Articles That I feel can help you In all Sports

I read A lot of Articles and some are worth keeping...the Plan is to show the Ones that can help your capping


HOW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?


Submitted by ron on Wed, 2010-01-06 02:00

"COACH'S CORNER"
With Two-Time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER!

HOW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?

I've been Coach of the Year in the AFC two times. Once with the Indianapolis Colts. Once with the New England Patriots (both of whom are in the playoffs again this year). I've studied playoff football for as long as I can remember. In my view, coaching matters more in THIS round from the handicapping perspective than at any other time in the playoffs.

Why is that?

You generally have very evenly matched teams playing in the Wildcard round. The best Wildcard teams are often BETTER than the divisional champions they're facing on the road. You see that perception in Las Vegas this week. Home field advantage is worth three points:

• Arizona is laying less than three to Green Bay, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard Green Bay is better than NFC West champion Arizona.
• Cincinnati is laying less than three to the NY Jets, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard New York is better than AFC North champion Cincinnati.
• New England is laying exactly three points to Baltimore, meaning those teams are considered even.
• Dallas opened at -1½ vs. Philadelphia, meaning that oddsmakers thought the market perceived Philadelphia as better...though early money pounded Dallas all the way up to -4.

Needless to say, if nobody's more than a four point favorite in games played on their home fields, then the teams are seen as even!

Coaches are often a "tie breaker" in close games. Sometimes it's for the better, as good coaches find a way to win. Sometimes it's for the worse, as coaches who are inexperienced in playoff action, or who rely too much on their team's talent make mistakes that cause their team to lose.

I'm not going to get too specific in what I think about the eight coaches on the sidelines this week. My analysis will play a big role, probably the BIGGEST role in determining my selections for clients. I can't give that information away for free! I can tell you the general things I look at when evaluating NFL coaches in January.

• Have they been there before? Experience helps a lot when it comes to coaching in the playoffs. You have to make some mistakes before you get it right. Veterans generally know what mistakes to avoid. How many of this week's head coaches, as well as the four bye teams, have been in this position before? Be very careful asking new coaches to thrive. Don't be shocked when veterans do.
• Have they won before? Some coaches just hit a wall when it comes to the playoffs. Marty Schottenheimer was like that. His approach worked great during the regular season. He just didn't have an extra gear in the playoffs. In fact, he's often go BACK a gear and play so conservatively that it kept opponents in the game. Look up each guy's career playoff record. Ideally, you should know their ATS records too. Guys who are poor against Vegas expectations should be avoided, particularly as favorites.
• Do they have a reputation for aggression, or a reputation for conservatism? Aggression wins playoff games. Conservatism may help you pull one upset if you're an underdog catching some breaks, but generally keeps you from advancing more than one round. The last thing you want to do in the playoffs is lay points with a conservative coach.
• How has his team executed the fundamentals? Teams with poor turnover differentials can be in real trouble in the postseason because every mistake is so costly. Teams that get called for a lot of offensive penalties are in trouble because every yard matters so much in a short game that determines your fate. Some coaches are sticklers for execution. Others let their guys play and live with the mistakes. The sticklers are better bets, particularly when getting points from the more lenient coaches.

I don't want you to get the idea that nothing else matters besides coaching. A great coach can't make an inexperienced quarterback an immediate star. A bad coach may not do enough to derail his Hall of Fame bound quarterback. Ideally you want a mix of a great coach with a great team. Do we have that this year? It's tough to say because there are several serious Super Bowl contenders. I strongly believe that coaching quality will end up serving as the tie-breaker which determines who advances week by week, and who will lift the trophy over their heads a few weeks from now.

[Jeff Hochman[/URL] Date: Jan 13, 2010



Arizona Cardinals (11-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-3)

ATS Records: Arizona (9-7-1) vs. New Orleans (8-8)

Saturday, Jan 16, 2010 at 4:37 PM TV: FOX

Current Line: Saints -7 O/U: 57


The Cardinals are flying high after last week's wild shoot-out in the NFL Wild Card round vs. the heavily bet Packers. Not my clients as we had the Cardinals. Maybe we got lucky in OT as Aaron Rogers just missed on a long pass that would have gone for six. The Saints must be licking their chops after watching Aaron Rogers torch Arizona's backfield for 422 yards and 4 TD's. Let's take a look at some stats, angles, systems, and trends that pertain to this contest. If you like the OVER in this game than don't miss the winning angle straight from my database that will knock your socks off.

Last Meeting

That would be on 8/7/08 when the Saints defeated Arizona 24-10 as 2.5-point dogs. You can throw that away as both teams have gone through major player personal turnover since than.

Hall of Fame Bound?

Kurt Warner has thrown for 4,137 yards with 32/14 TD/INT ratio, while completing 67% of his passes. His QB rating is 98.8 this season. Another great season from the former grocery store bag boy. He can read any NFL defense and still has a quick release.

Not far behind!

Drew Brees has thrown for 4,388 yards with a 34/11 TD/INT ratio, while completing 70% of his passes. His passer rating of 109.6 is out of sight! He can read any NFL defense and has a quick release as well. He is only 1-2 SU in his NFL Playoffs career.

Better Offense

The Saints average 404 yards while scoring 32 points per game. The Cards average 356 yards while scoring 25 points per game. The Saints average 7 more points per game which is exactly what the betting line and should be.

Better Defense

The Cardinals average 355 yards against while allowing 22 points per game. The Saints average 358 yards against while allowing 21 points per game. Looks pretty even to me.

Better Special Teams

The Saints rank #1 in overall Special Teams play in the NFC. A formula that calculates kicking, punting, field position, takeaways, giveaways, tackling, and technique. The Cardinals are ranked #4.

Better Coaching Staff

It's about as EVEN as you can get in my opinion.

Intangibles

Saints by playing at home in the second round.

Arizona very confident after last week's win.

Going OVER 57?

Both teams average at least 350 yards on offense and both teams allow at least 350 yards on defense. This has happened only 9 times since 1990 and the OVER is 8-1 in those ball games. I will tell you that the average O/U line in those nine games was 46.5 points. That's a good 10.5 points lower and makes me think the Odds-makers have done their homework. Always respect the Odds-Maker!

Top Trends

The Cardinals are 24-10 SU when playing on Turf since 2007.

The Cardinals are 7-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

Home playoff teams (Saints) coming off three consecutive losses are 3-0 SU and ATS.

Awesome stuff to think about in making your selections. Ace, I never really thought about how important coaching was in a playoff game, usually look at the offense and defense's.
As I sit here and think about that factor I can see how it hurt the Eagles in the 2004 Super Bowl as well as a few NFC Championship games. Reid is notorious for screw ups when it comes to clock management, challenges, time outs, and making changes and adjustments at halftime and during a game. He basically pre-plans the week before a game and has scripted the 1st 25 plays. Not sure if you remember that 2004 SB when the Eagles were behind with 3 minutes to go and they were playing like they had a whole quarter left, no sense of urgency!

TimesYours said:

Awesome stuff to think about in making your selections. Ace, I never really thought about how important coaching was in a playoff game, usually look at the offense and defense's.
As I sit here and think about that factor I can see how it hurt the Eagles in the 2004 Super Bowl as well as a few NFC Championship games. Reid is notorious for screw ups when it comes to clock management, challenges, time outs, and making changes and adjustments at halftime and during a game. He basically pre-plans the week before a game and has scripted the 1st 25 plays. Not sure if you remember that 2004 SB when the Eagles were behind with 3 minutes to go and they were playing like they had a whole quarter left, no sense of urgency!

Click to expand...

