Betting Against Ivey to Win 2009 WSOP

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[ Since Ivey is somewhat short-stacked, and Bodog lists him as 4:1
to win, it seems like a no-brainer to me to bet against Ivey to win it all ]

Ivey win would be a bookmaker's bath


It appears at least one group is rooting against Phil Ivey. By PokerListings.com
Online bookmaker PartyBets says a Phil Ivey win in the 2009 World Series of Poker Main Event could break a lot of bookies.

"Ivey will be a terrible result for us and we think that the industry as a whole will have massive liabilities," a spokesperson for the PartyPoker sister site said.
"A big name on the final table of the WSOP is always bad news for bookmakers and, in fairness; they don't come much bigger than Ivey."
Despite the fact he's currently seventh in chips coming into the Nov. 7 final, PartyBets says it's sitting on a "significant six figure liability" on Phil Ivey winning the WSOP Main Event.
The odds on Ivey taking down the tournament are currently at 6:1, but were at 175:1 earlier this year and sat at 100:1 as the Main Event got underway.
"175:1 as a starting price for any player in a field of 6,494 players is short to say the least," the spokesperson said. "His true odds could have been double that, but we had to price him prohibitively short because punters back the name. We have our fingers crossed that he doesn't pull off a remarkable comeback. The bottom line is that for us it has to be anybody apart from Ivey."
After the Main Event final table was set, bookmakers Betfair and Bodog both told PokerListings the majority of the action was being bet on Ivey to win, pushing the odds down significantly.
Betfair currently lists Ivey as 7:1 and Bodog has him at 4:1.
PartyBets believes it is not the only site that will take a bath if the Team Full Tilt pro pulls of a victory.
"I'm sure we're not the only ones quaking in our boots," the spokesperson said. "It doesn't take long to get six figure liabilities with three figure prices. This would be the worst poker result for a bookmaker in history. Imagine the fear of those that Ivey may have backed himself with, they'll make our concerns look trivial."
PartyBets.com currently has chip leader Darvin Moon as the 4:1 favourite, followed by Eric Buchman at 5:1.
Ivey only has only a slim chip lead on Everest Poker qualifier Antoine Saout, but Saout is a 17:1 shot.
Despite a bevy of success since booking their seats at the final table, James Akenhead is still listed at 15:1 and Kevin Schaffel stands at 13:1.
PartyBets lists Jeff Shulman and Steven Begleiter at 7:1, while Joseph Cada sits at 13:1.
PartyBets customers can also bet on the winning hand, the final river card and its color and suit.
 

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If Ivey doubles up within the first hour of play he has a legit shot. If not the blinds will absolutely kill him.
 

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you shouldn't be even be bookmaking if this scenario will "break" you.
 

Rx. Senior
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you shouldn't be even be bookmaking if this scenario will "break" you.

Anytime the books lose one cent on a contest -- or even win less than what they planned, they feel "broken"

The good ones more than make up for it next time

If Ivey wins that means more people thinking 100-1 in a 10 000 player is reasonable

Based on chip stacks Ivey should be close to 20-1, Bodog is now 7-2 (with a $50 max). This $10 player would lay several dimes on the field at anything around -450
 

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Betfair WSOP Markets

Guys:

Here is the Betfair market for WSOP winner.

$51K CAD Matched so far...at 9a.m. ET on October 31st.

You can Bet FOR or AGAINST ANY PLAYER TO WIN:
Current Odds to Bet FOR at 9a.m. ET on October 31st: (All Odds are placed there by others...)

Darvin Moon - 4.1 to 1
Eric Buchman - 4.4-1
Phil Ivey - 5.8-1
Steve Begleiter - 7.2-1
Jeff Shulman - 7-1
Kevin Schaffel - 16-1
Joe Cada - 12-1
James Akenhead - 15-1
Antoine Saout - 19-1



Current Odds to Bet AGAINST EACH PLAYER... (All Odds are placed there by others...)

Darvin Moon - 1 to 4.3
Eric Buchman - 1 to 4.6
Phil Ivey - 1 to 6.2
Steve Begleiter - 1 to 7.4
Jeff Shulman - 1 to 7.2
Kevin Schaffel - 1 to 16.5
Joseph Cada - 1 to 14
James Akenhead - 1 to 18
Antoine Saout - 1 to 21


CHECK OUT HOW IT WORKS HERE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d05joU_FSYo

Here are the rules:

At the stated time this market will be turned in-play. The FINAL TABLE is scheduled to take place from the 7th November 2009. Customers should be aware they are NOT allowed to bet on this event if they are physically present in Australia, Austria and Germany.

On November 7th, 2009, the following nine players will return with the following chip counts:

Darvin Moon - 58,930,000
Eric Buchman - 34,800,000
Steven Begleiter - 29,885,000
Jeff Shulman - 19,580,000
Joseph Cada - 13,215,000
Kevin Schaffel - 12,390,000
Phil Ivey - 9,765,000
Antoine Saout - 9,500,000
James Akenhead - 6,800,000
 

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