What is a "bad line"?

billpapa · Dec 21, 2009

Even though I am currently involved in a "bad line" case this is not a complaint about anybody calling a line I think is good, "bad". What I would like to do though is use the clout that Rx has to establish a universally accepted definition of a "bad line". I don't believe there is anything like such a definition presently and I would like something put in place so that when people like me who shop around see something off they have a guideline to use to decide whether to bet such a line or not bet it.
From my point of view a "bad line" is
a. having the wrong side favored, but not when the line is something like 1 or 1.5
b. having what may appear as numbers reversed for example having a 12 point dog shown as a 21 point dog.
c. having a line that is "significantly" different than what the majority of the books show.

I believe nobody would seriously argue a situation covered under a. or b. above. It is the c. case that lacks definition. I would suggest something like 3 points in football sides, 4 points in basketball sides, and 4 or 5 points in football and basketball totals. One may argue with the numbers I suggest but any reasonable numbers once established and publicized will minimize the "pissing contest" type of disagreements we frequently encounter and save both books and bettors a lot of grief. I would like to see somebody at the Rx take this and run with it. I believe it will be of great service to the betting community. I would nominate Will or SportSavant to do the honors.

Another benefiit of having such a definition would be that the book would not need to be particularly prompt in notifying a bettor of a "bad" line bet. A simple on line message would be sufficient.

Santo · Dec 21, 2009

Amongst other problems, all points are not created equal (or anywhere near it). 3 vs 4 and 26 vs 27 are very different, pk vs 4 is hugely different from 25.5 to 29.5 and so on..

billpapa · Dec 21, 2009

Santo said:
Amongst other problems, all points are not created equal (or anywhere near it). 3 vs 4 and 26 vs 27 are very different, pk vs 4 is hugely different from 25.5 to 29.5 and so on..

I agree with you. Still, having definite guidelines is a lot better than leaving the decision in every case to somebody who may have an interest in calling a line "bad".

$tinky · Dec 21, 2009

i had what i thought was gonna be a beef on a bad line, weekend before last when texas and nebraska played in big 12 champ game.

It was 2h and i was betting nebraska (one of the only winners i had that day i think) so i'm shopping around and i find like +12 even and its +12 everywhere or +12-120. So i bet it and think nothing of it.

Next day i get up log in and message pops up and says deleted tex 2h bc bad line.

I was pissed I was like this is horseshit 20 cents off or even 10 cents off. wtf?

so i called and found out that I'd actually bet Texas +12 (or so they said I did not have it printed)

they had it upside down, and i did not even notice i just had in my head i wanted +whatever.

oh well i guess some of these go ur way and some go against you.

you remember the ones that go against you much longer though.

NickelsAndDimes · Dec 21, 2009

Giants -3 was a "bad line" it looks like :lol:

Willie99 · Dec 21, 2009

when you're giving 8.5 and win by 8

Doug · Dec 21, 2009

This is tough to define...not all sports are equal.

I think somebody ( Ganchrow ?) tried this.

Take NFL, if you're getting +100, and Pinnacle is dealing -120, it's a bit suspect, but not bad, IMO.

Take NBA quarter totals ( much thinner market than NFL sides), you might find totals different by 1.5 points, not bad IMO.

Now take props or futures....could be different by a huge amount.

There will always a gray, subjective area, and disputes.

I don't think we can make a formula for bad lines, esp. in lesser bet stuff.

somebody has to be the judge.

D2bets · Dec 21, 2009

Trying to define a bad line calls to mind a Supreme Court justice's definition of pornography -- "I know it when I see it".

Doug · Dec 21, 2009

Scalpbable against Pinny in real time, makes it suspect, not bad.

big difference between a 2 cent scalp, and a 40 cent + scalp.

What if it's a RAS total, or an injury moving the line 3 points ?

What was the bet/line, Bill ?

billpapa · Dec 22, 2009

The bet is not important. My problem is that the way things are now the books are both judge and jury in addition to being the other side in any potential dispute. I would like to see, at least for the major betting sports, some definite guidelines. I realize that all points are not created equal but, still, some previously established criteria are better than none. Take basketball totals for example; do 2 points off the "prevailing line" constitute a bad line? How about five? What for numbers in between? Who is to say that when it came down to calling a line "bad" the book that has a stake at this won't lean to the side that serves it best? If a number that defined a "bad" line existed there could really be no argument, don't you think?
Say I am the linesmaker for book X. I decide to hang a line Y. I decide to hang it out early because I want the early business. It happens to be a bad number although I meant it when I hung it out there. I get pounded. My boss is going to be on my ass tomorrow morning. I can call my decision a "bad" line and cancel a bunch of bets. Is that right?

Doug · Dec 22, 2009

Bill, I think the actual bet is very relevant.

I'm looking at as if I were Justin, Wilheim, or somebody impartial.

BB totals, you don't say if pro or college.

I'll give you 2 points, 5 is tougher, but I lean to the player, if I'm the judge.

You bet under 148, line is like 143/144

Was it ever 148 ? If so, you're bet is good, book failed to move line...pay Bill, boot him as a steam chaser if you want, but pay him !

If the line never budged much from 143/144...it's kind of bad, possible/reasonable clerical error. A cancellation before tip-off is sort of OK, but Bill is taking a shot at my book....note that in his account, he looks like he might hunt for bad lines ?

That would be a decent cancel, a bit iffy, but you'd have known that bet was iffy, when you made it.

