Should You Hedge a Survivor Pool?

Defying · Dec 23, 2009

I am one of 5 left in a $1700 Survivor Pool. Cost was $25

I was the only one to decline the split of $340 bucks.

This week we all 5 have different teams. So I imagine a min. of one of us will lose.

I have the Bengals over KC. Which I don't love bc of the entire Chris Henry thing, but I saved Cin for this week. So I used them

The ML is +575.

Should I hedge the bet, and put $50 on KC to win. And then hope CIN wins and knocks out AT LEAST one of the other 4. to increase my winnings, but if I lose, I still get close to $300.

My concern is what if somone changes there mind to split pot. I guess I could hedge again, but not likely to get that high of ML number..

Love to hear your opinions...

JakeT. · Dec 23, 2009

What teams are the other guys stuck with at this point? I'd consider that into the equation before making an assessment.

ATP · Dec 23, 2009

prob depends how much you would need that money, dont see KC beating anyone playoff caliber right now with their defense

FairWarning · Dec 23, 2009

Jake T. said:
What teams are the other guys stuck with at this point? I'd consider that into the equation before making an assessment.

This is key.

TomGshotput · Dec 23, 2009

Is the amount life changing? Or at least bankroll changing?

If not, you're giving away a little bit of the edge you spend 15 weeks building

If KC wins, you're take home is only $262.50. If not, you there would be the chance to end up with a $75 loss depending on week 17. . .

billpapa · Dec 24, 2009

Hedging is almost always wrong. This is one of the very rare cases where it may be right. If the amount you stand to win is disproportionately larger than your typical bet then do hedge.