of their own in those games. As much as the Texans have forced turnovers on defense they have also turned the ball right back to their opponents and I would be concerned with the fact that they have fumbled 6 times in their last three games and have lost two of those fumbles along the way. For a team that is playing so well on offense I have to questions some of the defenses they have faced as the Texans have converted only 32.6% of their third down chances the last three games and I don't really know how they score so many points with percentages like that. That should be a welcome sign for a San Francisco defense that has struggled on third downs the last three games. The Texans have also struggled in the Red Zone as they have scored touchdowns only 42.9% of the time in the Red Zone the last three games and again that is a welcome sign for the Niners defense because they have struggled badly in the Red Zone the last three games and if they can hold Houston to field goals in this game, their offense will find it a lot easier to manage the game and the clock. Despite looking like one of the best and most explosive offenses in the league the last few weeks, I think the Texans have reached their peak and the Niners have had two weeks to prepare for them now. I like the Niners defense in this game.

This is some breaking news and I had already started my writeup at the time but WR Michael Crabtree will make his NFL debut in this game and what better place to do it than in his home State of Texas with a ton of friends and family in attendance? You know he is going to be jacked up to get some touches and that should help motivate his teammates too. The Niners and Texans met once in their NFL lives and that was a 20-17 home win for San Francisco back in 2006. Sure that was a long time ago but the point here is that Houston has not played well at home this season, they are most definitely tired having not had their bye week and they are going to have a letdown coming off a big win as a road underdog against Cincinnati. San Francisco on the other hand is fresh off that bye week. The Niners are very good in this spot and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog overall. The Niners are a very impressive 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of 14 points or more the game before and they are 5-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss. Houston I can happily says is 0-4 ATS in their last four games that follow a win the game before and this is a tired bunch that has not played well at home as a favorite. Do not forget that the Texans lost to both the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars at home while San Francisco beat Arizona and should have beat Minnesota on the road. Niners baby!

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of 14+ points the game before.


San Francisco 28, Houston 24





more to come...

[indiana]

M.Flava......

Wow, you're getting a early start here... thank you for the early write ups and plays..BOL with your plays

indy

[awnp]

LOVE the play MistaFlava. BOL to you.

[nman84]

yea much appreciated for the early write ups! Thanks!

[vmatheboss]

im loving the niners play.... they are doing fairly well this season..... goodluck with your plays, ill be tailing!

[miwee]

Mistah frav back in bijjiness! Impressive college bounceback!

[kingking]

gl flava. like this one a lot too.

[Little Chicago]

Love the San Fran. Have 4 STRONG plays marked & that's one

[MistaFlava]

Coming off my best Saturday in College Football where I went 11-3 ATS (+165.50 Units) this week and had some huge wins, here is what else I like:



adding...



Indianapolis Colts -14 (10 Units)