Life time winning coachs are the ones I watch the most...you cant beat history.

Any books out there you recommend?

I firmly agree coaching is very very important not only in making a solid winning game plan but also in making the necessary in game adjustments. Hmmmm, although Dom Capers is considered by many a defensive genius the Packers defense surely did not make the necessary adjustments at half-time to stop the QB Warner onslaught. Coaching is very very important.

nman84 said:

Any books out there you recommend?

Click to expand...

No book will show it all...Articles will keep you up todate on whats happening now:toast:AA

WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK TWO OF THE PLAYOFFS


Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-01-14 02:00

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

WHAT THE SHARPS THINK ABOUT WEEK TWO OF THE PLAYOFFS

It's been a very interesting week for sharps as they ponder how to play this weekend's NFL playoff games.

There are key numbers involved in all four of the matchups, with one game stationed near a field goal and the other three at a touchdown. You regulars know that sharps generally like taking underdogs near key numbers. Some will play favorites in the postseason if they believe strongly in home field advantage for a side, or in the fatigue advantage. Obviously they want to take advantage of the key number on that end of the spectrum as well.

Let me run through all four games to show you what the sharps are thinking about this week's card. As always, we'll take the games in schedule order...

ARIZONA AT NEW ORLEANS: This line opened at New Orleans -6½, and moved fairly quickly to the seven. That may just be some early position-taking because sharps assumed the squares (the general public) would be on New Orleans in a home game, and they wanted to set up a middle involving the key number of seven.

I do think there are some sharps who like the Saints at less than a TD though. Remember that Arizona's defense allowed 45 points and 493 yards last week to Green Bay...and now they'll be facing the potent New Orleans attack that had a week to get ready (really more considering how they rested their starters late in the season). The surface at New Orleans is also faster than the one in Arizona too, which might help the Saints run up the score. Obviously sharps who like New Orleans will act early at the lowest possible line. Sharps who like the Cards will wait and see if they can get an even better line later in the week.

Will the squares come in on New Orleans? Squares are tired of losing to Kurt Warner! They were burned by him last year...and some were burned by him again last week. Remember how much that Green Bay line moved. A lot of that was square money that went down the tubes. Between the rate New Orleans was burning money late in the season, and the rate that Warner has burned square money as an underdog, we may not see the Saints get overriding game day support. I'm interested myself to see how that plays out.

The total opened at 56 and went to 57. A lot of sharps will automatically play Unders with numbers in the 50's. The long term history of the league shows that's actually a very sound strategy. Of course, if last week's Green Bay/Arizona game had been totaled at 50, it still would have gone Over by 46 points! The math guys who liked the Over bet early, figuring the public will naturally play the Over in an anticipated shootout. Systems guys who automatically play high Unders will wait to see if they can get a 58 or better on game day.

What's the sharp side? I think you'll see most sharps on the dog and Under (like normal). There are subsets of sharps who will make a case for rested New Orleans at home against tired Arizona on the team side, and the Over based on how last week's GB/Arizona game went. Not a sharp consensus here.


BALTIMORE AT INDIANAPOLIS: This line is probably destined to hop between Indy by 6½ and 7. Sharps will take Baltimore +7 in a heartbeat because they've got the better defense, and a quality team that is known to play close games vs. other top teams. Even if Baltimore loses, they'll probably keep it close is the theory. I know a lot of guys who like Baltimore to win because they're due to win some close games, and because Peyton Manning is due to lose one!

A line of -6½ will probably bring out square bettors on the Colts though. They love betting Peyton Manning at home. They like taking the bye teams in the playoffs historically. A number like 6½ just jumps out at them because a TD victory wins their bet for them. That will set up one-sided action at -6½ one way, and at +7 the other most likely. Sportsbooks will be in bad shape if the game lands on 7. Nobody will lose and half the people will win.

The total dropped from 46½ down to 44 early on. There's clear respect for the Baltimore defense, that's been playing much better lately than they were earlier this season. That unit dominated the win over New England, making Tom Brady look pretty helpless. Sharps who like Baltimore almost automatically like the Under because of game style. The fact that 45 is a key number helped bring that total down as well. The math guys didn't get an Over here...so only Under money came in early on. Squares will bet the Over on game day, particularly if the first game of the TV doubleheader goes Over.

The sharp plays are definitely Baltimore and Under in this one pending weekend developments with news or injuries.


DALLAS AT MINNESOTA: Once again we're seeing the dog and Under here. Dallas +3 was very appealing to sharps who believe that the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC right now. You saw the huge sharp action last week on Dallas when the line vs. Philly jumped from -1½ up to -4. Those guys obviously didn't fall out of love with the Cowboys after the 34-14 win! The only decision to make was whether to bet Dallas at +3 and show their hands...or to wait and see if the public's love of Brett Favre might provide a 3½ at some point.

The consensus midweek was that +3 might be as good as it was going to get from the Dallas perspective, so you might as well take it while it's there. I can tell you that many sharps really LOVE Dallas here at +3. Minnesota closed the season poorly, keyed by awful pass protection. Dallas hassled Donovan McNabb all last week. Sharps expect a reply. On game day, we may be seeing only 2½ or 2...and I'll have to decide what the value play is at the new number for my clients.

The total fell from 48 down to 46, and then to 45½. Similar story here to the Baltimore/Indy game. If you like the dog's defense, you're going to like an Under if you're seeing a number in the mid to high 40's. That's a pretty big move, suggesting very strong sentiment at key numbers like 48 and 47. Has it moved too far? Ask me on Sunday!


NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego opened at -9. Sharps couldn't believe their eyes and immediately jumped on the Jets at +9, +8½, +8, and +7½. Sharps love defense in the playoffs, and the Jets have the best defense in the league. Sharps also like a strong running game, and New York should own the point of attack on that side of the ball as well. A line of SD -9 might stand up if you're only dealing with the public. They like laying points at home with the Chargers. This is a team that does win a lot of blowouts when things are going well. Sportsbooks aren't only dealing with the public though. They'll be hoping the public comes in over the weekend and takes the Chargers...then they'll be hoping the game doesn't land on 8!

A relatively low opening total of 42½ (low for a San Diego home game) hasn't budged much. Sharps usually combine dogs with Unders when they love a defense. This number was so low relative to the others that sharps decided to wait to see if they'd get help from the public. A high scoring weekend might trigger Over bets that shoot this number up to 43 or 44. Sharps are looking to play the Under. They just haven't acted yet.

Definitely a dogs and Under weekend for sharps...which is almost universally the case in sports betting anyway because the public shades toward favorites and Overs. This particular weekend, sharps are looking at the defenses of the NY Jets, Baltimore, and Dallas...which is an amazingly powerful group all things considered. In their minds, this isn't a "cross your fingers and hope the dogs play well" kind of weekend. They're very pleased with their positions and the defenses that will be battling to win their bets.

From one of my Friends at Docsports


Contributed By Vegas Sports Informer
It’s not to soon to start thinking about who is going to play on February 7 in the Super Bowl. LVSC has been doing their homework and sent out odds on possible matchups for Super Bowl XLIV, putting out lines in each of the four possible Super Bowl games. The main question on these possible odds that LVSC sent out is that I hope these aren’t the numbers because I believe some of these lines are soft.
Enough said, here are LVSC numbers and here are my numbers:
Super Bowl XLIV Possible Matchup Odds
LVSC numbers:
New Orleans Saints (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts; 57.0
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts; 50.0
New Orleans Saints (-4) vs. New York Jets; 60.0
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. New York Jets; 40.0
My numbers:
New Orleans (Pk) vs. Indianapolis; 55.0
Minnesota (+3) vs. Indianapolis; 47.5
New Orleans (-6) vs. New York; 49.0
Minnesota (-3.5) vs. New York; 44.0
I’m sure the networks would love to see a Manning vs. Favre Super Bowl and the betting public would also love to see that. A New Orleans vs. N.Y. Jets Super Bowl would be probably be the worst scenario for Vegas, as I believe that the betting public wouldn’t be excited for this matchup.
But who cares who is in this game let’s just make the Super Bowl in January and not February. What’s next: the Super Bowl being played one week before March Madness?

WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES


Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-01-21 02:00

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

We're down to the Final Four in pro football, with the NFC and AFC Championship games scheduled for this Sunday.

It's been a mixed performance for sharps so far this postseason. Generally, if underdogs are doing well, sharps are doing well. That meant success in the first week, when underdogs Arizona, Baltimore, and the NY Jets all won their games outright (don't forget that many sharps loved Dallas that first week two in their blowout of Philly). But, last week was a headache for many because underdogs got waxed until the weekend's final game.

• Arizona started well, but faded quickly in their blowout loss to New Orleans. Guys who had been finding success with the Cardinals finally hit a wall. There are also many old-school guys who play Under any total in the 50's they see. This game went over 57-58 even when it limped to a 45-14 finish. There are some sharps who "bet the bye" because histories used to rule this particular weekend. They did well.
• Baltimore was outclassed by favored Indianapolis Saturday Night. Most sharps liked the defensive dog here, particularly against a Colts team that has a poor history after byes. They knew they were in trouble early because Baltimore was getting such shaky quarterback play. Only guys betting the bye won here. Under money cashed easily though, which helped soften the blow for many sharps.
• Dallas was a popular sharp play because the Cowboys had been on such a roll. I told you a lot of guys loved the Cowboys to go the distance because of their recent form. That talk stopped by halftime. A lot of the guys who had been standing tall during the Philadelphia blowout were suddenly nowhere to be seen. A lot of posturing in Nevada during the football playoffs!
• The NY Jets/San Diego game got very interesting. You probably heard that a well known high roller named Billy Walters was supposedly betting the favored Chargers hand over fist. He had provided a head fake earlier in the week on the Jets to bring the line down to -7. Over the weekend, he came back over the top big on San Diego. That line just kept going higher and higher because of his money, and all the bandwagon bettors who wanted to ride the steam. Sharps who liked dogs gladly took the extra points. Once the score was in the books, the richest guy in sports betting had taken a big loss, but many other dog and Under loving sharps had easy winners.

For the weekend:
Favorites went 3-1 ATS (with easy covers)
Unders went 3-1 ATS (with easy covers)

What do the sharps think about this weekend's conference championship games? Let's take a look...

NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts have been getting early money, with an opener of Indy -7 being bet up to -7½ and -8. Some of that is position-taking to set up a teaser play. Just remember that San Diego KILLED a lot of teasers last week! I can't tell you how many Dallas/San Diego teasers were bet by smart players last week...only to see neither team cover the more favorable line. I do expect some Jets money to come in over the weekend. This is one of those games where favorite money comes in at the low opener...while dog money waits until the last second to see how many points they can get. So, ONLY the Indy money has hit the board so far.

The total has been bet Under, opening at 41 before dropping to 39½ as I write this. Both of these teams played Unders last week, landing on 23 and 31. The Jets played to a 38 in their playoff opener at Cincinnati. When these teams played late in the regular season, it was 15-10 in the third quarter when the starters were pulled...but the Jets TD was on a kickoff return. So, it was more like a 15-3 game. A lot of Under indicators needless to say. The math guys and the system guys liked Under anything at 40 or more. The total seems "bet out" now, so it may not drop further unless there's injury news. Weather won't be an issue with Indy's retractable roof.

They bye teams earned respect last week with strong showings triggered by fresh legs on both sides of the ball. I expect that to minimize the normal dog passion we see from sharps. Indy is still fresh as can be. The Jets are running on emotions right now given their recent challenges. Wildcard teams running on emotions HAVE reached the Super Bowl...so a Colts victory is far from a done deal.

For now, I'd say the Under is a clear sharp play. We'll have to see what happens on game day in terms of underdog money before determining what the sharp team side is. Last week's game day buzz showed the danger of drawing firm midweek conclusions.



MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line here opened New Orleans -4½, and has been bet down to -3½. It's interesting that we didn't see a move all the way down to a field goal. If you liked Minnesota, why would you stop betting at +3½? I think what's happened here is that sportsbooks know they'll get flooded with money on New Orleans -3 if they drop any further. There will be middle shooters from the early position-takers. And, the public tends to like cheap home favorites in big TV games. Should the public break form and bet Brett Favre as an underdog, this line will definitely drop further. If they back the Saints, that would set up a tug-of-war between squares (the public) on the cheap home favorite, and sharps on the quality road underdog getting more than a field goal.

The total has dropped from 54 down to 52½ You know old school guys like taking the Unders at high lights. Given last week's scores, there's an assumption that defense and running the clock are going to make it tough to fly by this number. We've only had one wild and crazy shootout so far (Arizona/Green Bay). The media was suggesting before the playoffs began that we'd be seeing mostly that type of game. Instead, it's mostly been defense and ball control. You'd think the media would hire some sharps to teach them a little about playoff football!

Maybe we'll find out that there's another high roller head fake in play, and that big money will come over the top on New Orleans at -3. For now, I think the dog and Under are probably the sharp plays. That's a safe assessment about most any betting game in all of sports.

Submitted by nick on Mon, 2010-01-25 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
ODDSMAKERS, SHARPS, SQUARES

ALL SURPRISED BY NORTH CAROLINA
It's rare to have oddsmakers, sharps (professional wagerers) and squares (the general public) all surprised at the same thing at the same time. Usually at least ONE of those groups saw something coming. And, most often, it's a combination of oddsmakers and sharps exploiting a lack of knowledge by squares.
In the case of North Carolina's poor play this year, EVERYONE is surprised!
Sure, we knew that the team lost a lot of talent to the NBA in the offseason. But, we've seen that before. It's become fairly common in the 'one and done' era for teams to rebuild immediately with in influx of talent. One set of McDonald's All-Americans moves on, a new set comes in. North Carolina has a bunch of guys from that list. Why aren't they winning?
Before I try to answer that question, let's review what's happened so far. Here's a list of North Carolina's board games this year. You'll note that the team was overrated early, and seems to have gotten MORE overrated as the season has progressed!
North Carolina (-32) beat Florida International 88-72

North Carolina (-23) beat Valpo 88-77

North Carolina (-2) beat Ohio State 77-73

North Carolina (-2) lost to Syracuse 87-71
Let me stop there. That's the season opener that Isaiah Thomas tried to get cancelled, then matchups in a preseason tourney (the last two games you may have watched on ESPN from Madison Square Garden. The Heels missed the spread by double digits in the first two games, failing to blowout teams that were badly outmanned in terms of raw talent. The win over Ohio State was nice, but the Syracuse game was a bit of a debacle. Now, Syracuse has turned out to be pretty good, potentially a team that will go a long way come March. North Carolina was badly outclassed though, which is something that's not supposed to happen to a Roy Williams coached team on a neutral floor.
To this point, the Heels are 1-3 ATS, with their misses coming by 16, 12, and 18 points. Oddsmakers clearly have them overvalued. Sharps are watching and learning. Squares are mostly paying attention to football. Those who bet waited until the TV games and went 1-1 with their Vegas bets.
North Carolina (-15) beat Nevada 80-73

