http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/story/1380824.html
Posted on Mon, Dec. 14, 2009
Breaking down the Miami Dolphins' playoff scenarios
BY JEFF DARLINGTON
jdarlington@MiamiHerald.com
JOE RIMKUS JR. / STAFF PHOTO
Miami Dolphins fans put up their dukes during the first quarter of a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009 at Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville.
Overall breakdown based on Dolphins winning final three games (New calculations would be required if the Dolphins lose any of their final three games):
If the Patriots lose once, the Dolphins will win the AFC East and will not need a Wild Card berth. If the Patriots win out, and the Ravens lose once, the Dolphins will earn a Wild Card berth. If the Patriots and the Ravens both win out, the Dolphins could still advance. It would require the Broncos to lose to the Raiders or the Chiefs. In that case, the Dolphins would still advance based on a better conference record than Denver. However, if the Broncos lose only to the Eagles, and the Ravens win out, the final Wild Card spot would be decided based on the better strength of victory between Denver and Miami. We currently don't have enough data at this point in the season to calculate that scenario. So to be guaranteed a playoff spot, the Dolphins currently need one of the following: (a) the Patriots to lose, (b) the Ravens to lose, (c) the Broncos to lose to the Raiders or the Chiefs.
Explanation of each possible scenario based on Dolphins winning final three games:
In the case of a two-way tie with the Patriots, the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Patriots to lose one of their final three games. Because Miami and New England would have the same division record and the same record against common opponents, the tiebreaker would come down to conference records. Since their final three opponents are all in the AFC, a loss by the Patriots would sink them to 7-5, while the Dolphins' conference record would be 8-4. Therefore, Miami would win the AFC East in the case of tie. If the Patriots win their final three games, the Dolphins would only advance through the Wild Card.
In the case of a three-way tie with the Patriots and the Jets the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Jets to win out and the Patriots to lose once. In such a case, the Dolphins' sweep of the Jets would eliminate them, causing the scenario to revert to the above-stated situation. Thus, Miami would win the division.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Jaguars, the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Jaguars to win the rest of their games. The first stage of a tiebreaker in this situation would be head-to-head matchups. Since it is applicable, the Dolphins would take the Wild Card based on Sunday's win.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Ravens, the Dolphins do not advance.
This scenario would require the Ravens to win the rest of their games. Since the Dolphins and the Ravens do not play each other, this would require multiple stages to the tiebreaker. Both teams would also have a conference record of 8-4, meaning common opponents would dictate this scenario. The Ravens would be 3-2 against common opponents, while the Dolphins would be 2-3. Therefore, the Dolphins would not win the Wild Card in this scenario.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Jets for the Wild Card, the Dolphins advance.
The Dolphins swept the Jets with two wins this season, so they would advance ahead of the Jets if the Patriots won the rest of their games and the Ravens lose once.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Broncos, the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Broncos to lose one game. If that scenario occurs, and one of the losses by Denver came against the Raiders or the Chiefs, the Dolphins would have the better conference record. If Denver's only loss came against the Eagles, the conference records would be tied, which would make the tiebreaker come down to common games. In that case, the Dolphins and the Broncos would both be 2-4. So the tiebreaker would move onto strength of victory. The good news: While we don't have sufficient data to calculate strength of victory, if the Dolphins are in a two-way tie with the Broncos, and it is not the final stage of a three-way tie with the Ravens, it would mean the Ravens and the Jags would have both lost a game, which means the Dolphins and the Broncos would both advance for both Wild Card berths.
In the case of a three-way tie with the Ravens and the Broncos: Inconclusive.
This scenario would require the Broncos to lose once and the Ravens to win out. A head-to-head sweep is not applicable because the teams haven't all played each other. If one of the losses by Denver came against the Raiders or the Chiefs, the Dolphins and the Ravens would have the better conference record, causing the Broncos to be eliminated. In that situation, the Ravens would take the first Wild Card spot and the Dolphins would take the second one. If Denver's loss came against Philly, all three teams would have the same conference record, which would cause the tiebreaker to move on to records against common opponents. In that case, the Ravens would take the three-way tiebreaker with a 3-2 record against common opponents (the Broncos and the Dolphins would be tied at 2-3). To decide the final spot, it would go down to a two-way tiebreaker between the Broncos and the Dolphins. In such a case, this would come down to strength of victory between Denver and Miami. We do not yet have sufficient data to determine such a scenario. So if Denver's only loss comes to Philadelphia, and the Dolphins and the Ravens both win out, this will require further analysis.
In the case of a three-way tie with the Ravens and the Jaguars, the Dolphins advance.
Such a scenario would require the Ravens and the Jaguars to win their remaining games, which would mean a three-way tie isn't possible since the Jaguars would have defeated the Patriots - thus making the Dolphins the AFC East Champs. This scenario can not occur.
In the case of a three-way tie with any team and the Jets the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Jets to win all of their games, but it would immediately cause the Dolphins to bounce the Jets based on their sweep. Thus, it would then revert to a two-way tie with the other team and the Dolphins.
In a four-way tie with the Dolphins, Broncos, Jaguars and Ravens, the Dolphins advance. This scenario would not occur, since the Jaguars would need to win out, which means the Dolphins would have already won the AFC East because the Jags would have needed to beat the Patriots.
