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Spinning records to see which Super Bowl contenders sound good
[SIZE=-1]02:35 PM CST on Tuesday, November 24, 2009
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Column by RICK GOSSELIN / The Dallas Morning News | rgosselin@dallasnews.com
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Rick Gosselin Archive | Blog | Bio | E-mail
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If you play to win championships in the NFL, the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins can stop playing now.
Both are 3-7, and no team that has ever opened a season 3-7 has won a Super Bowl.
If you play to win championships, the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers also can stop playing now. Both are 4-6, and no team that has opened a season 4-6 has gone on to win a Super Bowl.
The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have opened the season 5-5. If you play to win championships … the Ravens and Dolphins are welcome to continue playing. Of the 43 Super Bowl champions, there is one that opened a season 5-5 and went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
That was the 2001 New England Patriots, who lost three of their first four games that season plus their starting quarterback. It took eight starts for Tom Brady to get settled in as Drew Bledsoe’s replacement, which landed the Patriots at 5-5. Then New England closed the season with nine consecutive victories, capped by a stunning 20-17 upset of the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl.
I annually study an NFL season at the 10-game mark. That usually takes us to the Thanksgiving holiday and gives me a fairly accurate pulse of the league. The contenders have emerged from the pretenders by this point. There are 18 teams at 5-5 or better this season. Stamp them as the contenders.
As a word of caution to the 10-0 Colts and Saints, only 14 times in the last 30 years has the team with the best record at the 10-game mark won the Super Bowl. The 2008 Titans, 2007 Patriots and 2005 Colts are the last three 10-0 teams before this season, and all failed to win the championship.
Here’s how the contenders stack up:
10-0 candidates: Indianapolis, New Orleans
Last 10-0 champion: 2006 Colts
Analysis: Those Titans, Patriots and Colts are not alone. There have been eight other teams that opened a season 10-0 in the Super Bowl era and only five won the Lombardi Trophy: the 1998 Broncos, 1991 Redskins, 1990 Giants, 1985 Bears and 1972 Dolphins. In addition to the Titans, Patriots and Colts, others who failed after 10-0 starts were the 1990 49ers, 1984 Dolphins, 1975 Vikings and the 1969 Rams.
9-1 candidate: Minnesota
Last 9-1 champion: 1997 Broncos
Analysis: Eight teams won Super Bowls after 9-1 starts, but only one has in the last 19 years. That was John Elway's Broncos, who started 9-1 but wound up qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card with a 12-4 record.
8-2 candidates: None
Last 8-2 champion: 2003 Patriots
Analysis: This is where you want to be situated in pursuit of a Super Bowl. More teams (12) have won the Lombardi Trophy with 8-2 starts than any other 10-game record. The 2003 Patriots, 2002 Bucs and 1999 Rams did it in the last 10 years. The 1995 and 1992 Cowboys also used 8-2 starts as springboards for Super Bowls. Incredibly, there isn’t a single team at 8-2 this season.
7-3 candidates: Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, San Diego
Last 7-3 champion: 2008 Steelers
Analysis: The last two Super Bowl champions and three of the last four all sat under the radar with 7-3 records at this point. Nine teams overall surged from 7-3 starts to win Super Bowls, including the 1993 Cowboys.
6-4 candidates: Denver, Green Bay, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
Last 6-4 champion: 2000 Ravens
Analysis: Those Ravens won their final 11 games playing suffocating defense in claiming their lone Super Bowl. Baltimore set a record for the fewest points allowed in a 16-game season (165), then gave up only one offensive touchdown in four playoff games. The 1988 49ers also won the Super Bowl after a 6-4 start. But that San Francisco team had Joe Montana.
5-5 candidates: Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Miami
Last 5-5 champion: 2001 Patriots
Analysis: Tom Brady blossomed into a franchise quarterback in 2001, bailing out the Patriots. Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston and Miami all have young quarterbacks capable of blossoming in Matt Ryan (Falcons), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Matt Schaub (Texans) and Chad Henne (Dolphins).
If the Super Bowl was played tomorrow
Who can argue with the Colts and Saints? Every week there are upsets. You see the Bengals and Eagles losing to the Raiders, the Steelers losing to the Chiefs, the Packers losing to the Bucs and the Cardinals losing to the 49ers. Parity is rampant in the NFL everywhere except Indianapolis and New Orleans. You can appreciate the machine-like efficiency of the Colts and Saints in marching through their schedules with perfection.