North Carolina (-1.5) beat Michigan State 89-82

North Carolina (+3) lost to Kentucky 68-66
This brings us up to December 5th. Carolina would only play one non-board game in the next two weeks (Presbyterian) because of exams. You can see the lines adjusting, as -1.5 at home is VERY cheap to get the Tar Heels, and +3 is a lot to get with Carolina at a time when nobody believed much in Kentucky (that's sure changed now!). Amazingly, squares focusing on TV games are 3-1 betting on North Carolina! Oddsmakers were concerned they had overreacted to the loss to Syracuse and the unimpressive wins at blowout spreads. They were about to adjust back in favor of the Heels. I was watching sharp action very closely at this time (as I always do). I'd have to say sharps hadn't made up their minds yet. They weren't going to lay big numbers with the Heels. They would be considering them at reasonable spreads vs. quality opposition.
North Carolina (+7) lost to Texas 103-90

North Carolina (-13) beat Marshall 98-61

North Carolina (-20) beat Rutgers 81-67

North Carolina (-13) lost to Charleston 82-79 in overtime
You probably watched North Carolina lose to Texas in the new Dallas Cowboys stadium. That loss looks worse now that the Horns faded so badly after reaching the #1 spot. Texas should have lost at home to Texas A&M, then did lose to Kansas State and Connecticut last week. Looks like BOTH Texas and North Carolina were overrated on the day of that game!
A blowout win over Marshall was followed by poor performances against Rutgers and College of Charleston. Rutgers is awful this year, yet we have Carolina posting another lethargic win over a doormat. Somebody like Charleston just shouldn't beat a national power like North Carolina!
You can see why this team has been frustrating for everyone. As soon as they play a good game and look like they have things figured out (Ohio State, Michigan State, Marshall), they start stumbling around again and underachieving. The public was fortunate the games with Rutgers and Charlotte weren't in prominent TV windows (though the upset got some play when it was clear the Heels were in danger).
That brings us to ACC action. Again, Carolina started with a teasing victory followed by very poor results.
North Carolina (-8) beat Virginia Tech 78-64

North Carolina (+5) lost to Clemson 83-64

North Carolina (-6) lost to Georgia Tech 73-71

North Carolina (-6) lost to Wake Forest 82-69
That's 1-3 straight up and ATS (a bye this past Saturday), with the misses coming by 14, 8, and 19 points. And, Carolina was way behind Georgia Tech before 'rallying' to just miss the spread by eight.
The oddsmakers are just as far off as they were before. The public couldn't believe they were getting five points with NC at Clemson, couldn't believe they were so affordable in the home bounce back spot against Georgia Tech, then figured there's no way Carolina would lose THREE IN A ROW, that never happens! Even some sharps stepped in on the Heels vs. Wake, figuring Roy Williams would make sure a three-game losing streak didn't happen. It did.
Where does that leave the three groups?
*Squares aren't as bad off as they could have been because of the early 3-1 ATS mark in TV games, but they really got nailed badly last week...as they doubled up and tripled up figuring Carolina wouldn't keep losing. That doesn't work in blackjack, roulette, or sports betting.
*Sharps have been kicking themselves for not jumping in against Carolina sooner. They see money 'not won' as money lost...and this was an opportunity missed in that sense. The guys who took a shot on Carolina against Wake are REALLY mad. Nothing makes a sharp madder than losing a game where they mistakenly bet like a square.
*Oddsmakers don't know what to do. They've already made some big price adjustments as you can see in those last four games. Carolina was -23 last year at home vs. Georgia Tech rather than -6! Those three other games were at opposite sites last year in the alternating schedule. The spreads have all adjusted double digits once you account for home court advantage.
Do oddsmakers dare do something crazy like making North Carolina pick-em at home against Georgia Tech or Wake Forest...or +10 at Clemson? The Heels would have gone 0-3 ATS against THOSE spreads!
Carolina is already at least 10 points lower in the Power Ratings from last season, and it hasn't been enough. Sharps are licking their chops because they see a wounded animal trying to hide in a cave. How will oddsmakers find the number that splits public and sharp action? There's a chance to really make good money with the vigorish or by making the public swallow an extra point or two. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch.
Here's the coming schedule:

Tuesday: North Carolina at NC State (and State just drilled Duke)

Sunday: Virginia at North Carolina (smart defensive opponent)

February 4: North Carolina at Virginia Tech

February 7: North Carolina at Maryland

February 10: Duke at North Carolina
That's a dangerous stretch needless to say. Carolina enters it with a 1-3 record both ways, and will be facing tough challenges five games in a row. Three matchups are on the road. Virginia is a tough out this year. Duke is a tough out every year. Could the world renowned North Carolina Tar Heels be something like 1-8 or 2-7 after nine ACC games?!
A lot of these games will be on TV, so this is something you (and I) should be studying very closely. The North Carolina team I'm seeing right now has ALL of these problems:
*They have no confidence

*They're inconsistent from long range (hurting their comeback ability)

*They're not aggressive on defense (newcomers still learning rotations)

*They have a tendency to make turnovers under pressure
Remember that kids of this caliber aren't used to losing. They've been stars at whatever level they were playing since grade school. To this point, they're not handling adversity well at all.

new Content


Submitted by nick on Thu, 2010-01-28 02:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
MOST SHARPS PREFER COLLEGE HOOPS TO THE NBA
Now that football is winding down (just one game left), it's time for me to focus on what sharps are doing in basketball. Most of my articles here at the website between now and March Madness will focus on college hoops. Among the reasons:
*Most readers are much more interested in college basketball than the NBA right now.
*Most sharps are much more active in college basketball than the NBA right now.
*There are more interesting things happening in college betting than NBA betting this year.
*I personally am a huge fan of college basketball, particularly the buzz and excitement that fills the sportsbooks during March Madness.
Don't get me wrong. I'll do the NBA justice before the playoffs arrive, and during a postseason that should feature several exciting matchups. There will come a time when LeBron James and Kobe Bryant will be on EVERYBODY's minds. Late January and early February are mostly about college hoops (plus the Super Bowl) here in Nevada.
There are some sharps who focus on the NBA. There will always be computer groups who love betting totals. Oddsmakers have computers of their own these days, and are doing a great job of holding their own in that area. There are a handful of hoop handicappers who download every NBA game on their computer and chart things play-by-play. Oddsmakers won't ever reach that level of analysis. But, they have other ways to combat that kind of sharp action (charting betting patterns, reacting quickly to informed money, etc..). If I had to sum up the battle between sharps and oddsmakers right now, it's in the field of college basketball rather than pro.
Here's why:
*There are so many teams to follow that it's very hard for oddsmakers to have every single board team pegged perfectly. You know what you're getting in the NBA. Some college teams are still sorting out their seasons even as they reach the midpoint of conference play. A few have really clicked in recent days. I mentioned in my last article that North Carolina lost its mojo. Both oddsmakers and sharps would agree that the potential for the biggest edges come in the colleges.
*There's been an emphasis on college totals from a new younger breed of handicapper. They've really attacked totals in recent seasons, causing Nevada (and offshore) sportsbooks to be much more aggressive with limits (particularly early in the season) and line movement strategies. Some of the old school guys either bought up or tried to follow this newer breed, leading to an entertaining battle of wits in the market. The NBA may have been like that in the 1980's or 90's. College totals represent the brave new world right now.
*The public prefers college action...and sharps make their money by exploiting squares! You go where the free points are. If the squares aren't really going to get too involved with LeBron and Kobe until the playoffs, you won't be getting free points betting against the Cavs and Lakers now. You'll get those free points betting against the big name college powers (think of all the power programs that have been in cover slumps of late). Sharps typically gain a bigger edge fading the public than they do in pure mathematical handicapping against the spread. Oddsmaker math and sharp math are fairly similar. When free points are in the line because of public betting, those points are arguably worth more than ever.
*College stats are much more easily available than in the distant past. Everybody's always had power ratings. Back in the 80's or 90's, that's all anybody had. It was just too hard to track down boxscores from all the board games, and to know the statistical strengths and weaknesses of teams in the lesser conferences. Now that stuff is available many places across the web. ESPN runs live in-game boxscores as they're being played! Some stat sites will tell you things that coaches don't even know about their own teams. Sharps willing to do the work (or hire people to do the work) can now build comprehensive profiles of any team on the board. It's natural to focus your efforts here now that the data is so easily accessed.
*Media coverage creates inequities in information...and inequities can be exploited. Sportsbooks run the national TV games every night on their big screens. That's what fans want to see. That's what oddsmakers are forced to watch if they're taking care of business around their sportsbook. Pick any Vegas or Reno oddsmaker. If you ask him about Duke, or Kentucky, or Kansas, or Syracuse, he'll be able to talk for as long as you want about the strengths and weaknesses of that team (and about how the money is coming in for games involving those teams). If you ask him about Northern Illinois, or Wyoming, or Tulane, he'll have to go look up his power rating while he tries to remember some recent results off the top of his head. Hardly anyone is betting games involving that type of team. They're not on his radar in the same way.
Sharps put those teams on their radars, and try to find soft spots to exploit.
For these reasons, and others we'll discuss in future weeks, I'll be focusing very intently on college hoops between now and the end of March. I will have my annual 'What the Sharps are Thinking about the Super Bowl' article up next Thursday to give you plenty of time to make your final choices in that game. Otherwise, it's a college hoops buffet through the Dance.
:
WEDNESDAY

