hedging straight bets at the half

OnWisconsin · Dec 10, 2009

is this a good strategy if you get a game that lands roughly halfway where you bet it and the 2nd half price guarantees a push?

for instance, i had under 34 on the pitt game tonight and it was at 16 at the half -- the 2nd half line opened at 17 and i hit the over. the juice on my original bet was -105 and on the hedge it was -110. i think this is the 3rd time i've tried this, and 2 out of 3 times i have saved myself an outright loss.

is this a profitable long term strategy?

Doug · Dec 11, 2009

NO

3 examples is nothing.

Too much vig.

OK, if you see something that makes you want to get off of your original bet, but not OK to do routinely, IMO.

OnWisconsin · Dec 11, 2009

so let it ride. way i was thinking, is it's not often when i have a bet that's pretty much halfway one way or the other at the half, and if in those games i will lose 50% of the time, then i would be cutting that 50% of losses in half by hedging when i'm guaranteed at worst a push, although now that i think about it i guess i'd be cutting my wins in half as well, so like you said, it gets back to vig.....

goddammit~~:<< wah peesh, wah peesh (sound effects)

Doug · Dec 11, 2009

If you are going to do this, you need a hell of a lot more of a middle than that, but you'd still be throwing away too many winners.

at a minimum you need Matchbook no-vig lines.

Akillies · Dec 11, 2009

only if the 2nd half bet is +ev

jwunderdog · Dec 11, 2009

Akillies said:
only if the 2nd half bet is +ev

What he said. Treat each bet as an independent event. The only time you should consider the first bet when making the second bet is if the two are corrolated and it would put to large of % of your bankroll at risk.

Fishhead · Dec 11, 2009

Doug said:
If you are going to do this, you need a hell of a lot more of a middle than that, but you'd still be throwing away too many winners.

at a minimum you need Matchbook no-vig lines.

Doug continues to provide solid information to the RX masses.

Love this kid.

TomGshotput · Dec 11, 2009

Why even make the original bet if you are just going to give it back for nothing?

Doug · Dec 11, 2009

TomGshotput said:
Why even make the original bet if you are just going to give it back for nothing?

Yes, He might as well just bet first half, instead of getting off of fairly neutral bets at the half, and paying vig for doing it.

Doug · Dec 11, 2009

Fishhead said:
Doug continues to provide solid information to the RX masses.

Love this kid.

FH: I don't like being called kid....unless you're old enough to be my father.

I think you are only about 2 years older than me, so you don't qualify.

I'm 46, BTW.

hno:

Don't call me kid unless you're over 60, then OK !

OnWisconsin · Dec 11, 2009

Doug said:
Yes, He might as well just bet first half, instead of getting off of fairly neutral bets at the half, and paying vig for doing it.

nah, i don't think betting first halves is what i was getting at. i have seen the error in my thinking though, i was wondering if hedging neutral bets at the half -- if you were guaranteed not to lose both bets -- could help the bottom line over time, but you were right about the juice monster.

i guess i would compare this to buying points on a regular basis(buying points is something i never do).

Doug · Dec 11, 2009

One should avoid buying points, in general.
Selling points is often superior.

Forget most point buys.

Very few are worth it....

maybe +2.5 instead of +2 in NBA, or -1.5 instead of 2

arguably off of a 7 in NFL, maybe off of a 37 total

little else is worth consideration, unless you can shop off of key numbers, preferabably at reduced vig

Most punters would do better , by never buying points

Just forget that option exists, unless you are confident the buy is +EV.

I rarely buy, very rarely, I bet mostly at MB, via offers I make.

Doug · Dec 11, 2009

Furthurmore: (sp)

One should only play at reduced/ no vig shops like....

Matchbook
5Dimes
Betphoenix

unless locking in an early line....

then use...

Greek
Bookmaker
Pinny ( if you can)

billpapa · Dec 12, 2009

Doug said:
FH: I don't like being called kid....unless you're old enough to be my father.

I think you are only about 2 years older than me, so you don't qualify.

I'm 46, BTW. hno:

Don't call me kid unless you're over 60, then OK !

Don't let things bother you, kid.

Doug · Dec 12, 2009

billpapa said:
Don't let things bother you, kid.

You qualify to call me kid, Bill ! :103631605

stale · Dec 12, 2009

how about this, I had gt/wash today under 144. At the half it was 30/29. I then took over 74 for the second half, so I had a 11 pt middle, (59+74=133), both came in. So should I have just stayed with the game under?

Obvoiusly it won, but just as a standard practice, would this be advised?

Doug · Dec 12, 2009

stale said:
how about this, I had gt/wash today under 144. At the half it was 30/29. I then took over 74 for the second half, so I had a 11 pt middle, (59+74=133), both came in. So should I have just stayed with the game under?

Obvoiusly it won, but just as a standard practice, would this be advised?

Nope, IMO!

You have a sample size of one game.

The vig will get you in the end, if you do this regularly !

The H2 line needs to be +EV, it likely was not

You're paying vig, but you won ( this time).

Do that 1,000 times, and you'd be better off just keeping the original wager.

Vig is your enemy

Bad play, IMO, but it won !

Kill the vig, no -110 shops, get -105, or better yet Matchbook

Bad bet that won, IMO !

TomGshotput · Dec 12, 2009

stale said:
Obvoiusly it won, but just as a standard practice, would this be advised?

The only correct play is to look at each bet independently

You spent the time handicapping the game and then watched the first half. Use that to your advantage and bet at halftime if it is a line worth betting. Buy back if it is a good play, double if that is a good play, or lay off if that is the right decision. But don't give away the juice just becuase you are risk-averse

Doug · Dec 12, 2009

TomGshotput said:
The only correct play is to look at each bet independently

You spent the time handicapping the game and then watched the first half. Use that to your advantage and bet at halftime if it is a line worth betting. Buy back if it is a good play, double if that is a good play, or lay off if that is the right decision. But don't give away the juice just becuase you are risk-averse

I agree !

stale · Dec 12, 2009

thanks guys, it was more of an action play, so I will tone it down.

hedging straight bets at the half

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