The Indianapolis Colts are hands down the best team in the NFL this season (well I guess you could argue that New Orleans is but the Colts have Peyton Manning and that says it all) and they are going straight up against the worst team in the NFL in this game. So someone has to explain to me how this game would not be another one of those like New England dropping 59 points on the Tennessee Titans last week or any other good team blowing away any other bad team. The Colts are a pertect 5-0 SU this season and they are 4-1 ATS in those games. I watched these guys beat Jacksonville 14-12 to open the season and I was not impressed. Then I saw their Monday Night game against the Miami Dolphins and I was even less impressed but they have really turned things around the last three games as they beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday Night Football by outyarding them by 182 total yards, they beat Seattle 34-17 by outyarding them by 152 total yards and they beat the Tennessee Titans 31-9 a few weeks back and outyarded them by 122 total yards. Now they get what is arguably one of the toughest players in the NFL back from injury as safety Bob Sanders makes his debut. So again this doesn't really make any sense but I am going to go with the better team that has won their last three games by an average of 20 points per game against teams that are better than St. Louis (well everyone is better than the Rams so). Indianapolis comes into this game averaging a whopping 32.0 points per game the last three games and they have done that by averaging 434.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.6 yards per play in those games. The Rams defense is not all that bad and they have competed at times this season but they do allow 32.0 points per game the last three games and allow 365.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.9 yards per play in those games. So on the ground the Colts have not done much of anything and that concerns for weeks to come as they average 87.3 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry in those games but we could see an improvement today against a St. Louis defense that allowed 117.0 rushing yards per game their last three games on 3.9 yards per carry in those games. We all know the Colts are going to put the ball in the air and Peyton Manning has completed 75.8% of his passes the last three games for 347.0 passing yards per game and 8.7 yards per pass attempt in those games. Wow, how screwed is this Rams secondary anyways? The Rams have allowed their last three opponents to complete 69.1% of their passes for 248.7 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per pass attempt in those games. Like I said I have no idea how this does not turn into a complete blowout. In those last three games Manning has a QB Rating of 116.0 and he is going up against a Rams defense that has allowed their last three QB's to have a QB Rating of 90.1 in those games. Enough said right there. Manning has not been sacked one single time in this last three games and although he has thrown 3 interceptions, the more he stays away from QB's and the more he can have time to throw, the more is going to execute the orginal gameplan and win games big. That's pretty much what New England did last week. The Rams defense like I said has not been all that bad and they do have 9 sacks in their last three games and they have come down with 3 interceptions in those games but they really don't matchup well with the Colts in this game. In terms of putting the ball on the ground the Colts don't really do it as they have lost 1 fumble in their last three games and the Rams defense has recovered only 1 fumble in their last three games and unless they can find a way to force a bunch of turnovers, I just don't see how they consistently stop the Colts from scoring. Indianapolis has converted 50.0% of their third down chances the last three games and that is a big time disaster for the Rams defense who has the worst third down defense the last three games allowing their opponents to convert 55.0% of their chances in those games. You also have to think the score is going to get run up big time here seeing how Indianapolis scores touchdowns 60.0% of the time from inside the Red Zone the last three games while the Rams defense has allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns a whopping 72.7% of the time. What this comes down to is an offense too good for their opponent. The Colts score 21.0 points per game in the first half of their last three games and they will take an early lead and never look back.