Looking back at my weekend in Baltimore
Baltimore did it right, building its baseball and football stadiums adjacent to each other on the outskirts of downtown, walking distance to the Inner Harbor. Mass transit also delivers fans to each stadium. There are eight such stadium complexes involving the NFL, where the baseball and football facilities sit across parking lots from each other. Cincinnati, Detroit and Pittsburgh have their two stadiums right downtown, Baltimore and Seattle are on the edge of downtown and Philadelphia a little farther out, just few train stops away. Both the Cowboys/Rangers and Chiefs/Royals have their complexes in outlying areas.
Looking ahead at my weekend in Minneapolis
How does the Los Angeles Vikings sound?
Talks between the Vikings and city’s sports commission took a turn for the absolute worst last week when the NFL team vowed not to sign an extension to continue playing in the Metrodome. The sports authority then threatened to charge the Vikings $4 million annual rent if the team did not sign the extension.
The Vikings have been playing in the Metrodome since 1982, making it the 11th oldest stadium in the 32-team league. It slides to ninth in 2010 when both the Giants and Jets move into their new home.
The Metrodome is one of only two stadiums in the league that does not have club seats. With a capacity of only 64,000, it’s the 27th smallest stadium in the NFL. That combination makes it difficult financially for the Vikings to compete, even though the team has been playing rent free in the Metrodome since 2002. Their lease expires in 2011.
The baseball Twins and University of Minnesota Golden Gophers have new stadiums, and the Vikings claim it’s their turn. That’s also what Art Modell claimed in the 1990s after the baseball Indians were given a new home. The city of Cleveland didn’t listen, so Modell moved the Browns to Baltimore where that city would build him a new stadium.
Los Angeles has been without the NFL since the Raiders and Rams left after the 1994 season. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill in October that finally paved the way for the construction of a new stadium in Los Angeles. Could it be the next home of the Vikings?
Rick Gosselin shares his NFL analysis Wednesdays through Fridays on the NFL blog.
Rick Gosselin is the author of GoodFellows, the story of Detroit's surprisingly successful St. Ambrose football teams of the '50s and '60s.
Spinning records to see which Super Bowl contenders sound good
[SIZE=-1]02:35 PM CST on Tuesday, November 24, 2009
[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][/SIZE]
Column by RICK GOSSELIN / The Dallas Morning News | rgosselin@dallasnews.com
<!--Start_Local_Custom_Inc-->
Rick Gosselin Archive | Blog | Bio | E-mail
<!--End_Local_Custom_Inc-->
If you play to win championships in the NFL, the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins can stop playing now.
Both are 3-7, and no team that has ever opened a season 3-7 has won a Super Bowl.
If you play to win championships, the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers also can stop playing now. Both are 4-6, and no team that has opened a season 4-6 has gone on to win a Super Bowl.
The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have opened the season 5-5. If you play to win championships … the Ravens and Dolphins are welcome to continue playing. Of the 43 Super Bowl champions, there is one that opened a season 5-5 and went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
That was the 2001 New England Patriots, who lost three of their first four games that season plus their starting quarterback. It took eight starts for Tom Brady to get settled in as Drew Bledsoe’s replacement, which landed the Patriots at 5-5. Then New England closed the season with nine consecutive victories, capped by a stunning 20-17 upset of the St. Louis Rams in the Super Bowl.
I annually study an NFL season at the 10-game mark. That usually takes us to the Thanksgiving holiday and gives me a fairly accurate pulse of the league. The contenders have emerged from the pretenders by this point. There are 18 teams at 5-5 or better this season. Stamp them as the contenders.
As a word of caution to the 10-0 Colts and Saints, only 14 times in the last 30 years has the team with the best record at the 10-game mark won the Super Bowl. The 2008 Titans, 2007 Patriots and 2005 Colts are the last three 10-0 teams before this season, and all failed to win the championship.
Here’s how the contenders stack up:
10-0 candidates: Indianapolis, New Orleans
Last 10-0 champion: 2006 Colts
Analysis: Those Titans, Patriots and Colts are not alone. There have been eight other teams that opened a season 10-0 in the Super Bowl era and only five won the Lombardi Trophy: the 1998 Broncos, 1991 Redskins, 1990 Giants, 1985 Bears and 1972 Dolphins. In addition to the Titans, Patriots and Colts, others who failed after 10-0 starts were the 1990 49ers, 1984 Dolphins, 1975 Vikings and the 1969 Rams.
