Why wouldn't it just be an 11 team moneyline parlay? Or am I too tired that I'm missing something obvious? Predicting future matchups shouldn't be that tough since you just have to assume all favorites win (anyone picking upsets is just giving up juice). A rough estimate using first round odds and it is pretty clear sending money to a Nigirian Prince promising millions would be a better bet than taking this at 10-to-one
Not saying its a good bet... But these people are not us.... They are your average guy, that talks alot of shit about football. Every week, they all take NO, NE, INDY ect...
I want to get good enough odds to wanting the people to play, but at the same time, I was wondering what was the chancing of them hitting this.
Is +2000 more realistic?
I want to get good enough odds to wanting the people to play, but at the same time, I was wondering what was the chancing of them hitting this.
Is +2000 more realistic?
Odds of hitting an 11teamer (presuming even odds on all Matchups) is well over 2000x1
Cut that back for the notable favorites - of which they're aren't that many after first weekend - and it's still likely at least 1000x1
So 20 to 1 would likely attract action. Maybe even offer 30x1 and then 15 to 1 if someone gets 10 out of 11 AND the final winner (if misses the final winner, 10 out of 11 doesn't pay).
Cut that back for the notable favorites - of which they're aren't that many after first weekend - and it's still likely at least 1000x1
So 20 to 1 would likely attract action. Maybe even offer 30x1 and then 15 to 1 if someone gets 10 out of 11 AND the final winner (if misses the final winner, 10 out of 11 doesn't pay).
True odds should be somewhere between +20 000 and +30 000
Odds on just the first round favorites is around +700. Now keep doubling that seven more times to see how realistic the chances are
It is possible the average person doesn't understand high school level math, but the extreme stupidity required to think that is realistic requires such mental retardation that they'll just blow their entire ssi check on scratch tickets. If you've found an exception, let alone enough to make more than a few dollars more power to you. . .
Odds on just the first round favorites is around +700. Now keep doubling that seven more times to see how realistic the chances are
It is possible the average person doesn't understand high school level math, but the extreme stupidity required to think that is realistic requires such mental retardation that they'll just blow their entire ssi check on scratch tickets. If you've found an exception, let alone enough to make more than a few dollars more power to you. . .