The St. Louis Rams are the worst team in the NFL and I don't want to say by far because there are teams like the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs and all that but it's damn close and if there is a team I say will not win a single game all season it will be the Rams. I mean they have looked decent in a few of their games but right now they are 0-6 SU on the season and heading absolutely nowhere. Make no mistake about it, QB Marc Bulger is still here and so is RB Steven Jackson and they are both healthy at the very same time for the first time in a very long time. So what is the problem? First and foremost I don't think Bulger has any threats he can consistently connect with on passes and I actually think Bulger took so many hits in his career that he is not the same as he used to be. Jackson has been rumored to want out of town and that trade could be coming in the next few weeks if the Rams want to unload him and start the actual re-building process. I just can't back the Rams here as much as I think this is a big time trap. I mean they have outyarded only one of their six opponents this season and that was the Minnesota Vikings at home a few weeks ago but they still lost that game 38-10. They have been outyarded by more than 100 yards in three games this season and all three were road games so they have played better at home being outyarded by only 66 yards against the Green Bay Packers here earlier in the month but even that was a 36-17 loss. St. Louis comes into this game averaging a pathetic 10.0 points per game in their last three games and they have done that on only 279.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Well this is the best Colts defense I have seen in a long time and they have allowed only 12.0 points per game their last three games on 282.3 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. So their defense has actually been more impressive than their offense this season that's for sure. On the ground, RB Steven Jackson can't really say anything or complain I mean the Rams are averaging only 90.7 rushing yards per game their last three games on 3.6 yards per carry in those games but the Colts defense has allowed only 54.3 rushing yards per game and they have allowed only 3.1 yards per carry in those games. Once again the only way the Rams can keep up is if Bulger has a lights out game. He has completed 64.6% of his passes the last three games for 189.0 passing yards per game and 5.9 yards per pass attempt in those games. Not bad but not all that good. The Colts get Bob Sanders back today and that should help a defense that has allowed their last three opponents to complete 62.7% of their passes the last three games for 228.0 passing yards per game and 5.1 yards per pass attempt in those games. This defense has made sure all season that they keep everything in front of them because they know that their offense is going to score points and they know that the only way back into games for their opponents is to come up with some huge plays on offense so the goal is to keep evertying in front of them. Bulger has a QB Rating of only 74.4 in his last three games and the last QB's to face the Colts defense have a QB Rating average of only 71.2 in those games. Now with Bob Sanders, I don't see anything changing at all to be honest with you guys. The Colts bring some big time pressure up front and they now have 10 sacks in their last three games so Bulger is as always going to be under pressure from the beginning of this game and that is going to be a big problem as a he has been sacked 8 times in his last three games. Much like Manning, Bulger has thrown 3 interceptions in his last three games and the Colts defense is always looking to make big plays in the air and they have 3 interceptions in their last three games. Another huge problem that has contributed to all the losses for the Rams is the amount of times they turn over the ball to their opponents. We are talking about a team that has lost 5 fumbles in their last three games while fumbling the ball 6 times in those games. The Colts love coming after the ball when they tackle and they have forced 6 fumbles in their last three games and have recovered 4 of those fumbles in those games. Had St. Louis been one of those teams that can score quickly by marching up and down the field then I would consider them but instead they have converted only 35.0% of their third down chances the last three games and they are horrendous in the Red Zone as they have scored touchdowns only 16.7 times per game in those games while inside the Red Zone. That is by far the worst Red Zone defense in the NFL and again unless they can score touchdowns consistently, they are not going to keep this close. The Colts have allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns from inside the Red Zone only 42.9% of the time and they are a very solid defense all around. St. Louis sucks, their offense sucks, their defense is not much better and they have scored only 4.3 points per the first three quarters of their last three games. This team is a disaster right now and they face a well rested Colts team. DISASTER!

So something is wrong. Either this was a mistake line that was put out there by oddsmakers or they is the biggest bait I have ever come across in NFL Football history. When the line first came out I decided to wait a little bit and see where this was heading. Was there an injury we did not know about, do the Colts have off-field problem...and the beat goes on. But as the week went along this was just like any other game and it just looks like a bad line. In a season where there are so many bad teams, I did not have a choice but to bet this game. It's a bout value, I had to take this line and if I lose well so be it but at least I know I took it. Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a losing record at home. The Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games overall and they have covered 9 of their last 11 games played in the Month of October. I don't know why anyone would really doubt what they can do in this game today because yeah St. Louis is that bad. The Rams have covered the spread in only 8 of their last 25 games as an underdog and they cannot be trusted in this spot here. They are also only 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games versus a team with a winning record and they have covered only 3 of their last 12 games played at home. They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog and the Colts are playing on field turf, in a dome, which puts them right at home in this game. I don't see anything but a huge blowout in this game and if I get burned by the public sheep effect, then so be it. LETS THIS GAME ROLLING, looks too easy but I like it.

Trend of the Game: Indianapolis is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games.


Indianapolis 34, St. Louis 12





more to come...

