top 10

ah, gambling is such a dadgum process of trial and error that it hurts sometimes. i'm taking a week off to work on what i'm doing. think i'm gonna get back to good old fashioned handicapping. part of this process is creating a checklist of 10 things that i'm going to look at when i sit down to look at a game. feel free to fire away with your insults...... the following list is in no certain order, just happens to be the order in which i wrote them down

1) previous meeting. Seems i have had much more success in the NBA in past seasons using this approach. Also comes in handy in other sports as well, although you're limited in football due to the low number of games. Basically, take a look on ESPN and read the recap of the last game these two teams played against each other. How much has changed to warrant the current price?

2) public betting. Some people scoff, but when the public is betting at a high percentage on a certain side or total and you find yourself on the same side, watch out. One could make a fair amount of money simply by fading the water cooler talk.

3) Motivation. Is there an overwhelming reason why one team should be trying harder to beat the other team? If so, does that team have the ability to actually do something about it?

4) Injuries. An overrated aspect in my opinion, but definitely something to track. It's why I don't like betting early. A lot of respectable cappers bet early lines to gain an advantage, but the few times I've tried this it always backfires. I assume the injury factor is already built into the line by the time I bet.

5) Last 10 games (excluding football) Has the team been playing well or been getting its ass kicked? If I feel a strong play coming on, I certainly want to take a look at the recaps and box scores of both teams' recent games.

6) Look ahead and let down spots Another angle that I feel is a bit overrated in handicapping. This is where I like to look at the coaches and see how they have performed in these spots throughout their careers. The longer they've coached the better, as I have more information to go off of.

7) Home and away stats A basic element I think, but something that should be looked into. Box scores and game recaps don't lie. Depending on the sport, this is a quick and painless process, or it can take a few minutes.



So I've got 7. Looking for 10. what am i missing here? I am planning to use my findings to help fund a vacation to northwest arkansas next month.....

8. qb/point guard play
9. coach

refs'

and common oponents(and i know i butchered that word)

Not sure I put much weight in the common opponent factor.

The ref angle I have tried to look at earlier this year in CFB, but getting the information of who was officiating and finding the games they had previously officiated was quite a daunting task. I will add this to my list though and see if I can't find something tomorrow. Definitely worth looking at if you have refs who call tight games or not. I mean, can anyone tell me who's going to be officiating the Monday Night game and which games they have worked so far this year? That would be great info.

As far as individual matchups for each game, I'm not God. I will someday pass from this world and I don't think there's enough time in the day to do this for each game. Although after I've pinpointed a game or two, this could certainly be useful in the overall strength of the play.

I sort of like common opponent. You just have to be careful with it. Just how common was the team what did they look like for each game and what did the clubs playing them look like as far as how they were playing and injurys etc. It's a bit tricky, but it can be useful.

Good list so far though. Definitely agree on 6. Way over rated. Especially in football.

Almost everything I know about capping I stole from others off this forum , but yea you can spend ages looking at stats and stuff, it just never ends.

Anyways here is something I do and it helps me but make of it what you will(I do not claim to be a mastercapper)

I go thru the stats(excel spreadsheet is nice to highlight huge differences) and angles like a normal capping session and I find a game I may like, I then like to watch film on youtube of both teams to get a better feel for them. You can even find film of when a team plays a program with the same system to see how they handle it(ex. pistol o, options, ect..)

And I am pretty big on QB play, its just so hard to win and so easy to lose with a junk QB. Just my thoughts as I am sipping coffee this morning

Nice thread btw SD, I hope some others pop in with ideas aswell. Threads like this have really helped my hadicapping game over the last 2 years