Game 3

I'm on the Phillies +110 large

Hamels peripherals are every bit as good as last year and only his last outing was one to really concern you. Still has good velocity on the fastball and the changeup is devastating. He's had some bad luck where guys like Manny have sat change and hit some decent pitches out the park with men on base...and just overall a lot of balls are being put in play and turning into hits that last year were not. To everyone else's eye he is not the same pitcher, personally I don't see it. He's home, Phils are home and they take on lefty Andy Pettite. Pettitte, like Hamels has been laboring only with better fotune...in typical Pettitte fashion he has seemed to be able to get a huge double-play anytime he has been in trouble and has been limiting his walks while getting some strikeouts. He, on the other hand, does not pass the eye test to me as I have seen him leave tons of pitches over the heart of the plate and seems to get away with it. He does have good numbers vs. many of the Phils but you need to realize that the sample size is so small as to be meaningless. He's not the type of dominant lefty that shuts down all lefties (ie Utley and Howard) and while he has pitched better on the road than at home this year, historically that is not the case.

Absolutely huge betting opportunity here with the ultimate buy-low on Hamels and the sell-high on Pettitte. You're getting positive juice on the home team in a series I expect to go 7. Everyone talks about the Yanks being tough at the stadium, well Philly is a very good home field as well. I knew they would give me an opportunity to bet this game before the series, but I thought they'd charge me juice in the form of -110 to -120. Can't believe I'm getting +110 and personally I think the fair line is -150 to -160 in favor of the Phils.

Good luck.

While I agree with your Buy low, sell high comment on the pitching matchup, I disagree with your pick.

-Yankes hit .287 as a team averaging 5.6 runs per game against lefties.

-Hamels failed to post even a .500 record on one of the best offensive teams in baseball, probably the best in the National League. His 4.32 ERA was over a full run higher than last year's.. He may have some good stuff, but he hasn't been able to use it effectively.

-In the playoffs, he has given up 3 runs or more in every starts, and has failed to make it through the 6th in any start.

-Pettitte is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA this postseason an is literally the winningest pitcher in MLB postseason history.

-Also I think the Yankees have a better bullpen than the Phillies.. If theyre winning after the 7th.. Goodnight.

Go Yanks.

-Good stat, Yanks are a very good hitting team, I agree and guys like Jeter and A-Rod crush lefties / guys like Matsui hit lefties about as well...fair...
-Pitcher W/L records are irrelevant to me. His full-season ERA I also consider irrelevant and there are better pitching stats than ERA that I would prefer to utilize, personally.
-True of his playoff run, but as I noted my point is his peripherals are still very good and a little luck may be on its way toward his runs allowed column..obviously he could go out and get rocked, that's baseball...
-Pettitte has pitched well so far this post-season as I noted. The fact that he is the winningest pitcher in postseason history is based more on chance and team and again I don't really care for pitcher's W/L records, it's a poor "stat" in my opinion.
-Yanks bullpen has been nothing but sketchy all post-season, unless Girardi is willing to throw Mo over an inning when they have three games in a row scheduled (highly unlikely) then you only get one inning out of him. Its anyone's guess who he would turn to in the 8th inning at this point as Hughes looks lost. I'm sure you could look up the stats and they would probably show the Phils bullpen to have been better in the post-season..thing is, I agree with you..I think they should just stick to Joba/Hughes/Mo and they'll be alright...and the Phils pen is due to blow one, this could very well be it, though obviously I'd bet against it.

Just how I would re-buttle that, good luck...
In a sense, I hope you are right. I am a Yankees fan after all.

Haha.. So your kinda hedging on a personal level? Thats great..

Anways I agree with you as far as W's go for pitchers.. I hate them as a stat.. Hate arguing with people over something like: A pitcher on a 100 win team is 18-10 with a 4.45 ERA is better than a pitcher on a 60 win team with a 2.80 ERA that sits at 9-8.. So dumb..

Anyways the thing is Hamels is that guy, though. The one getting all that run support, yet hes not even .500.. Now THAT is weak and something that can be made a note of, because it IS his fault.

As far as other postseason stats/records go, I hate Derek Jeter (I think he's the most overrated player in MLB history, next to Babe Ruth). But what Mariano has done can't be ignored, regardless of "chance".. As for Pettitte.. Yeah.. The win total is thanks to all his opportunities, but he has capitalized on the chances he's gotten.

Mo went 2 innings yesterday (Thursday) but had rest friday.. If the Yankees lose or Blowout the Phillies in one of these next 2, Mo can be used to 2 innings, since he wont be needed in a loss or blowout.

Since the beginning of the series I've always looked as game 3 as a Yankees win.. Chalked up before the series started. If I was a tout I'd be selling this as my "World Series Lock of the Year".. But I'm not.. Then again anything that looks that easy usually goes up in flames..Really should stay away from the "L" word, but what the hell..

I have the Yankees in the series so its not the end of the world if they lose game 3.

Go Yanks. Gl with your bet.

Sorry bout the bet, but at least you're a Yanks fan..