[Tutow]

~~~~~~~~~~~just cover baby~~~~~~~~~~~

[MistaFlava]

adding...



New England Patriots -14.5 (5 Units)

The New England Patriots showed why they are the best team in the NFL the last at least 10 seasons so I would say the last decade, in their game last week as they broke a bunch of NFL records and beat the living crap out of the Tennessee Titans in a 59-0 destroying of Jeff Fisher and his team. What's funny is that the Patriots are not a team that is going to run up the score on purpose in games like that but they were making huge plays left and right and you cannot just help yourself of stop yourself from making plays on defense, returning interceptions for touchdowns and operating on an every game basis just like any other football team would do. I can't help but feel like this is yet another trap the boys in Vegas have set for us because it seems that every single week of the season now, there are huge spreads like this and teams are favored by double digits and this is going at a rate that I have never seen in my life before. I have also not seen this many blowout wins week in and week out in a very long time and now it seems that you can be comfortable betting on teams to win by a lot. Alright so let's check the Patriots road games this season. They opened their road schedule at the NY Jets and lost that game 16-9 and I understand because Brady was still completely out of tune. Then they went to Denver a few weeks ago and lost to the Broncos in overtime so they are 0-2 SU on the road this season. Having said that this team is coming off their best showing in the Bill Belichik era and now that they got that out of their systems, this team should be ready to roll. New England comes into this game averaging 34.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done that by also averaging 414.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Again one of the best offenses in the NFL and you can trust them. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed 25.7 points per game their last three games and they have allowed 308.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.5 yards per play in those games. Not too bad at all and they should keep their team close for the most part of this game. On the ground is where I think New England is going to win this game and put it away late as they average 124.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. The Buccaneeers defense has not been able to stop the run at all as they have allowed 156.0 rushing yards per game their last three games on 4.5 yards per carry and both RBs Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor are going to have huge games here today. Once the running game gets going, the passing attack is going to come into play and QB Tom Brady has completed 70.9% of his passes the last three games for 289.7 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per pass attempt in those games. He is on fire right now and other teams in the AFC really need to watch out big time. The Buccaneers defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete 60.3% of their passes for 152.0 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per pass attempt and that is exactly the type of soft defense that has gotten some of the bad teams completely blown out of games this season. In those last three games Brady has a QB Rating of 121.4 (which is better than Manning or any other QB except Drew Brees in the span of the last three games) and the Buccaneers last three QB's have a QB Rating of 81.2 which is once again not bad but it's not that good. It has not been impossible to sack Tom Brady and other teams have been able to get to him in recent games as he has been sacked 6 times in his last three games. Tampa Bay is obviously going to come after him as they have a decent pass rush and they have 7 sacks in their last three games but if you are waiting for Brady to make mistakes he rarely makes any and he has thrown 0 interceptions in his last three games overall. I know it's tough to back a team to win by more than two touchdowns when they have not won a single game on the road this season but the Patriots can turn that around as they are a team that has converted 40.0% of third down chances the last three games while Tampa Bay has allowed their last three opponents to convert 42.1% of their third down chances in those games. What this comes down to for me is the Patriots ability to score big time points and score touchdowns almost every single time they are in the Red Zone as they have done that 61.5% of the time the last three games while the Tampa Bay defense is one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to Red Zone defense and their last three opponents have scored touchdowns 80.0% of the time when inside the Red Zone in those games. Those are some crazy numbers and Brady is not going to make that mistakes of settling for three points at any point from inside the other team's 20 yard line. New England needs a big win here and they need to know that they can get their offense and defense on the same page when playing away from home. That is something they have not done all season but they can always start here. I think they win this game big.