does anybody pay attention to this

OnWisconsin

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• #1

was looking at money lines for tonight's NBA games.....i play the spread 99% of the time and rarely pay attention to the ML, but found this interesting:

Utah (13 1/2) is -2000

denver (-10 1/2) is -600

dallas (-9) -470

only a 3 point difference on the spread, but more than a 3 to 1 difference on the ML, or a 4 1/2 point difference but a little more than a 4 to 1 difference on the ML....

any way, don't really know what i'm asking, just seems like with the spreads not being too far apart, seeing the difference in the MLs left me wondering if someone might find meaning in this

 

TheSaint

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• #2

i know what you mean man, i had the same question..

 

mplastered

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• #3

Dawg, would you say you are addicted to this here forum?

 

OnWisconsin

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NO and minnesota are in a similar spot as they're playing on the road against a team they beat SU last time out.....yet one is +360 and the other is +1100....

i guess an easy answer is that NO has a much better chance of winning SU, but the discrepency surprises me....not sure if this is a normal thing as i usually don't even bother to check out the ML....

 

OnWisconsin

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• #5

mplastered said:

Dawg, would you say you are addicted to this here forum?

Click to expand...

no, but i would say i don't have much of a life.....:toast:

it could always be worse -- god forbid i get myself banned for one of my late night odes

 

mplastered

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soonerdawg said:

no, but i would say i don't have much of a life.....:toast:

it could always be worse -- god forbid i get myself banned for one of my late night odes

Click to expand...

I'd say with that quick response, you are addicted. Welcome to the club.:toast:

 

OnWisconsin

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• #7

yes sir

bet id#: ********

wager: (ML) Minnesota +1100 (NBA)

Wager amount: $500

Wager result: win

congratulatins, $5,500 has been added to your account. Your account is now closed because you are too sharp for us

 

Scoops

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• #8

Did you really win that SD?

 

OnWisconsin

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• #9

Scoops said:

Did you really win that SD?

Click to expand...

fuck no.....i posted utah as a 3* play in the nba forum......just trying to be Mr. Funny Man again

although if you notice, all 3 of those DAWGS covered tonight.....i put this in my little notebook for future reference

 

Scoops

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oh,ok I just woke up and read it,didnt bother to check if it was even true or not but wanted to congratulate you on the win Mr.Sharpie

 

OnWisconsin

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night shifter, eh?

 

Scoops

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• #12

varies

 

Murphy8276

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• #13

this happens in every sport all the time.. nba has craziest variance... but it isnt uncommon for a 7-7 nfl team to be -10.5 on spread and -450 on ml vs det lions/kans city/clev.. etc.. where as a undefeated or 1 or 2 loss team would be -700 or higher(ive seen before) vs that same 2 or 3 win squad because its less likely a team with barely a win can beat a unbeaten/good squad..

also homefield win/loss record might be other reasons why.. for instance utah having a much better record then minnys 2 wins all season might have something to do with it, not to mention utah is pretty stellar at home....also one of minnyys 2 total wins on season came against utah in minnisota and im sure utah was supposed to put the smash on in this game.. i guess statistics would say that since utah was already scarred from this terrible team its less likely to happen again.. atleast so soon??... that im unsure of.. but public perception plays into the line heavily in that aspect .. im sure of it.

im sure all this comes into play...

meanwhile tonight thegreek and other books who offer these outrageous mls cashed in big tonight as lots of dumbasses tossed it in with parlays/teases.. etc and utah shit the bed.


-murph

 

OnWisconsin

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• #14

cool, thanks for your input.....i've noticed varience before, but usually in a glancing sort of way....i got burned off playing MLs a long time ago, playing small DAWGS SU and winding up wishing i had taken the points.....

for some reason the discrepancy stuck out to me tonight after i had capped the games....and i predicted a 25 point utah win.....

the denver and dallas games could have gone either way as far as the spread was concerned

 

Murphy8276

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ur welcome for the insight bud.. :toast: .. trust me..I only learnt this because we all done some dumb stuff in our life and i have no shame in admitting that i bet 25 large one time to get a FREE 1K... on a ml.. in the nba of course. hno:

of course my team lost by 20 pts and i wasnt in the game from basket 1 on....
^<<^

oh well we all learn , luckily i learned and never did anything that dumb again all my betting years.


and yes i puked for atleast a week after this happeneduke1:

to make matters worse i was 18 yrs old at the time and never got my account anywhere near that level since.. lol of course typical opening lucky run and stupid crash and burn.

-murph

 

OnWisconsin

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• #16

nah, i didn't do no dumb stuff here.....i have a policy to lay no more than -115 and i try to avoid that as best i can....for some reason these MLs stuck out to me tonight.....

kind of like: right, right, right, right......WHAT THE FUCK!!!!!!!

 

IrishTim

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• #17

soonerdawg said:

was looking at money lines for tonight's NBA games.....i play the spread 99% of the time and rarely pay attention to the ML, but found this interesting:

Utah (13 1/2) is -2000

denver (-10 1/2) is -600

dallas (-9) -470

only a 3 point difference on the spread, but more than a 3 to 1 difference on the ML, or a 4 1/2 point difference but a little more than a 4 to 1 difference on the ML....

any way, don't really know what i'm asking, just seems like with the spreads not being too far apart, seeing the difference in the MLs left me wondering if someone might find meaning in this

Click to expand...

To answer your question, yes I pay attention to this. Assuming one is playing at a full juice book where Dallas is -9 (-110), the fair moneyline would be approximately -656 for the favorite and +456 for the dog. So clearly, at least in my opinion, there was value on the Dallas ML (which I bet at -450).

It may not seem like there is a big difference between -9 and -13.5, but there certainly is. Consider NBA games land on the "9" 4.75%, the "10" 4.16%, the "11" 3.87%, the "12" 3.51%, and the "13" 3.85%.

Work on the numbers and see what you think.