Vanderbilt at Tennessee on ESPNU

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State on ESPN2

Texas Tech at Texas on ESPNU

Florida State at Duke on ESPN
THURSDAY

Wisconsin at Purdue on ESPN

Gonzaga at Santa Clara on ESPN2

Everything in the Pac 10 because I own that conference!
FRIDAY

Butler at Wisconsin Green Bay on ESPNU

Everything in the Ivy League in one of my favorite legal betting leagues.
SATURDAY

Louisville at West Virginia on ESPN

Duke at Georgetown on CBS

Oklahoma State at Missouri on ESPN2

Notre Dame at Rutgers on ESPN2

Kansas at Kansas State on ESPN
There are a bunch of March Madness type teams in the listings (even traditional Cinderella's like Gonzaga and Butler), and several games that will have a tournament feel to them (particularly Duke/Georgetown Saturday). If you're just now getting into the baskets, this is a great week to get started!
You'll enjoy your transition from football to basketball even more if you're making some extra money. I hope you'll give the chance to show you firsthand why the best information always comes DIRECT FROM NEVADA!

DIRECT FROM NEVADA

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
STRATEGIES FOR HANDICAPPING

SUPER BOWL PROPS
It's Super Bowl week in Las Vegas and Reno, meaning that sports bettors are focused on:
*Who they're going to bet on when Indianapolis plays New Orleans this coming Sunday.
*Which props they're going to bet on.
Proposition bets have become really BIG business for sportsbooks. And, they've become a headache for oddsmakers! But it's a good kind of headache because we know that coming up with appealing prop bets will help out our employers. If you give the public something to bet on, the public will lose!
Here's why prop bets make so much money for sportsbooks:
*Squares love them! The public knows this is the last football season of the year, so they want to place as many bets as they can afford. They don't think about being responsible, or trying to finish off their season bankrolls with a nice profit. They'll bet whatever they can afford to play...and often amounts that are beyond what they can afford.
*Sharps love them too, but limits are generally so small that they can't make a killing against a bad number. We're able to move off sharp action when we see it, limiting what they can earn. Or, if we sense that the public is going to come in strong the other way, we'll just stay on the side of the sharps and root against the public. Once all the money is in, so much public money is taking the worst of it that we'll be okay.
*There are several propositions where the bet is to guess which player is going to do something (score the first points, score the first touchdown, catch the first pass, get the first interception). These are always big moneymakers for the house because only ONE guy can be the first...and whoever bets on anyone else loses! These never pay at true odds. If the 'favorite' comes through, it doesn't pay much. If a longshot comes through, hardly anyone bet on him anyway! This is one reason NASCAR betting took a hit after some initial interest. Betting on whoever won the race meant most everyone lost their bets. That's not much fun. If we ran Super Bowl props in this style every week in the regular season, squares would grow to hate them. For one big game, they love them!
*In terms of individual player props...meaning Over/Unders on how many yards a quarterback will pass for, how many yards a running back will rush for, how many yards a receiver will accumulate with his catches, squares are VERY predictable in how they're going to bet. They always take the OVER!
Colts fans expect Peyton Manning to have a big day. Saints fans expect Drew Brees to have a big day. Saints fans are much more interested in betting Brees to go Over than they are to bet Manning Under. They'll root against Manning. But they won't bet that he won't get his yardage. So, virtually all square bets on player props are on the Over. That makes it very simple to 'tax' squares so they take the worst of it.
If oddsmakers think a QB will throw for 250 yards...we'll make the line 260 or more. If we think a running back will go for 80, we'll make the line 90. We're getting the 11/10 return on the lost bets, AND getting free yards in our favor. We just can't go wrong unless EVERY player clears their hurdles. We haven't had a Super Bowl shootout like that, really ever. Maybe this is the year it happens. But, even if the QB's have a big game the running backs won't...so there's some built in protection for the books.
You can see why the number of available prop bets has exploded over the years. THEY MAKE MONEY FOR THE BOOKS! Why only have a few if each new prop is a license to print money? I thought we were getting close to the limit for what the market would bear a few years ago. Turned out we've about doubled the number of props since then, and there's an appetite for more.
What's the SHARP way to play Super Bowl props? I always want you thinking like a sharp and betting like a sharp. If you're going to play props this weekend, here are some tips that will keep you from betting like a square:
*Don't bet on those horse racing type props where you're trying to pick which guy is going to score first or get the first interception. The payoffs are so bad on those that you're not getting what you deserve if you win. You're probably going to lose, and a victory isn't as great as you think. Just avoid them unless you think you have some sort of strategic read that isn't captured in the line. Maybe you know the team so well that you know which cornerback they're going to throw at. If he offers value as the first guy to get an interception, I could see the bet. For the most part, you're throwing your money away if you bet on these.
*Look to bet UNDER on individual player props rather than Over. This should be obvious to you based on our discussion today. And, you regular readers know I harp on this ever year. If we're jacking up the lines to tax the squares, then the value is in taking those free yards. You won't enjoy the 11/10 we get on last bets. But, those free yards will generally earn value over time. Again, maybe this is a dangerous year for that because of explosive offenses. Who would have wanted any proposition Unders in the Green Bay/Arizona game a few weeks ago? I can tell you that sharps are looking to bet Unders this year for the most part. They do that every season. Even if it doesn't work out this year, sharps are so far ahead over the years with the approach that they won't sweat it. You take the value and you let the games play themselves.
*Don't play hunches! This may kill squares more than anything. They imagine they can see the future, and they start making a bunch of crazy bets based the game they've dreamed up. I've heard guys sit at a bar and outline exactly what they think is going to happen quarter by quarter through the whole game. They're rarely close!
When a sharp makes a bet, he can explain exactly why he's making that bet. And, he can usually point to past games where things played out the way he's expecting. He'll show you why the running back will or won't have a good game. He'll show you why a quarterback is likely to struggle. The point is, he'll have REASONS! He's not just hoping something is going to play out a certain way. He expects it to. Big difference. Squares bet way too much on what they hope is going to happen, or on uninformed visions of how a game will play out.
*Respect your fellow sharps. I know guys, particularly in Las Vegas, who don't handicap the props themselves, they just monitor the sharp action from other people and follow along at slightly worse lines. As an oddsmaker, I know that our first guesses on what the prop lines should be are going to miss the mark sometime. Heck, I may have just invented the idea for the prop a few minutes earlier! I'll try to put up the very best number. Sometimes I'm wrong. A sharp will hit the opener and I'll move it a little. Other sharps riding the sharp action will come in some more...not having the full edge but enjoying enough to make it worth their while.
Sharps are picky when it comes to props...so sharp bets are truly meaningful. They have to REALLY like something to get involved. Their action must be respected. Do the best you can to monitor early sharp betting (chart the line moves before the public comes in over the weekend to invest), and see if you can exploit stale lines at other stores.