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are another one of the winless teams in the NFL right now and I am going to continue fading teams like this when they play against much better opponents. When you cannot win a single game in six tries already this season, team morale has to be down and the atmosphere in general in the locker room cannot be good. On top of that, the Buccaneers did not only to Carolina last week but they lost in stunning fashion and they lost after putting together their best effort of the season only to lose on a very late touchdown by the Panthers after the Buccaneers had just tied the game. It was a nice try but yet another loss and the mood on the team had to be pretty damn bad this past week. The Buccaneers are a little banged up coming into this game as their top special teams player RB Clifton Smith is out today and he has been responsible for 600 of Tampa Bay's return yards this season as he returned 17 kickoffs this season while averaging 27.9 yards per return and he returned 13 punts for the Bucs this season as well. Some of the bad teams in the NFL have played some good football but the Buccaneers are not one of those teams. I know they came close to winning last week but they have been outyarded in every single game this season and although the yardage difference has not been all that big, it still means that they put themselves in a position to lose pretty much every week and that is just not going to work if they cannot win the yards battle against a team like the New England Patriots in this game today. Tampa Bay comes into this game averaging only 16.0 points per game their last three games and their offense has been terrible as they average only 259.0 total yards of offense per game and only 4.7 yards per play in those games. The New England defense is by no means the best in the NFL this season but they get the job done and they have allowed only 13.7 points per game the last three games and have allowed only 324.3 total yards of offense per game on 5.2 yards per play in those games. The only way New England does not cover this spread is if they get run over by RB Cadillac Williams who is the one and only reason the Buccaneers score any points in games. New England has the #20 run defense in the NFL as they have allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game the last three games and have allowed 5.3 yards per carry in those games. OUCH! Williams and the Buccaneers have run for 112.7 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.4 yards per carry but it's very tough for a team to play from behind and run the ball which would be why the Buccaneers have run it only 25.7 times per game their last three games. In the air, QB Josh Johnson is the man in charge but has anyone been impressed by anything he has done this season? He has completed only 54.5% of this passes on the season for only 529 passing yards total, only 5.3 yards per pass attempt and his QB Rating is 58.9 on the year. Maybe they will go back to QB Byron Leftwich in this game but that is not any better. The Patriots defense has allowed their last three opponents to complete only 58.7% of their passes for 187.0 passing yards per game and only 5.1 yards per pass attempt so if they really want to stop Cadillac and his running attack, all they have to do is stack the box and make the Buccaneeers beat them in the air because even if you dare them throw the ball and you leave single coverage all day long, I can almost promise you these QB's won't get the job done for the Bucs. The last three QB's to go against this Patriots defense have a QB Rating of 69.4 in those games and I just don't see how Tampa Bay is going to score more than a few points in this game. The Patriots don't have much of a pass rush because they play things safe and would rather keep opponents to shorter yardage gains and although they have only 4 sacks in their last three games, this would be a great time to start working on that pass rush against a Tampa Bay offensive line that cannot protect their QB's as they have been sacked 10 times in the last three games. WOW! The Buccaneers are a bunch of misfits and they have fumbled the ball 8 times in their last three games and despite losing only 2 fumbles in those games, the Patriots are the kind of defense that is going to jump all over those mistakes and they have forced 9 fumbles in their last three games while recovering 5 of them in the process. Like I said this defense does not mess around. I have to say Tampa Bay might have success moving the ball on third down because they do convert 40.5% of their third down chances in the last three games and New England has struggled to get off the field in third down defensive situations the last three games but the Buccaneers can drive the ball down field all they want but it won't matter unless they score touchdowns on almost every single drive they get accross the 50. That won't happen as they have scored touchdowns from inside the Red Zone only 42.9% of the time the last three games and the Patriots Red Zone defense is very good as their last three opponents have scored touchdowns only 50.0% of the time in those games. Again the Buccaneers lose a big time kickoff and punt returner that nobody has really ever heard of but they do have some good backup options in WR Sammy Stroughter who used to play at Oregon State. I am going with anothe fade of the Buccaneeers in this game.

