CURENT PROJECTIONS---
http://www.spencerdailyreporter.com/blogs/1228/entry/31577/
New Bowl Projection Roundup (11/24)
Posted Tuesday, November 24, 2009, at 12:00 PM
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The people in Oklahoma care about Bedlam - the rivalry game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
The people of Iowa should care about it too, based on the latest roundup of bowl projections. We'll get into some detail, but feel free to skim down for the various predictions.
Here's what we've been able to gather:
1) The Sugar Bowl is the anchor conference for the SEC, much like the Rose Bowl is the anchor bowl for the Big 10 and Pac 10. As a result, the Sugar Bowl gets the first pick of at-large teams because it would lose BCS No. 1 Florida (or Alabama) to the BCS Championship Game. They would most likely take the Florida-Alabama loser as an at-large team.
2) The Fiesta Bowl gets the Big 12 champ in most years and would get the second pick of at-large teams because they would lose its champion, presumptive BCS No. 2 Texas, to the National Championship game.
3) There is a growing sentiment that the Fiesta Bowl may be nudged by its anchor conference, the Big 12, to take Oklahoma State to replace Texas. That assumes the Cowboys beat the Sooners (pay attention to Bedlam) and the Longhorns win out. A couple of projections have the Fiesta Bowl going with Penn State instead of Iowa. Most, however, think the Hawkeyes will get the nod if the Fiesta goes with a Big 10 team.
3) The Orange Bowl gets the next pick and if the second Big 10 team isn't taken by the Fiesta (no conference can have a third team in the BCS games), the folks in Miami are going to jump at the chance to have Iowa or Penn State. They would not take TCU, the Cincinnati-Pitt winner or Boise State unless they absolutely have to. While the Fiesta is leaning Iowa, we're getting the impression the Orange Bowl will lean Penn State. So, if the Fiesta goes with Oklahoma State, Iowa is probably Capital One Bowl-bound.
4) This is for the Iowa State fans. If the Fiesta or another BCS bowl takes Oklahoma State, everyone in the Big 12 Conference will move up at spot in the bowl pecking order. Right now, most project the Cyclones in the Independence Bowl, Dec. 28 (Shreveport, La.). South Carolina and Georgia are the most common potential opponents projected.
5) Staying with Iowa State, the Cyclones have another game to pay attention to. Kansas sits at 5-6 and becomes bowl-eligible with a win at home against Missouri. That could knock the Cyclones down the pecking order. If Oklahoma State isn't a second BCS team and Kansas qualifies, it could get sketchy for Iowa State.
Iowa does have one escape hatch. The Hawkeyes are No. 11 in the latest BCS standings and Penn State is No. 13. Teams have to be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS bowl berth, so if a group of teams push the Lions to No. 15 or lower in the next two weeks, Iowa should have no problem getting in. Again, if the Fiesta doesn't take a second Big 10 team, the Orange likely will.
I can't pretend to know that the Fiesta Bowl officials are thinking, but to me it would make sense to use the first pick on Iowa or Penn State. Then, if they want to keep the Big 12 happy, I would send a signal to the Big 12 Conference commissioner and Oklahoma State to the effect of: "Don't fret, if one of the other BCS bowls doesn't take you, we'll look out for you when our second pick comes around." I really don't think the Big 12 would be upset with "settling" for an Orange Bowl berth, but people more plugged in than I am (that would be just about everybody) mention Oklahoma State being the Fiesta's first pick as a scenario.
Enough from me:
Here are the projections. Any other finds will be added to the bottom of the blog as a comment. You can also weigh in if you'd like. I don't bite:
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CBS - Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4 (Glendale, Ariz.) vs. Boise State
* ESPN, Mark Schlabach - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State
* Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State
* FOX, through Scout/College Football News - Fiesta Bowl vs. Boise State
* Sporting News, Matt Hayes - Orange Bowl, Jan. 5, (Miami) vs. Georgia Tech
* Sporting News, Dave Curtis - Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1, (Orlando) vs. Mississippi
* NBC sports, through College Football Talk's John Tamanaha - Capital One Bowl vs. Mississippi
* ESPN, Bruce Feldman - Capital One Bowl vs. Mississippi
Note: ESPN's Big 10 blogger Adam Rittenberg still has the Hawkeyes going to the Fiesta Bowl against a "BCS team."
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Now, for the Cyclones:
* ESPN, Mark Schlabach - Independence Bowl, Dec. 28 (Shreveport, La.) vs. South Carolina
* CBS - Independence Bowl vs. South Carolina
* ESPN, Bruce Feldman - Independence Bowl vs. Georgia
* Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel - Independence Bowl vs. Georgia
* FOX, through Scout/College Football News - Independence Bowl vs. Arkansas
* NBC sports, through College Football Talk's John Tamanaha - picks "Iowa State or UCLA" in the Humanitarian Bowl (Dec. 30) vs. Idaho. (Just pick one, John.)
* Sporting News, Dave Curtis - Independence Bowl vs. Kentucky
Note: Matt Hayes at the Sporting News only did BCS game projections.