a bit early with this i know, but with it being the holidays i hope i can be forgiven.
Boise -14 and O70.
I do have a very strong opinion on my Sooners this weekend, but i'm not sure i'm being objective enough to make it a play for the offshore forum.
So why Boise? I've been beating the dog nuggets out of this team every chance i get this year. they haven't played much of a schedule and they have struggled to blow out the teams that they're expected to blow out. On the other hand, you have a Nevada team that has won 8 straight and is on quite a roll.
This is a game I expect Boise to pull out all the stops on the national stage. I mean, let's do a quick comparison of these teams against what one might consider "strong competition": Nevada loses on the road at Notre Dame 35-0. They lose on the road to CSU 35-20 (and the game wasn't that close). They lose at home to Mizzou 31-21. Yes, those were the first 3 games of the season, but Nevada has played just 1 game against a team with a winning record since then -- Fresno. Now, I see two teams in fairly different roles throughout the season: Nevada rolling up the scores against weak competition and suddenly everyone talks about how good they are, and then you have Boise, the dominating team in the WAC that gets everyone's best shot, and also Boise seems to have taken a "fuck the BCS" attitude by sitting on the football late in games where they have a chance to run the score up.
Now, let's look at how well Nevada has performed recently on the road before 2009 against what could be considered major opponents. Last year, they lose at Mizzou 69-17. In 2007 they lose at Nebraska 52-10 and lose to Northwestern (not a powerhouse for sure, but we will include them since they come from the BCS) 36-31. Now, this same season they did take Boise into 4 OT before losing 69-67. In fact, when was the last time Nevada went on the road and beat anybody of substance, or stayed close for that matter.
Now they get to go play on the blue turf against a Boise team that has been there, done that. One thing Boise doesn't do is miss out on an opportunity to show off what it's got on national TV against a respected opponent. When was the last time Nevada played a quality defense? Don't tell me it was when they got shut out against Notre Dame, or when they lost at home to Mizzou. They have certainly been head and shoulders over their WAC competiton and have not squandered an opportunity to blow some folks out.
This line also opened up exactly where I expected it to, which gives me added confidence that Boise is the right side, although I admit the total of 70 is about 10 points higher than I expected.
Folks, in all honesty I have a history of being dead wrong when it comes to playing WAC games. Personally, I have gotten to where I don't mess with them at all. Just so you know.
That being said, lay the 14. Boise comes out firing and overwhelmes a Nevada team that has made its way up the ladder by running up the score on weak competiton and has not beaten a worthwhile opponent in years. This is a spot Boise has grown accustomed to and I think we'll see their best effort and a team that will get away from its mojo of not running up the score.
Boise wins 62-24 in a game that is never close -- I see it going from 14-0 to 28-3 to 35-10 to.....well, to 62-24.
good luck to everyone this weekend, happy holidays, and God bless
Boise -14 and O70.
I do have a very strong opinion on my Sooners this weekend, but i'm not sure i'm being objective enough to make it a play for the offshore forum.
So why Boise? I've been beating the dog nuggets out of this team every chance i get this year. they haven't played much of a schedule and they have struggled to blow out the teams that they're expected to blow out. On the other hand, you have a Nevada team that has won 8 straight and is on quite a roll.
This is a game I expect Boise to pull out all the stops on the national stage. I mean, let's do a quick comparison of these teams against what one might consider "strong competition": Nevada loses on the road at Notre Dame 35-0. They lose on the road to CSU 35-20 (and the game wasn't that close). They lose at home to Mizzou 31-21. Yes, those were the first 3 games of the season, but Nevada has played just 1 game against a team with a winning record since then -- Fresno. Now, I see two teams in fairly different roles throughout the season: Nevada rolling up the scores against weak competition and suddenly everyone talks about how good they are, and then you have Boise, the dominating team in the WAC that gets everyone's best shot, and also Boise seems to have taken a "fuck the BCS" attitude by sitting on the football late in games where they have a chance to run the score up.
Now, let's look at how well Nevada has performed recently on the road before 2009 against what could be considered major opponents. Last year, they lose at Mizzou 69-17. In 2007 they lose at Nebraska 52-10 and lose to Northwestern (not a powerhouse for sure, but we will include them since they come from the BCS) 36-31. Now, this same season they did take Boise into 4 OT before losing 69-67. In fact, when was the last time Nevada went on the road and beat anybody of substance, or stayed close for that matter.
Now they get to go play on the blue turf against a Boise team that has been there, done that. One thing Boise doesn't do is miss out on an opportunity to show off what it's got on national TV against a respected opponent. When was the last time Nevada played a quality defense? Don't tell me it was when they got shut out against Notre Dame, or when they lost at home to Mizzou. They have certainly been head and shoulders over their WAC competiton and have not squandered an opportunity to blow some folks out.
This line also opened up exactly where I expected it to, which gives me added confidence that Boise is the right side, although I admit the total of 70 is about 10 points higher than I expected.
Folks, in all honesty I have a history of being dead wrong when it comes to playing WAC games. Personally, I have gotten to where I don't mess with them at all. Just so you know.
That being said, lay the 14. Boise comes out firing and overwhelmes a Nevada team that has made its way up the ladder by running up the score on weak competiton and has not beaten a worthwhile opponent in years. This is a spot Boise has grown accustomed to and I think we'll see their best effort and a team that will get away from its mojo of not running up the score.
Boise wins 62-24 in a game that is never close -- I see it going from 14-0 to 28-3 to 35-10 to.....well, to 62-24.
good luck to everyone this weekend, happy holidays, and God bless