So what's the damn deal with Vegas and these juicy lines? I am not one to jump on public favorite plays but this is my second one of the afternoon and again this was more of a case of I cannot resist. I was told by a friend earlier in the year that I should not hesitate to pound away on big favorites this season because there had never been so many bad teams in the NFL and by bad teams we don't only mean teams who cannot win more than six games, we mean teams that could go winless all year. There are about 7-8 terrible teams and the balance that once made the NFL the best professional league in the world, is somehow gone. This is the first time Tom Brady comes to Tampa Bay for a game in the regular season and the warm weather can only work this his advantage coming off that blizzard game last week. New England is the kind of team you can trust against bad teams as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus teams with a losing record and they are now 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games played in the month of October. The Patriots have covered the spread in 17 of their last 24 games as a road favorite and they have covered the spread in 23 of their last 32 games coming off a win of 14 points or more the game before. Alright so they have been terrible as double digit point favorites but the Pats need this game, they need a road win and they need a big road win. Tampa Bay is just a bad team as they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. They have covered only 1 of their last 8 games overall and have covered only 1 of their last 12 games played on grass. Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and it's time to continue fading this team and making some cash until they prove that they can win at least one game. Patriots should roll again this week.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.


New England 35, Tampa Bay 16





more to come...

[fsusurfer]

Do you really reasesrch this stuff? The game isn't in Tampa it's in England

[readyfordeals]

Do you really reasesrch this stuff? The game isn't in Tampa it's in England

Relax, Mista has been one of the most consistent guys on here. He has said before that his write ups are for fun or whatever and at times he might be a little buzz.

Anyways, I am sure you weren't trying to be a d!ck and was just pointing out an error which everyone does, ie. 'reasesrch'

BOL on your weekend and Mista, thanks again for your picks. I owe you many beers!

[hourox]

Do you really reasesrch this stuff? The game isn't in Tampa it's in England

Tampa Bay is listed as the home team, for whatever that's worth.

[fsusurfer]

My point is that's a pretty big detail. In his post it states about warm weather in Tampa. It isn't exactly going to be warm where the game is going to be played. Just dont like to see someone state somthing in their post that isn't true, and is quite a big detail which other people may blindly follow.

[michaelj]

who told you this game wasnt in tampa bay fsusurfer dummy

[MistaFlava]

adding...



Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

The Minnesota Vikings are the cream of the crop in the NFC Conference so far this season and believe me Brett Favre has once again taken this league by storm as he has turned the Minnesota Vikings into a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl once the playoffs start. Who the hell would have thought that even with Brett Favre in their lineup, the Vikings would be off to a perfect 6-0 SU start on the season? Well before we go any further with that, I have to keep reminding all of you that not all has always been well for this Vikings team. We would not be talking about them and their undefeated record had it not been for some luck in that home game against San Francisco where they connected on an improbably Hail Mary pass with no time on the clock to win the game after coming from behind. Some key injuries to discuss in this game is the toe injury to CB Antoine Winfield who is a huge part of the Vikings defense with his 26 tackles on the season and 1 interception. After beating Cleveland, Detroit and San Francisco to open the season, again I say that I have not been all that impressed with what Minnesota has done as they have been outyarded by their last three opponents and their 33-31 win over Baltimore last week at home should have been loss #2 on the season but again they got lucky at the end of a home game and somehow the Ravens kicker missed what would have been a game winning field goal with no time on the clock. Well the luck runs out this time in Pittsburgh and I think the Vikings get their asses handed to them. Minnesota comes into this game averaging 33.7 points per game their last three games and they have done that on 379.0 total yards of offens per game and 6.6 yards per play in those games so we know these guys can score. WR Percy Havin might miss this game with an injury but they will be fine. Pittsburgh's defense however is lights out at home and the Steelers have allowed only 20.7 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 261.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on 5.1 yards per play. We all know a big part of the success Favre has had is due to teams having to defend the run potential run threat of RB Adrian Peterson. The Vikings and Peterson however have run the ball for only 106.3 rushing yards per game the last three games and they have done that on 3.8 yards per carry. It's already tough enough to run the ball on Pittsburgh and the Steelers have allowed 72.3 rushing yards per game the last three games on 3.9 yards per carry so we already know this is going to be all about throwing the ball for the Vikings and this is a huge test for Brett Favre and this offense. Favre has completed 75.0% of his passes the last three games for 272.7 passing yards per game and a whopping 9.3 yards per pass attempt in those games. This Steelers defense however is going to have none of that as the Steelers have allowed their last three opponents to complete only 53.5% of their passes for 188.7 passing yards per game and only 5.7 yards per pass attempt so all those big time passes by Favre hitting his receivers like Sidney Rice on