9-1 candidate: Minnesota
Last 9-1 champion: 1997 Broncos
Analysis: Eight teams won Super Bowls after 9-1 starts, but only one has in the last 19 years. That was John Elway's Broncos, who started 9-1 but wound up qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card with a 12-4 record.
8-2 candidates: None
Last 8-2 champion: 2003 Patriots
Analysis: This is where you want to be situated in pursuit of a Super Bowl. More teams (12) have won the Lombardi Trophy with 8-2 starts than any other 10-game record. The 2003 Patriots, 2002 Bucs and 1999 Rams did it in the last 10 years. The 1995 and 1992 Cowboys also used 8-2 starts as springboards for Super Bowls. Incredibly, there isn’t a single team at 8-2 this season.
7-3 candidates: Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, San Diego
Last 7-3 champion: 2008 Steelers
Analysis: The last two Super Bowl champions and three of the last four all sat under the radar with 7-3 records at this point. Nine teams overall surged from 7-3 starts to win Super Bowls, including the 1993 Cowboys.
6-4 candidates: Denver, Green Bay, Jacksonville, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
Last 6-4 champion: 2000 Ravens
Analysis: Those Ravens won their final 11 games playing suffocating defense in claiming their lone Super Bowl. Baltimore set a record for the fewest points allowed in a 16-game season (165), then gave up only one offensive touchdown in four playoff games. The 1988 49ers also won the Super Bowl after a 6-4 start. But that San Francisco team had Joe Montana.
5-5 candidates: Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Miami
Last 5-5 champion: 2001 Patriots
Analysis: Tom Brady blossomed into a franchise quarterback in 2001, bailing out the Patriots. Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston and Miami all have young quarterbacks capable of blossoming in Matt Ryan (Falcons), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Matt Schaub (Texans) and Chad Henne (Dolphins).
If the Super Bowl was played tomorrow
Who can argue with the Colts and Saints? Every week there are upsets. You see the Bengals and Eagles losing to the Raiders, the Steelers losing to the Chiefs, the Packers losing to the Bucs and the Cardinals losing to the 49ers. Parity is rampant in the NFL everywhere except Indianapolis and New Orleans. You can appreciate the machine-like efficiency of the Colts and Saints in marching through their schedules with perfection.
Looking back at my weekend in Baltimore
Baltimore did it right, building its baseball and football stadiums adjacent to each other on the outskirts of downtown, walking distance to the Inner Harbor. Mass transit also delivers fans to each stadium. There are eight such stadium complexes involving the NFL, where the baseball and football facilities sit across parking lots from each other. Cincinnati, Detroit and Pittsburgh have their two stadiums right downtown, Baltimore and Seattle are on the edge of downtown and Philadelphia a little farther out, just few train stops away. Both the Cowboys/Rangers and Chiefs/Royals have their complexes in outlying areas.
Looking ahead at my weekend in Minneapolis
How does the Los Angeles Vikings sound?
Talks between the Vikings and city’s sports commission took a turn for the absolute worst last week when the NFL team vowed not to sign an extension to continue playing in the Metrodome. The sports authority then threatened to charge the Vikings $4 million annual rent if the team did not sign the extension.
The Vikings have been playing in the Metrodome since 1982, making it the 11th oldest stadium in the 32-team league. It slides to ninth in 2010 when both the Giants and Jets move into their new home.
The Metrodome is one of only two stadiums in the league that does not have club seats. With a capacity of only 64,000, it’s the 27th smallest stadium in the NFL. That combination makes it difficult financially for the Vikings to compete, even though the team has been playing rent free in the Metrodome since 2002. Their lease expires in 2011.
The baseball Twins and University of Minnesota Golden Gophers have new stadiums, and the Vikings claim it’s their turn. That’s also what Art Modell claimed in the 1990s after the baseball Indians were given a new home. The city of Cleveland didn’t listen, so Modell moved the Browns to Baltimore where that city would build him a new stadium.
Los Angeles has been without the NFL since the Raiders and Rams left after the 1994 season. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill in October that finally paved the way for the construction of a new stadium in Los Angeles. Could it be the next home of the Vikings?
Rick Gosselin shares his NFL analysis Wednesdays through Fridays on the NFL blog.
Rick Gosselin is the author of GoodFellows, the story of Detroit's surprisingly successful St. Ambrose football teams of the '50s and '60s.