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH


WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING
ABOUT SUNDAY'S SUPER BOWL


We've come to our final football report of the season. Nevada HATES it when football is over! But, sportsbooks love the fact that the single biggest betting event of the entire calendar year closes out the show.


Most of the time, Las Vegas and Reno make a good chunk of change on this game (losses happen, but are relatively rare). Given the current economy, Nevada could use a good chunk of change.


There's always been a myth that sportsbooks automatically clean up in the Super Bowl. Half the bettors take the favorite. Half take the dog. Sportsbooks pocket the 10% vigorish. Since this is the biggest betting event of the year, that's a lot of vigorish.


You regulars know that's not what happens. The 'splitting the action' myth is great in theory. Reality just doesn't cooperate very often. THIS is what oddsmakers and sportsbooks are usually dealing with:


*Squares (the general public) are laying the points with the favorite. Squares almost always bet the favorite. They want to invest in the 'best' team in any game they play, and they don't care what the line is.


*Squares who do bet the dog are doing it on the moneyline. They think their team is going to win straight up, and they want that added return. I can't tell you how much action Nevada wrote on the Jets to beat the Colts outright two Sundays ago. If they're going to take a dog, squares want to do something BOLD. They want to brag to their buddies that they called an upset. And, fans of the team want to root for a straight up win. Truly avid fans want the joy of a Super Bowl victory. That's something you remember your whole life. 'Yeah, we lost but I covered the +5' doesn't resonate the same way.


*Sharps (professional wagerers) know that sportsbooks shade the lines against the public, so they've come in strong over the years AGAINST the tendencies you've just read. Since the squares lay the points, sharps prefer to take the points as a general rule. They know they're getting an extra point or two in the line, often more. Think about this game. If Indianapolis was playing New Orleans during the regular season, would the Colts be -8 at home, and -2 on the road? A Super Bowl line of -5 is suggesting that because home field advantage is worth three points. We obviously have some perception inflation in the mix this year. Sharps take the free points, knowing that the approach will serve them well over the thousands of games they bet.


*Sharps have developed a very strong tendency to take favorites on the moneyline in Super Bowls. Normally, Wise Guy bettors don't lay odds in much of anything. But, several years back, they realized there was value laying the odds. Remember, sportsbooks shade their numbers against public action...and the only public action on moneylines is the dog bettors wanting to make a score. Squares who like favorites lay points rather than high odds. And, if you look over Super Bowl history...favorites have a great straight up record! The reality justified the strategy.


So, it's SQUARES laying points on the favorite, or taking odds with the dog. It's SHARPS taking points with the underdog, or laying odds with the favorite.


Hopefully you noticed a hidden benefit of the sharp approach. Sharps can hit a middle!


This happened last year when Pittsburgh beat Arizona but didn't cover the spread. If you had Pittsburgh on the moneyline (winner) and Arizona plus the points (winner) you swept the board. Squares didn't bet both...but they ALL basically lost! Pittsburgh minus the points didn't get there. Arizona to win outright didn't get there.


Folks, THIS is one of the main reasons why sportsbooks made good money on past Super Bowls. Sportsbooks were in position to hit the middle, while the public was in position to get middled as a group. Sharps have come in to carve out a piece of that pie.


'What about handicapping?' you ask. The public doesn't handicap! They have the same tendencies regardless of the line. Sharps have always found it more profitable to 'handicap the public' rather than trying to 'handicap the game.' Sure, sharps do study the game closely to see if any edges exist. What they find strongly influences how they bet Super Bowl propositions. Oddsmakers do a good enough job that the game line is typically going to be where it needs to be all things considered.


With that as a backdrop, let me outline what the sharps are thinking about this week's showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. I want to personally thank all of you who have been with me this season and in past years reading these 'what the sharps are thinking' reports. I'm honored by the attention they've been getting.


TEAM SIDE


Indianapolis opened at as low as -3 in some places, but generally in the 4 to 4.5 range across the landscape. It was clear Indy money was coming in early, and the betting line had to reflect that. Why the early money?


*The number was posted in many places as soon as the Minnesota/New Orleans game ended...and squares were ready to bet! Sportsbooks were jammed with TV viewers who figured they'd bet the Super Bowl right away while they were in a book.


*Squares bet favorites.


*Squares just watched New Orleans play relatively poorly in a lucky win over Minnesota, a few hours after watching Indianapolis post a double digit win over the Jets. Who else would the squares bet at seemingly cheap lines like -3 or -4?


*Sharps knew the public would be all over the Colts, and they wanted to set up early position so they could shoot a middle after the line moved. If the line went all the way to -6 or -7, a middle starting at -3 or -4 had great potential.


*Some sharps did like the Colts at the low number. Indy earned respect with their double digit wins over Baltimore and the Jets in the AFC half of the brackets. New Orleans ended the regular season poorly, then didn't play to standards against Minnesota. Sharps who wanted to take Peyton Manning knew they'd have to bet early before line moves chopped away at their value.


Within the past few days, we've seen some New Orleans money come in because of the Dwight Freeney situation. When it became public that his ankle injury was going to be an issue, dog players acted quickly. Freeney is a defensive force. It will be much more difficult for Indy to win big if he can't play, or if he's out there just taking up space rather than having an impact. It looks like this will be a story all weekend. Freeney will do whatever it takes to play. There's just no way to know as I write this what the situation will be like Sunday morning and afternoon. News on Freeney one way or the other is likely to trigger betting action.


As we got to press, Indianapolis is -4.5 or -5 depending on where you shop. Five isn't a key number, so individual stores are posting a line that best fits their clientele.


The current moneyline prices are Indianapolis -210 (plus or minus 5-10 cents depending on the store), New Orleans +175. Sharps are hoping the news about Freeney drives the moneyline lower through the week. They figure Peyton Manning will find a way to win the game for them.


TOTAL


The Over/Under opened at 56, and is currently 56.5.


Squares typically bet the Over in Super Bowls. Well, they bet the Over in ANYTHING. They had a great run in Super Bowls for several years there because the games kept flying Over. That's calmed down a little in recent seasons. Given a potential shootout involving big name quarterbacks, public action is destined for the Over this Sunday.


Sharps love betting Unders at totals in the 50's. That's a +EV subset dating back many years. Now, they did take a bath during that high scoring Super Bowl run way back when. That was just a blip on the radar in terms of the overall strategy.