deep routes, none of that is going to work in this game and we have yet to see how the Vikings can win games when you take away their ability to just move the ball around the field at free will. Favre has an incredible QB Rating of 125.1 in his last three games on average but the last three QB's that faced the Pittsburgh defense average a QB Rating of only 74.7 in those games. One thing we have seen this season is that teams hesitate to come after Favre because they know how easily he can beat them down field and none of his opponents have really had the confidence to bring all out blitzing in an effort to get him to make the same kind of mistakes he was making last season. He has been sacked only 5 times in his last three games but the Steelers are not afraid to come after QB's and the proof of that is that they can still put up huge numbers on defense even though they managed 12 sacks in their last three games. This is the most pressure Favre is going to have seen all season long and anyone who watched him play last season knows that when under pressure he forces the issue and the Steelers defense is not going to let him off the hook as they have 3 interceptions in their last three games to go with those sacks. Minnesota has not faced any defenses that have the ability to force a bunch of turnovers and the Vikings have been good holding onto the ball, that is true having lost only 1 fumble their last three games but the Steelers are too aggressive and they have forced 7 fumbles their last three games and have jumped and recovered 3 of those fumbles along the way. My only concern would be the third down situations in this game because Minnesota has converted 51.3% of their third down chances the last three games and the Steelers have struggled on third downs allowing their last three opponents to convert 47.5% of their third down chances. The return of Safety Troy Poalamalu should make a huge difference on third downs and in Red Zone defense where the Steelers have also somewhat struggled and will have to be on their top game against a Minnesota offense that is scoring touchdowns in 76.9% of their trips inside the Red Zone the last three games. The Vikings are used to scoring a bunch of points early in games as they average 17.4 points per first half of their last three games but Pittsburgh is going to slow them down enough to win as they have allowed only 6.7 points per first half their last three games. This is the one defense in the NFL that can stop the Minnesota Vikings and beat them quite easily.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the one and only team I can always trust to provide me with top notch defensive performances when they most need it. The Steelers are going up against one of the best teams in the NFL as the Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre come into this game with an undefeated record on the season but I think this is a very bad spot for them and for the first time this season we are going to see this offense really struggle, turn the ball over like they have not done much all year and generally have a miserable time trying to put points on the board. That's all because the Steelers play some lights out football at home, they always have one of the best defenses in the NFL and this type of really cold weather can only favor them in a game like this because everything Minnesota does is indoors and they are not used to the elements. I clearly remember the last time the public doubted the Steelers at home this season and that was the game against the San Diego Chargers when Pittsburgh was a -5.5 point favorite in that game and they managed to win 38-28 although the scoreline is a bit skewed because the Chargers scored a bunch of touchdowns really late and the Steelers actually won that game via blowout. If you are going to beat the Vikings you have to find a way to ouyard them on both sides of the ball and Pittsburgh has outyarded each and everyone one of their opponents so far this season so I know for sure they can get the job done in this game. Pittsburgh comes into this game averaging 31.0 points per game their last three games on a whopping 461.3 total yards of offense per game and 7.2 yards per play in those games. Finally an offense that is probably going to make the Vikings look like a bunch of nobodies. Minnesota's defense has really suffered the last three games as they have allowed 21.3 points per game in those games and have allowed 424.0 total yards of offense per game in those games on 7.0 yards per play. OUCH! Pittsburgh might blow them out here. On the ground the Steelers run attack is back in business and they average 133.0 rushing yards per game the last three games on 4.3 yards per carry and that's great news because they need RB Willie Parker to tear apart this Minnesota defense that has allowed only 95.0 rushing yards per game the last three games but that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry and the door should be open for some huge plays on the ground for Parker. In the air, QB Ben Roethlisberger has completed 73.7% of his passes the last three games for 328.3 passing yards per game and a whopping 9.9 yards per pass attempt in those games. Minnesota cannot stop that without CB Antoine Winfield who is a leader in the secondary. The Vikings have allowed their last three opponents to complete 68.6% of their passes for 329.0 passing yards per game and 8.4 yards per pass attempt in those games which is going to allow the Steelers to pretty much do as they wish while playing tough defense and scoring on some big time plays with their offense. What you have to