Posted on Mon, Dec. 14, 2009
Breaking down the Miami Dolphins' playoff scenarios
BY JEFF DARLINGTON
jdarlington@MiamiHerald.com
JOE RIMKUS JR. / STAFF PHOTO
Miami Dolphins fans put up their dukes during the first quarter of a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009 at Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville.
Overall breakdown based on Dolphins winning final three games (New calculations would be required if the Dolphins lose any of their final three games):
If the Patriots lose once, the Dolphins will win the AFC East and will not need a Wild Card berth. If the Patriots win out, and the Ravens lose once, the Dolphins will earn a Wild Card berth. If the Patriots and the Ravens both win out, the Dolphins could still advance. It would require the Broncos to lose to the Raiders or the Chiefs. In that case, the Dolphins would still advance based on a better conference record than Denver. However, if the Broncos lose only to the Eagles, and the Ravens win out, the final Wild Card spot would be decided based on the better strength of victory between Denver and Miami. We currently don't have enough data at this point in the season to calculate that scenario. So to be guaranteed a playoff spot, the Dolphins currently need one of the following: (a) the Patriots to lose, (b) the Ravens to lose, (c) the Broncos to lose to the Raiders or the Chiefs.
Explanation of each possible scenario based on Dolphins winning final three games:
In the case of a two-way tie with the Patriots, the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Patriots to lose one of their final three games. Because Miami and New England would have the same division record and the same record against common opponents, the tiebreaker would come down to conference records. Since their final three opponents are all in the AFC, a loss by the Patriots would sink them to 7-5, while the Dolphins' conference record would be 8-4. Therefore, Miami would win the AFC East in the case of tie. If the Patriots win their final three games, the Dolphins would only advance through the Wild Card.
In the case of a three-way tie with the Patriots and the Jets the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Jets to win out and the Patriots to lose once. In such a case, the Dolphins' sweep of the Jets would eliminate them, causing the scenario to revert to the above-stated situation. Thus, Miami would win the division.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Jaguars, the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Jaguars to win the rest of their games. The first stage of a tiebreaker in this situation would be head-to-head matchups. Since it is applicable, the Dolphins would take the Wild Card based on Sunday's win.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Ravens, the Dolphins do not advance.
This scenario would require the Ravens to win the rest of their games. Since the Dolphins and the Ravens do not play each other, this would require multiple stages to the tiebreaker. Both teams would also have a conference record of 8-4, meaning common opponents would dictate this scenario. The Ravens would be 3-2 against common opponents, while the Dolphins would be 2-3. Therefore, the Dolphins would not win the Wild Card in this scenario.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Jets for the Wild Card, the Dolphins advance.
The Dolphins swept the Jets with two wins this season, so they would advance ahead of the Jets if the Patriots won the rest of their games and the Ravens lose once.
In the case of a two-way tie with the Broncos, the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Broncos to lose one game. If that scenario occurs, and one of the losses by Denver came against the Raiders or the Chiefs, the Dolphins would have the better conference record. If Denver's only loss came against the Eagles, the conference records would be tied, which would make the tiebreaker come down to common games. In that case, the Dolphins and the Broncos would both be 2-4. So the tiebreaker would move onto strength of victory. The good news: While we don't have sufficient data to calculate strength of victory, if the Dolphins are in a two-way tie with the Broncos, and it is not the final stage of a three-way tie with the Ravens, it would mean the Ravens and the Jags would have both lost a game, which means the Dolphins and the Broncos would both advance for both Wild Card berths.
In the case of a three-way tie with the Ravens and the Broncos: Inconclusive.
This scenario would require the Broncos to lose once and the Ravens to win out. A head-to-head sweep is not applicable because the teams haven't all played each other. If one of the losses by Denver came against the Raiders or the Chiefs, the Dolphins and the Ravens would have the better conference record, causing the Broncos to be eliminated. In that situation, the Ravens would take the first Wild Card spot and the Dolphins would take the second one. If Denver's loss came against Philly, all three teams would have the same conference record, which would cause the tiebreaker to move on to records against common opponents. In that case, the Ravens would take the three-way tiebreaker with a 3-2 record against common opponents (the Broncos and the Dolphins would be tied at 2-3). To decide the final spot, it would go down to a two-way tiebreaker between the Broncos and the Dolphins. In such a case, this would come down to strength of victory between Denver and Miami. We do not yet have sufficient data to determine such a scenario. So if Denver's only loss comes to Philadelphia, and the Dolphins and the Ravens both win out, this will require further analysis.
In the case of a three-way tie with the Ravens and the Jaguars, the Dolphins advance.
Such a scenario would require the Ravens and the Jaguars to win their remaining games, which would mean a three-way tie isn't possible since the Jaguars would have defeated the Patriots - thus making the Dolphins the AFC East Champs. This scenario can not occur.
In the case of a three-way tie with any team and the Jets the Dolphins advance.
This scenario would require the Jets to win all of their games, but it would immediately cause the Dolphins to bounce the Jets based on their sweep. Thus, it would then revert to a two-way tie with the other team and the Dolphins.
In a four-way tie with the Dolphins, Broncos, Jaguars and Ravens, the Dolphins advance. This scenario would not occur, since the Jaguars would need to win out, which means the Dolphins would have already won the AFC East because the Jags would have needed to beat the Patriots.
