Submitted by nick on Wed, 2009-11-04 02:00
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Time once again to see what the sharps (professional wagerers in Las Vegas and Reno) are thinking about this weekend's NFL games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps and oddsmakers breathed a sigh of relief last week when underdogs started covering again. Dogs were 8-5 ATS, with pointspread victories for double digit dogs going to San Francisco (+13) at Indianapolis. Oakland (+16) at San Diego, and Atlanta (+11) at New Orleans. Some got (+10) with Carolina over Arizona too, a game the dog won outright. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I thought that would encourage many sharps to be a big more aggressive with their underdog bets this Sunday. As you'll see when we run through the games, that's exactly what happened. Even I was taken aback by how aggressively sharps were betting dogs EARLY this week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As always, games are presented in rotation order:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE: The line here opened at Jacksonville -7, and dropped fairly quickly to -6½. Jacksonville hasn't been playing very well this year (with a few exceptions). Sharps figured the public probably wasn't going to drive this line any higher than 7...so they might as well step in on the dog right away. Remember that the Jags went overtime on this field with lowly St. Louis...then lost badly to previously winless Tennessee last week. Kansas City is an ugly dog the sharps have no trouble backing because the favorite has been playing so poorly. Note though that they line didn't come down any more than a half point...so the bet is Kansas City +7 from sharps, not Kansas City +6½. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: This is one of those games that's going to sit right near the field goal. Everyone will bet Baltimore -2½ with extra juice, or Cincinnati +3 with extra juice. Different stores have one or the other of those prices for the most part. The sharps I've been talking to are impressed with Cincinnati this year, and are hoping the public hits revenge-minded Baltimore Sunday so their Bengal game day bets will have more value. Note that Baltimore was a very big syndicate play last Sunday morning at home against Denver. Easy winner in a 30-7 victory against a cheap line. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: We have another big move on the dog here, as Houston opened at +10 but dropped down to +8½. That's a bit of a surprise because sharps know that the squares like betting Indianapolis and Peyton Manning at whatever the price. There was fear here though that other sharps would take out the favorable early line...so EVERYONE went ahead and jumped on Houston. The Colts didn't cover as a big favorite last week vs. San Francisco. Houston and San Francisco are similar teams in the Power Ratings. Sharps will buy some more on Sunday if the public drives the line back to ten. There isn't much to talk about with Over/Unders this week. The total here dropped from 49 down to 47½, with an expectation that improving Houston will make it a tight game, and that the Colts will try to run clock just like last week to grind out a straight up win. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WASHINGTON AT ATLANTA: Not much has happened here. It's interesting to note that sharps DIDN'T jump on Washington +10 the way they did Houston. They're not fond of the slumping Redskins at all. They might take +11 or better if they see it on game day because of respect for Washington's defense. Usually the sharps do wait on dog selections. This week is an exception in that regard. I can safely say that sharps won't lay the big spread with Atlanta. They'll probably be on Washington Sunday afternoon at a better price than +10. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GREEN BAY AT TAMPA BAY: Another double digit dog sees the spread go down! Tampa Bay was +10 on the opener, but is now +9½ in most places. Sharps figured squares WOULDN'T be betting Green Bay as a pricey road favorite, particularly the week after the demoralizing loss to Minnesota and Brett Favre. If +10 is as good as it's going to get, you might as well take it early. Sharps aren't impressed at all with Tampa Bay this year. Some of the ugly dog covers from last week has given them confidence to step out on a few more ugly dogs this week. Note that Tampa Bay had a bye last week too. This is really more of an anti-Green Bay bet than a pro-Tampa Bay bet. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARIZONA AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -3 with some juice, but the early betting support has been for Arizona. So, now you have to lay a little extra to get the three points with the Cardinals. I don't think this line will move off the three. Squares still like betting Chicago, particularly at cheap home field prices. Be aware that the sharps like Arizona at that number. We have a total drop here of a point. The number opened at 45' and went down to 44'. There's always the potential for weather to help out at Soldier Field in November. Plus, Arizona's playing lower scoring games this year than last. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: Not much interest here yet, with the Patriots laying 10½ points. Had the game opened at -10, a lot of sharps would have taken early positions on New England -10, then bought back on the dog once the public drove the line higher. There's no motivation to do that at 10½. I do expect the public to bet Tom Brady on Sunday since this team has gone back to blowing people out again. I think the sharps will step in on Miami close to kickoff. We have our biggest totals move of the week here, with an opener of 48' falling down to 46½. The totals guys know how little offense Miami really had last week! The team scored three non-offensive TD's. Weather may help too, though New England has mastered moving the ball in bad weather on this field. I think that move is more about Miami's offensive struggles last week rather than weather potential. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: Boy the sharps are going to be rooting hard for the dogs this weekend. This game opened at -14½, and has come all the way down to -13 for the Saints. Why wait for a big line when you're already getting two touchdowns or more! Sharps didn't want to wait to see if squares would lay 14½ or more with the Saints. New Orleans didn't cover a big spread last week, and Carolina finally played a good game. Pro bettors made this line -13 themselves...and jumped in quick at +14½ and +14. We've been doing these reports for a few years now. This is the FIRST time this has EVER happened, where this many went down from the openers. Sharps are apparently more confident than the oddsmakers that the tide is turning away from blowout covers for favorites. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DETROIT AT SEATTLE: Here we have a line moving up! This game opened at Seattle -9½, and sharps took an early position to drive it up to -10. Squares really aren't that fond of Seattle this year...but they do like betting against Detroit. Sharps are hoping for a middle possibility where the game lands on the key number of ten. Should the public take this line to -11 or so, I think we'll see sharps come back big over the top on Detroit at the better number. Seattle's like Jacksonville, one of those teams that you can't really trust as big favorites even if they're playing a really bad team. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TENNESSEE AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco's another team sharps don't trust as a favorite. This line opened at -6, but has fallen all the way down to -4! Maybe the sharps believe Vince Young has brought new life to Tennessee. You have to admit that a line of San Francisco -6 or -4 would have seemed crazy before the season started. Oddsmakers did a very poor job this week of anticipating how sharps would bet the early numbers. But, I have to admit they did a good job of avoiding teaser prices again. You're just not going to see many lines in the 1½ to 2½ or 7½ to 8½ ranges. Oddsmakers would rather have sharps on dogs +10 or +11 rather than favorites -2½ in a boatload of teaser plays. That's why a lot of these openers are at 9' or higher when they might have been at -8 or -8' in prior seasons. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN DIEGO AT NY GIANTS: Big support for the Giants here at -3 and -4. I'm currently seeing -4½. Sharps know the West Coast teams very well because we get a lot of media coverage of the California teams in Nevada. Many have told me they're not impressed at all with this year's group. And, Norv Turner has never been a popular coach amongst sharps. This was an anti-San Diego bet because of the cross-country travel, with extra support coming in for a playoff caliber team that just lost three games in a row. This is more par for the course. Sharps knew the public would bet the Giants over the weekend. They liked the Giants too, so they bet early at the most favorable lines. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: Philly opened at -3 and is still there. There's extra juice now on the Cowboys plus the field goal though...so the sharps do like the dog here at the early number. The public likes betting the Cowboys, so sharps went ahead and took the pick-em line figuring it's the best they're going to get. The total has dropped from 49 down to 47½. This can definitely be a site where weather is an influence. This prime time game should have a playoff feel to it as well with both teams in the thick of the NFC East race. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PITTSBURGH AT DENVER: Another game that's going to hang around a field goal. I've seen Pittsburgh -2½ with extra juice, and Monday Night home dog Denver at +3 with extra juice. Many sportsbooks are really trying to avoid those lines at 2½ because of teasers, so most places will probably have a 3 up all day Monday. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, THAT was an interesting week needless to say! Normally sharps either take position on favorites early, or pass early on the dogs knowing they can come back at a better price on Sunday. This week, sharps were over SEVERAL dogs at the opening numbers. It will be very interesting to see if professional wagerers have timed the market correctly with their betting strategies this week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK'S NFL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Time once again to see what the sharps (professional wagerers in Las Vegas and Reno) are thinking about this weekend's NFL games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps and oddsmakers breathed a sigh of relief last week when underdogs started covering again. Dogs were 8-5 ATS, with pointspread victories for double digit dogs going to San Francisco (+13) at Indianapolis. Oakland (+16) at San Diego, and Atlanta (+11) at New Orleans. Some got (+10) with Carolina over Arizona too, a game the dog won outright. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I thought that would encourage many sharps to be a big more aggressive with their underdog bets this Sunday. As you'll see when we run through the games, that's exactly what happened. Even I was taken aback by how aggressively sharps were betting dogs EARLY this week. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As always, games are presented in rotation order:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE: The line here opened at Jacksonville -7, and dropped fairly quickly to -6½. Jacksonville hasn't been playing very well this year (with a few exceptions). Sharps figured the public probably wasn't going to drive this line any higher than 7...so they might as well step in on the dog right away. Remember that the Jags went overtime on this field with lowly St. Louis...then lost badly to previously winless Tennessee last week. Kansas City is an ugly dog the sharps have no trouble backing because the favorite has been playing so poorly. Note though that they line didn't come down any more than a half point...so the bet is Kansas City +7 from sharps, not Kansas City +6½. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: This is one of those games that's going to sit right near the field goal. Everyone will bet Baltimore -2½ with extra juice, or Cincinnati +3 with extra juice. Different stores have one or the other of those prices for the most part. The sharps I've been talking to are impressed with Cincinnati this year, and are hoping the public hits revenge-minded Baltimore Sunday so their Bengal game day bets will have more value. Note that Baltimore was a very big syndicate play last Sunday morning at home against Denver. Easy winner in a 30-7 victory against a cheap line. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: We have another big move on the dog here, as Houston opened at +10 but dropped down to +8½. That's a bit of a surprise because sharps know that the squares like betting Indianapolis and Peyton Manning at whatever the price. There was fear here though that other sharps would take out the favorable early line...so EVERYONE went ahead and jumped on Houston. The Colts didn't cover as a big favorite last week vs. San Francisco. Houston and San Francisco are similar teams in the Power Ratings. Sharps will buy some more on Sunday if the public drives the line back to ten. There isn't much to talk about with Over/Unders this week. The total here dropped from 49 down to 47½, with an expectation that improving Houston will make it a tight game, and that the Colts will try to run clock just like last week to grind out a straight up win. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WASHINGTON AT ATLANTA: Not much has happened here. It's interesting to note that sharps DIDN'T jump on Washington +10 the way they did Houston. They're not fond of the slumping Redskins at all. They might take +11 or better if they see it on game day because of respect for Washington's defense. Usually the sharps do wait on dog selections. This week is an exception in that regard. I can safely say that sharps won't lay the big spread with Atlanta. They'll probably be on Washington Sunday afternoon at a better price than +10. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GREEN BAY AT TAMPA BAY: Another double digit dog sees the spread go down! Tampa Bay was +10 on the opener, but is now +9½ in most places. Sharps figured squares WOULDN'T be betting Green Bay as a pricey road favorite, particularly the week after the demoralizing loss to Minnesota and Brett Favre. If +10 is as good as it's going to get, you might as well take it early. Sharps aren't impressed at all with Tampa Bay this year. Some of the ugly dog covers from last week has given them confidence to step out on a few more ugly dogs this week. Note that Tampa Bay had a bye last week too. This is really more of an anti-Green Bay bet than a pro-Tampa Bay bet. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARIZONA AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -3 with some juice, but the early betting support has been for Arizona. So, now you have to lay a little extra to get the three points with the Cardinals. I don't think this line will move off the three. Squares still like betting Chicago, particularly at cheap home field prices. Be aware that the sharps like Arizona at that number. We have a total drop here of a point. The number opened at 45' and went down to 44'. There's always the potential for weather to help out at Soldier Field in November. Plus, Arizona's playing lower scoring games this year than last. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: Not much interest here yet, with the Patriots laying 10½ points. Had the game opened at -10, a lot of sharps would have taken early positions on New England -10, then bought back on the dog once the public drove the line higher. There's no motivation to do that at 10½. I do expect the public to bet Tom Brady on Sunday since this team has gone back to blowing people out again. I think the sharps will step in on Miami close to kickoff. We have our biggest totals move of the week here, with an opener of 48' falling down to 46½. The totals guys know how little offense Miami really had last week! The team scored three non-offensive TD's. Weather may help too, though New England has mastered moving the ball in bad weather on this field. I think that move is more about Miami's offensive struggles last week rather than weather potential. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: Boy the sharps are going to be rooting hard for the dogs this weekend. This game opened at -14½, and has come all the way down to -13 for the Saints. Why wait for a big line when you're already getting two touchdowns or more! Sharps didn't want to wait to see if squares would lay 14½ or more with the Saints. New Orleans didn't cover a big spread last week, and Carolina finally played a good game. Pro bettors made this line -13 themselves...and jumped in quick at +14½ and +14. We've been doing these reports for a few years now. This is the FIRST time this has EVER happened, where this many went down from the openers. Sharps are apparently more confident than the oddsmakers that the tide is turning away from blowout covers for favorites. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DETROIT AT SEATTLE: Here we have a line moving up! This game opened at Seattle -9½, and sharps took an early position to drive it up to -10. Squares really aren't that fond of Seattle this year...but they do like betting against Detroit. Sharps are hoping for a middle possibility where the game lands on the key number of ten. Should the public take this line to -11 or so, I think we'll see sharps come back big over the top on Detroit at the better number. Seattle's like Jacksonville, one of those teams that you can't really trust as big favorites even if they're playing a really bad team. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TENNESSEE AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco's another team sharps don't trust as a favorite. This line opened at -6, but has fallen all the way down to -4! Maybe the sharps believe Vince Young has brought new life to Tennessee. You have to admit that a line of San Francisco -6 or -4 would have seemed crazy before the season started. Oddsmakers did a very poor job this week of anticipating how sharps would bet the early numbers. But, I have to admit they did a good job of avoiding teaser prices again. You're just not going to see many lines in the 1½ to 2½ or 7½ to 8½ ranges. Oddsmakers would rather have sharps on dogs +10 or +11 rather than favorites -2½ in a boatload of teaser plays. That's why a lot of these openers are at 9' or higher when they might have been at -8 or -8' in prior seasons. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SAN DIEGO AT NY GIANTS: Big support for the Giants here at -3 and -4. I'm currently seeing -4½. Sharps know the West Coast teams very well because we get a lot of media coverage of the California teams in Nevada. Many have told me they're not impressed at all with this year's group. And, Norv Turner has never been a popular coach amongst sharps. This was an anti-San Diego bet because of the cross-country travel, with extra support coming in for a playoff caliber team that just lost three games in a row. This is more par for the course. Sharps knew the public would bet the Giants over the weekend. They liked the Giants too, so they bet early at the most favorable lines. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: Philly opened at -3 and is still there. There's extra juice now on the Cowboys plus the field goal though...so the sharps do like the dog here at the early number. The public likes betting the Cowboys, so sharps went ahead and took the pick-em line figuring it's the best they're going to get. The total has dropped from 49 down to 47½. This can definitely be a site where weather is an influence. This prime time game should have a playoff feel to it as well with both teams in the thick of the NFC East race. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PITTSBURGH AT DENVER: Another game that's going to hang around a field goal. I've seen Pittsburgh -2½ with extra juice, and Monday Night home dog Denver at +3 with extra juice. Many sportsbooks are really trying to avoid those lines at 2½ because of teasers, so most places will probably have a 3 up all day Monday. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, THAT was an interesting week needless to say! Normally sharps either take position on favorites early, or pass early on the dogs knowing they can come back at a better price on Sunday. This week, sharps were over SEVERAL dogs at the opening numbers. It will be very interesting to see if professional wagerers have timed the market correctly with their betting strategies this week. [/FONT]
