I almost never bet props but this one seems too good to be true

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Go Cubs Go
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Derek Jeter + Alex Rodriguez Combined Home Runs in the World Series:

Under 4.5 (-125) on Sportsbook



Ok, I know these guys have been on fire this postseason, especially A-Rod, but come on. This line should be either 4, or maybe even 3.5.

-Through 9 postseason games, they have combined for 8 home runs. IMO this puts value in the line, as the public has quickly forgotten of A-Rod's postseason struggles throughout his career. Sure, Jeter is clutch in October, but he has never been a true power hitter.

-They will have to face Cliff Lee at least twice (29 HRs allowed in 455 IP L3Y), Pedro (239 HR allowed in 2827.1 IP Career) who seems to be in decent form, and Hamels, who does serve up the long ball, but let's not forget what he did in the WS last year.

-Rodriguez has averaged 0.269 Home runs per game in his career, while Jeter has averaged 0.105. Combined thats 0.374 per game. Keep in mind this series may be as short as 4 games, and 7 at most. That means they will most likey have to combine for almost 1 per game.


-A-Rod and Jeter have combined for 48 Home Runs this year, while Werth and Victorino have combined for 46. The line for Werth+Victorino Home Runs is 3.5 with the under sitting at (-160), while Jeter and A-rod's line is at 4.5 with the under only (-125)

This line is based off the public perception that A-Rod is the best current power hitter in the game, and Jeter is an October Hero (keep in mind the public is more inclined to bet the over on props such as these).

I'm not gonna sit here and tell you guys that this is my LEADPIPE LOCK OF THE CENTURY or DEAD MORTAL LOCK OF MY LIFE.... but bottomline, there's just too much value on the under to not take a stab at it.


Good luck to all :toast:
 

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I think it is a good wager, but I don't have the same level of confidence as you in staying under.
 

Chargers and Padres 4 life
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I like the bet..I can see jeter hitting one..MAYBE..I doubt Aroid hits more than 2..I'm going to scroll through the WS props and see what i can dig up..good luck
 

Rx God
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sounds good, esp. since A-Rod might get some intentional walks. I'd make this bet, if my books had it.
 

Go Cubs Go
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thanks for the kind words guys...


UPDATE: the line has just moved to (-140) for the Under
 

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sounds good, esp. since A-Rod might get some intentional walks. I'd make this bet, if my books had it.




don't count on that w / Manual ...........he will go after hitters ......not saying its a bad bet .......but Charlie will pitch to him ......
 

Rx. Senior
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Great bet. Two in seven games is equal to 46 in 162 games. A good bet for Rodriguez to exceed that, but Jeter is a singles hitter. Yankee stadium is obviously the big factor in favor of it going over, but the combination of the weather and the chance of the series only going four or five games are much greater
 

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C.Lee & C.Sabathia must start for action

Wed 10/28 1007 Philadelphia Phillies (Prop) +3 -326 Over 1½ -5200
7:55PM (EST) 1008 New York Yankees (Prop) -3 +266 Under 1½ +3100


C.Lee & C.Sabathia must start for action

Wed 10/28 1009 Philadelphia Phillies (Prop) +3½ -364 Over 2 -5100
7:55PM (EST) 1010 New York Yankees (Prop) -3½ +304 Under 2 +3050


Worth a shot... I know, hot Yankee bats yadda-yadda, but their bats have been known to go cold, it is Lee who knows them from the AL, first game at home jitters.... you never know! :103631605
 

Go Cubs Go
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UPDATE: this line is closing at Under 4.5 (-220)

At -125, I've locked in 95 cents of value on the dollar, all I can do now is sit back and watch
 

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I played it large. Thanks for pointing it out. I played this prop larger than almost any of my regular bets. Let's hope it works out! BOL :grandmais
 

"Here we go again"
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wow.... great value.


Too bad sportsbook limited my bets to $25 or so. ~~:<<
 

Go Cubs Go
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I played it large. Thanks for pointing it out. I played this prop larger than almost any of my regular bets. Let's hope it works out! BOL :grandmais
Nice, glad I could help. Let's cash this!!!!


So far so good through 1 game :toast:
 

Go Cubs Go
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this one is looking very good boys, 1 homer for arod (that had to be reviewed because it was so close) and a goose egg for jeter thus far... 1 combined through 5 games, they need 4 in the final 2 (or 1) and i obviously like my chances against that
 

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