For all you Parlay bettors.... <hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I posted this in the hockey forum, but figured i'd post here too..
may get a few more responses... i'm referring btw, to +1.5 pucklines when i say 'ATS'...
Calling all parlayers..
tell me, when you guys put together a parlay, is it just on a whim, or do you consider the math as well??
I ask because i think it is possible to beat the books with some careful parlaying,
but you have to take some probability into consideration..
How many of you consider the individual game prices and break-even points needed,
and the subsequent break-even of the parlay itself, into consideration?
I'm working with a sample of a little over 200 games and ATS stats, and i have come up with
a bit of a 'system' if you want to call it that, that parlays some high % ATS plays (+1.5), at certain prices..
What i'm finding by running some numbers is that i'm getting a 5-6% (in some cases, about 8%) edge
in my expected win % compared to the break-even % set by the payout..
Here's an example..
Suppose i have criteria that yields a sampling of games whose dogs are hitting at a 76.5% clip...
ATS (+1.5) prices i'm working with are no steeper than -280, and usually around -255...
Let's assume, that irrespective of price, the plays have an equal chance of winning, since they fall within the criteria i've set out...
Let's take -250 and -265 as an example..
Parlaying these two games gives us a payout of 92.83 on 100 risked, which equates to a line of -107.7 or -108..
The Breakeven point for a -108 wager is 51.9%
But since i'm working with 2 plays with a theoretical 76.5% winning percentage,
my expected win % is going to be 58.52%, giving me an edge of about 6.6%
What i'm considering is an edge of at least 5% to be considered a 'play'.
Never more than 2 selections per parlay, with +1.5 prices no worse than -280
So for some of you more seasoned parlay players...
Is this something you consider when constructing your parlays,
or do you guys mostly just sick em together and hope for the best?
I'm curious to know whether or not guys have had success by being disciplined with careful game selection and pricing???
may get a few more responses... i'm referring btw, to +1.5 pucklines when i say 'ATS'...
Calling all parlayers..
tell me, when you guys put together a parlay, is it just on a whim, or do you consider the math as well??
I ask because i think it is possible to beat the books with some careful parlaying,
but you have to take some probability into consideration..
How many of you consider the individual game prices and break-even points needed,
and the subsequent break-even of the parlay itself, into consideration?
I'm working with a sample of a little over 200 games and ATS stats, and i have come up with
a bit of a 'system' if you want to call it that, that parlays some high % ATS plays (+1.5), at certain prices..
What i'm finding by running some numbers is that i'm getting a 5-6% (in some cases, about 8%) edge
in my expected win % compared to the break-even % set by the payout..
Here's an example..
Suppose i have criteria that yields a sampling of games whose dogs are hitting at a 76.5% clip...
ATS (+1.5) prices i'm working with are no steeper than -280, and usually around -255...
Let's assume, that irrespective of price, the plays have an equal chance of winning, since they fall within the criteria i've set out...
Let's take -250 and -265 as an example..
Parlaying these two games gives us a payout of 92.83 on 100 risked, which equates to a line of -107.7 or -108..
The Breakeven point for a -108 wager is 51.9%
But since i'm working with 2 plays with a theoretical 76.5% winning percentage,
my expected win % is going to be 58.52%, giving me an edge of about 6.6%
What i'm considering is an edge of at least 5% to be considered a 'play'.
Never more than 2 selections per parlay, with +1.5 prices no worse than -280
So for some of you more seasoned parlay players...
Is this something you consider when constructing your parlays,
or do you guys mostly just sick em together and hope for the best?
I'm curious to know whether or not guys have had success by being disciplined with careful game selection and pricing???