understand about Pittsburgh is that even if Big Ben is always under pressure and even if he always has guys in his face, that is the kind of game he likes and that is the kind of game he can win as he has been sacked 9 times the last three games despite all those crazy good numbers he has put up offensively. Minnesota is going to come after him as they have 13 sacks in their last three games but who the hell said they could get to him and even if they do that means he is going to have to find other ways to move the ball on short screen passes or setup some play action where he can go deep against a very sketchy Minnesota secondary. Big Ben has a QB Rating of 123.5 his last three games and the last three QB's who faced Minnesota have a QB Rating of 101.2 in those games. I have no idea why there is so much hype about this defense because they have been shredded in recent games but have still found ways to win games. Even with that pressure on him Big Ben has thrown only 2 interceptions in his last three games and he has dealt with the pressure just as well as he has in recent years. Again it's his M.O. to play like that and the more the pressure the merrier, he will make the big plays. So will the Steelers on third downs because they have converted 48.4% of their third down chances the last three games and unlike the Pittsburgh defense who are going to improve with the return of their star on defense, the Vikings lose one of their stars on defense and they have allowed their last three opponents to convert 44.7% of the time in the last three games and that can only get worst from here on in. I also don't think there has been a more impressive Red Zone offense than Pittsburgh's because the Steelers have scored touchdowns in 83.3% of their Red Zone chances the last three games and even though Minnesota has one of the best Red Zone defenses in the NFL having allowed their last three opponents to score touchdowns 12.5% of the time the last three games from inside the Red Zone. However, the Steelers cannot be stopped once they get inside the 20 and the more they can expose the fact that Winfield is out, the more they have the chance of winning this game huge and I think the Steelers really hand it to Minnesota this week. Bank on that and don't be a sheep.

Alright so I am not big on players returning from injuries because they need some time to get back into real game shape and situations. Having said that, the recent return of Troy Polamalu to the Steelers defense is huge and he should be right up to game speed now which means not only are the Steelers going to improve on their third down defense and their Red Zone defense but they are now going to play with that level of energy that is so blatantly missing when their fearless leader is not there creating havoc on the field. Minnesota has been playing against soft defenses all season and again they are luck to have a 6-0 SU record because they should have lost at home to both Baltimore and San Francisco. Minnesota has covered the spread in four straight road games but they have covered only 6 of their last 19 games versus teams that have a winning record at home and they have covered only 5 of their last 17 games following a straight up win the game before. Pittsburgh is always a good bet when playing at home against good teams as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games versus a team that has a winning road record and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games overall. The Steelers have covered 20 of their last 27 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they have covered the spread in 25 of their last 37 games played in the Month of October (with one push in there as well). The guys in Vegas know what the hell they are doing and with Winfield out and Polamalu in, this is going to be all STEELERS BABY!

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games played in October.


Pittsburgh 34, Minnesota 17





more to come...

[MistaFlava]

It don't matter where the Patriots-Buccaneers game is played, the weather is going to be a million times warmer than it was last weekend in New England.

That game is being played in England and the Patriots are going to dominate.

[Ka-Ching]

The game is being played at Wembley Stadium, which happens to be in England.

[Incubus]

adding...



New England Patriots -14.5 (5 Units)


This is the first time Tom Brady comes to Tampa Bay for a game in the regular season and the warm weather can only work this his advantage coming off that blizzard game last week.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.

Isn't his game being played in London, England?



How is Tom Brady going to be at Tampa at the same time? Also, how is London a home game for Tampa Bay?




Please proofread the writeups you steal and pawn off as your own. It will save you further embarrassment in the future.

Good luck!

[awnp]

Thanks for the writeups MF... your analysis is pretty solid on the Pats game. But, the great equalizer is that soccer field they play on over there. Weather's also a factor but in combo with the field there, lots of quirky stuff happens.

[ACE WHO?]

Good Luck Flava. Incubus is trying to send you to jail for plagiarizing. Don't worry that DEVIL can't prove anything. I'm joking you guys. But seriously good luck today Flava!

[Incubus]

Good Luck Flava. Incubus is trying to send you to jail for plagiarizing. Don't worry that DEVIL can't prove anything. I'm joking you guys. But seriously good luck today Flava!

[I_Want_that]

Just went over ur NCAAF plays - hope you continue killing it, GL

[ThatKid13]

Hi hater hi hater