Sharps might be a little hesitant in terms of betting this time around though. Three of the four playoff games involving these teams went Over the total:


Indianapolis/Baltimore landed on 23 (Under)
Indianapolis/NY Jets landed on 47 (Over by a TD)
New Orleans/Arizona landed on 59 (49 in the first half!)
New Orleans/Minnesota landed on 59


The longer term history of high numbers favors an Under. Sharps are fully aware this game could blow up like many Saints games often do...particularly with a guy like Manning on the field. He's been in his share of shootouts as well.


Normally, I'm talking about how the sharps are on some variation of 'dog and Under.' I'd have to say, though, that most of what I'm hearing this year in terms of true passion is on Indianapolis to win straight up on the moneyline. Sharps feel strongest about that (many have seem to forgotten how painful their affection for New England was against the Giants two years ago!). They will be positioned to try and hit middles...while rooting for a non-shootout that stays Under...with some extra proposition bets hopefully adding to their profit. Indianapolis to win straight up would represent their 'top play.'

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH


HOW MUCH IS HOME COURT WORTH
IN COLLEGE HOOPS


I get asked this from time to time. Usually a few times a year. I'm always amazed that people can't figure it out for themselves in college basketball. There are so many home-and-home matchups in conference play that it's very easy to see what the market thinks about home court.


As a general rule, home court is worth 4 points. That means you'll see an 8-point swing between sites.


If Kansas is laying 14 points to somebody at home, they'll be about -6 on the road against that same team. Should those same two teams meet in the Big 12 tournament on a neutral court, then Kansas will be about -10.


If two evenly matched teams square off, the home team will be -4 both times, and the matchup would be pick-em in a neutral floor tournament setting.


Very simple. Just look at your power ratings then give four extra points to the home team.


You'll sometimes hear from TV announcers that home court is worth a lot more than that. They'll get caught up in the spirit of a raucous crowd and give the noise way too much benefit in terms of influencing the result. Sure, there are games where it seems like home court is worth more than four points. Let's not forget though the occasional home upset where a big name team drops a game on its own floor, or barely survives overtime as a big favorite. If you look at ALL the games, you'll see that four is a good number.


I know some handicappers like to tweak that a little…giving certain sites five points instead of four if there's a great home history…while giving others just three if crowds are sparse and nobody seems to care about the program. I can live with that. I think the very best handicappers do pick up an edge by making those adjustments. The problem is, many not-so-great handicappers get themselves into trouble by thinking they see things that aren't really there. They adjust when they shouldn't. Sparse crowds don't always mean a poor home court advantage. Rabid crowds sometimes get the visitors fired up.


The fact that pro race drivers are comfortable at well over 100 mph doesn't mean YOU should be driving that fast! Handicapping is hard. It's even harder if you're making adjustments on air.


Probably the biggest mistake I see in this area involves low quality teams. I'll hear guys say something like 'that team is so bad they don't have any home court advantage at all!'


Then, you look at the numbers, and you see something like this:
Road losses: -12 points on average
Home losses: -4 points on average


The team will have a poor won-lost record, but they still actually have the normal home court advantage. They're less terrible at home than on the road, and that margin still works out to about four points. A team like this will have sparse home crowds. They won't have anyone talking about the postseason. But, they actually have a normal home court edge. Don't look at won-lost records. Look at scoring margins!


Another danger I see is that people will overreact to a small sample size. A team will score a few home blowouts, and suddenly bettors think they're indestructible at home. They'll allot 5-6 points for home floor if they're numbers guys. Or, they just won't even think about the math and they'll lay whatever spread they see on the 'hot' home team. You can't judge something like this off just a few games.


In fact, one season isn't enough if you're talking about one individual team. Throw a couple hundred board teams in the hopper, and you'll get four points (USA Today's computer was showing exactly 4.00 the other day when I checked). Look at one team over several years in conference play (where you can compare road games to home games against the same schedule), and you're likely to get something close to four points.


One tip I would give is that home court is often greater in conferences that are more spread out geographically. I noticed this several years ago. Travel is a bigger influence in home court advantage than the media realizes…and the loudness of the crowd is a smaller influence.


*Think about rewarding 4.5 or 5 points in games where the visitor had to make a long trip, particularly if it's to a relatively small college town that's not near a big airport.


*Think about rewarding 3 or 3.5 points in games where the visitor hardly had to travel at all. The Big West has several California teams that are relatively close to each other. In some years home court just doesn't matter much. The Big East ranges from the Northeast down to South Florida on the Eastern seaboard, and over to teams like Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Marquette in the Midwest. Look for wider ranges when teams are playing out of their region.


*Think about rewarding less than 4 for teams that play home-and-home every year, but slightly more in those big conferences that only see some sites every other year. Teams in the Big 12 South only visit three Big 12 North sites per season, then they don't go back for two years. Same thing in the SEC when you're looking at the East playing the West. Maybe Baylor is more comfortable travelling to Austin or College Station than they are Lincoln or Manhattan. Tennessee sees Kentucky and Georgia every year, Auburn and Miss. State less often.


February is probably the month that this will matter most in your personal handicapping. You're just now getting up to speed in college hoops because football ended. March is full of neutral site tournament action (conference tournaments and the Big Dance) where there aren't any adjustments for home floor. NOW is the time to keep home court advantage in the proper perspective.

Super Bowl Recap from a Bookie
by Richard Gardner | Bodog Sportsbook Manager - 2/9/2010


History was made on Super Bowl Sunday and I know I can’t speak for every football fan or online sportsbook when I say this, but it sure was fun to watch. From start to finish, you knew that this was going to be one of those unforgettable games. I’m not at all surprised that 106.5 million viewers tuned in watch the New Orleans Saints defeat the Indianapolis Colts (by a score of 31-17) to take their first Super Bowl title and break the 1983 record held by the season finale of “M*A*S*H” and become the most-watched television program in the history of American broadcasting.
More than a few of those millions had a wager or two (or 20) on the game’s NFL lines and Super Bowl props as well.

It was a very good day at Bodog, even though we had to pay out all those Saints moneyline (+165) bets. Our handle easily surpassed last year’s and, I have to admit, was a very pleasant surprise. And on that note, a big welcome goes out to all our new players that signed up for the big game.
A few more notes from Bodog Sportsbook:
The majority of the action was on the Colts to cover the spread, which closed at 5, down from 6 after a late surge of New Orleans money. Most bettors took the Colts (-1) at half time as well, another wager that turned out best for the book.
We also did extremely well when it came to the total, which closed at 57. And we didn’t even have to sweat when Peyton Manning failed to get a touchdown in the waning minutes of the game.
We did not do well on the New Orleans moneyline, however. And some of our props were very popular and profitable with the players, too. A good number of bettors took Pierre Garcon to be the first player to score a touchdown and made a very nice return when he hauled in a 19-yard pass from Manning in the first quarter.
Players also predicted that Manning would throw for over 300 yards. There was less action on Drew Brees to go over 300, which was unfortunate for us because he only threw for 288.
Most of the Brees action was on his MVP odds, which closed at 2/1.
Even a lot of the fun props went the players’ way; the color of the Gatorade that drenched the winning coach (orange) and the number of guitar windmills The Who’s Pete Townshend did over the 5.5 mark. (I lost track. Darn good thing we had someone else keep count.)
The coin toss is always a huge favourite over at Bodog, with most of our players winning when “heads” came up yet again.
On a personal note, I’d like to thank all of our players and all the readers over at Doc’s; it’s been a great season and I look forward to giving you more inside info from our online sportsbook as we shift our focus now to NBA and college basketball. The 2010 Winter Olympics should also provide some interesting numbers as well.