You can always phone an iffy bet in, to verify it. The total is 148, right ?

We need details to judge individual cases, I sound like the judge here, but I need the facts to rule if you're complaint has any merit.

It can't be standardized, best I can do is compare to Pinny, at the time of the wager.

just trying to give a fair opinion, and Bill Papa is a friend of mine, I'm trying to make him see how an unbiased panel might look at it.

First thing is ..."what was the bet" ?

Maniac · Dec 22, 2009

I am with Doug, there is a big difference between hanging a "bad line" and a "stale line" by a book being slow to react to a market move - though of course some books do indeed treat stale lines as bad lines (search "jenson button" on here for best example).

Knowingly betting what a bad line is always a tricky one as you leave yourself open for the book to potentially put you in a lose/push situation whereby if the bad line turns out to be a winner then they will void the bet a call bad line, if it turns out to be a loser then they may well decide to leave the bet and settle it as a loser.

Doug · Dec 22, 2009

Maniac said:
I am with Doug, there is a big difference between hanging a "bad line" and a "stale line" by a book being slow to react to a market move - though of course some books do indeed treat stale lines as bad lines (search "jenson button" on here for best example).

Knowingly betting what a bad line is always a tricky one as you leave yourself open for the book to potentially put you in a lose/push situation whereby if the bad line turns out to be a winner then they will void the bet a call bad line, if it turns out to be a loser then they may well decide to leave the bet and settle it as a loser.

Thanks, Maniac...The line matters in disputes.

billpapa · Dec 22, 2009

I am not talking about any specific bet. I am simply saying that the "bad" line determination as it is presently practiced can be improved upon. I believe that sportsbooks, by being able to decide individual cases as they see fit without a "rule book" , can easily fall into the trap of deciding what serves them best. It is only human to listen to the argument that is most favorable to you. I think we can, as a sports betting community, do better. I would like somebody to put together such a "rule book".

billpapa · Dec 22, 2009

Maniac said:
Knowingly betting what a bad line is always a tricky one as you leave yourself open for the book to potentially put you in a lose/push situation whereby if the bad line turns out to be a winner then they will void the bet a call bad line, if it turns out to be a loser then they may well decide to leave the bet and settle it as a loser.

What you are talking about in your statement (waiting until the bet is decided and then claiming a "bad" line) would be an outright dishonest act by the book. I am not talking about anything like that. I would not deal with a book that I suspected may act this way.
I gave as an example an entirely contrived hypothetical situation where a linesmaker may decide to salvage his bad handicapping by using a "bad" line argument. By no means I meant to accuse anyone of doing anything like that. I think though that such a scenario is very possible,

I would like to eliminate however even the impression that a book may be acting improperly. If we had a rule that said 2 points or 3 points or 10 points or whatever for this sport and/or bet was a bad line then I would know what to expect if I chose to bet into a line that was "bad". Maybe 2 points or 3 points or 10 points is not the way to go but there ought to be some way to clearly define a "bad" line. The way things are at present a book is able to choose how to treat each case as they see fit. Who is to say they don't choose what is best for them regardless of other considerations? What is there to stop them if they want to do so?

IrishTim · Dec 22, 2009

billpapa said:
Even though I am currently involved in a "bad line" case this is not a complaint about anybody calling a line I think is good, "bad". What I would like to do though is use the clout that Rx has to establish a universally accepted definition of a "bad line". I don't believe there is anything like such a definition presently and I would like something put in place so that when people like me who shop around see something off they have a guideline to use to decide whether to bet such a line or not bet it.
From my point of view a "bad line" is
a. having the wrong side favored, but not when the line is something like 1 or 1.5
b. having what may appear as numbers reversed for example having a 12 point dog shown as a 21 point dog.
c. having a line that is "significantly" different than what the majority of the books show.

I believe nobody would seriously argue a situation covered under a. or b. above. It is the c. case that lacks definition.

Most pros would say that if you could arb the position for 10% or more, then it's a bad line. It's important not to mistake this for failure to move a line (such as with that SBG/Formula 1 example) which is just poor bookmaking.

Doug · Dec 22, 2009

billpapa said:
What you are talking about in your statement (waiting until the bet is decided and then claiming a "bad" line) would be an outright dishonest act by the book. I am not talking about anything like that. I would not deal with a book that I suspected may act this way.
I gave as an example an entirely contrived hypothetical situation where a linesmaker may decide to salvage his bad handicapping by using a "bad" line argument. By no means I meant to accuse anyone of doing anything like that. I think though that such a scenario is very possible,

I would like to eliminate however even the impression that a book may be acting improperly. If we had a rule that said 2 points or 3 points or 10 points or whatever for this sport and/or bet was a bad line then I would know what to expect if I chose to bet into a line that was "bad". Maybe 2 points or 3 points or 10 points is not the way to go but there ought to be some way to clearly define a "bad" line. The way things are at present a book is able to choose how to treat each case as they see fit. Who is to say they don't choose what is best for them regardless of other considerations? What is there to stop them if they want to do so?

honor

What is a "bad line"?

Search

billpapa

New member

Santo

New member

billpapa

New member

$tinky

Member

NickelsAndDimes

New member

Willie99

Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory

Doug

Rx God

D2bets

New member

Doug

Rx God

billpapa

New member

Doug

Rx God

Maniac

New member

Doug

Rx God

billpapa

New member

billpapa

New member

IrishTim

New member

Doug

Rx God

Forum statistics

Share this page