February 8th, 2010
Because It’s Never Too Early To Start Football Betting For 2010-11

<!-- spost -->By Robert Ferringo
The Saints have barely had a chance to make reservations for motherf$&kin’ Disney Land but already I have my sights on next year’s NFL season. There is no offseason in the life of a pro gambler. I think on the mothership this week I may actually do a full breakdown of the futures odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl, as well as futures odds to win the AFC championship and futures odds to win the NFC championship. One of the key things to do is to make a note of the futures odds when they are posted - which is a pure reflection of the last impressions that “the public” have on the teams from this year - and compare them to what they are in August. The teams with the biggest difference, positive and negative, are usually pretty good teams to play on and fade in a given season.
I do know this though: while I won’t be betting on the Colts to win the AFC Title or the Super Bowl next year (they really weren’t THAT good this year) I know that I won’t be betting against them under the guise of the “Super Bowl Loser’s Curse”. And given the parity (and the partying) that the Saints will have to deal with I know that I won’t be banking on a repeat next year either. (They had an amazingly soft schedule this year; no such luck next season.)
In the meantime, here are the odds for next year’s champions:
ODDS TO WIN THE 2010-2011 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Open
Indianapolis 13/4
New England 9/2
San Diego 9/2
Pittsburgh 13/2
N.Y. Jets 17/2
Tennessee 10/1
Baltimore 11/1
Houston 14/1
Miami 15/1
Cincinnati 18/1
Denver 22/1
Jacksonville 22/1
Cleveland 30/1
Buffalo 50/1
Kansas City 60/1
Oakland 60/1
ODDS TO WIN THE 2010-2011 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Updated Wed Feb 3 9:28 PM EDT
Team Open
New Orleans 7/2
Dallas 4/1
Green Bay 9/2
Minnesota 11/2
N.Y. Giants 15/2
Philadelphia 10/1
Atlanta 10/1
Chicago 14/1
Arizona 20/1
San Francisco 20/1
Washington 25/1
Carolina 30/1
Detroit 40/1
Seattle 40/1
Tampa Bay 60/1
St. Louis 75/1
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLV
Updated Wed Feb 3 9:29 PM EDT
Team Open
Indianapolis 13/2
New Orleans 7/1
Dallas 15/2
New England 17/2
San Diego 17/2
Green Bay 19/2
Minnesota 11/1
Pittsburgh 12/1
N.Y. Jets 14/1
N.Y. Giants 15/1
Philadelphia 18/1
Atlanta 20/1
Tennessee 22/1
Baltimore 24/1
Chicago 28/1
Miami 30/1
Houston 30/1
Cincinnati 35/1
Arizona 40/1
Denver 45/1
Jacksonville 45/1
San Francisco 45/1
Washington 50/1
Cleveland 60/1
Carolina 60/1
Detroit 80/1
Seattle 80/1
Buffalo 100/1
Kansas City 125/1
Oakland 125/1
Tampa Bay 125/1
St. Louis 150/1

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH


THE MYTH OF SPLITTING THE ACTION


I've talked a lot in the past about the myth of 'splitting the action' in sports betting. There's a public perception that sportsbooks try to find lines that encourage half the bettors to take one side, and half to take the other. Sportsbooks face no risk, and pocket the 10 percent vigorish on losing bets. Great in theory!


Well, the official tabulations for the Super Bowl just came out. Nevada took in more than $82 million in total handle, and earned a profit of $6.8 million.


If all the money was on picking one team or the other ...and all the action had been split evenly, what would Nevada have made? That's easy to figure. If $82 million was bet, that would mean $41 million one way, $41 million the other...and a profit of $4.1 million from the vigorish.


Nevada made $6.8 million, not $4.1 million.


Same story last year. In fact, this year's numbers are very similar to last year's numbers. In the Pittsburgh/Arizona game, Nevada took in $81.5 million in total handle, and earned $6.7 million. That's more than just splitting the action and pocketing the vigorish obviously.


The best take for Nevada was in the 2005 Super Bowl involving Philadelphia and New England. Roughly $90 million was bet on the big game (back when the economy was better!). Nevada pocketed a whopping $15 million on that one day. Had the action been 'split' on 11/10 offers, $90 million should only yield about $4.5 million. Nevada made more than three times that!


Of course, the Super Bowl isn't always a printing press. Oddsmakers badly misjudged public sentiment in the 2008 game featuring New England and the NY Giants. Nevada actually lost $2.5 million that day on a handle over $90 million. Sportsbooks sure wish they had split the action that day!


What's going on?


Several things:


*First, and most importantly, oddsmakers aren't trying to split the action! They're trying to make the public bet at a bad number. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks want both the 11/10 edge AND a point or two going in their favor. Over the course of thousands of football games, or decades of Super Bowls, that's going to pay off over the long haul. Note that Nevada has had only one losing Super Bowl this decade...and has only failed to surpass the 11/10 equivalent twice. It's worth BIG MONEY to make the public bet at bad numbers.


*Secondly, there are many props that get a lot of action that don't pay at true odds. For example, if you want to bet on which player scores the first touchdown...you're a longshot to win. Any single player has the odds against them. Sportsbooks don't offer true odds. A few people turn out to be right, everyone else is wrong. Big profit!


*Thirdly, there are some longshot props that squares (the public) love taking shots at even though they're very uncommon. Will there be an overtime? Will there be a safety? To date, this has been free money for sportsbooks because there's NEVER been an overtime and there have rarely been safeties.


*Finally, and this might deserve to go higher, sportsbooks have been coming out ahead with the moneyline bets. Favorites have been winning more than losing this decade...and squares like taking moneyline shots on the dog as a general rule. This year, there became a sharp bandwagon for taking Indy on the moneyline in the -190 to -200 range. There were reportedly at least two very large bets on Indy to win straight up (meaning in the million dollar rage or more). So, even though the dog actually won this year, sharp action went the wrong way and padded Nevada's bottom line. Maybe sportsbooks have been dodging some bullets here. Or, maybe some sharps aren't as smart as they think they are when it comes to Super Bowls!


This is the last I'll be talking about football until the Fall. I wanted to use this Super Bowl data to remind you of a very key factor that should strongly influence your basketball handicapping over the next several weeks. Sportsbooks AREN'T trying to split the action. They're trying to make YOU bet at a BAD number!


*The public loves betting on the big name programs. They pay a tax for that right. Sharps go the other way, and take those free points. I want you thinking like a sharp and betting like a sharp. You should be looking to go against public teams as well.


*The public loves betting TV games. They don't have time to study the full board. They want something to root for while eating a bag of potato chips and drinking a coke. Lines are stacked more against the public in TV games as a result. You should be looking to exploit that.


*The public loves betting on 'hot' teams who are making a climb up the rankings. As you know, what goes up must come down. It's very hard to stay hot for long in this sport. Don't chase against a hot team. But, once they cool off, you'll probably make some money fading them the next few times they take the court.


*The public is very slow to realize when a team has just lost it. They'll keep saying to themselves 'There's no way this team will keep losing.' That's a dream scenario for a sharp bettor. Going against the public has you fading a slumping team that's overpriced. How great is that?! North Carolina has had a very bad run. Texas has lost five of its last seven games straight up, and was barely competitive this past Monday vs. Kansas. There's a place for the 'bounce back' theory if a true power is coming off a rare bad night. When a false power starts stringing together bad nights, you want to go the other way.


*Oh, I can't leave this out. The public loves betting MARCH MADNESS! It's basically a Super Bowl that lasts a month! You should be gearing up NOW to take advantage of this great annual opportunity. Football is over. MARCH MADNESS is the next big thing on the calendar. It's just a little over a month away in fact. If you haven't been involved with the baskets already, start studying the teams...get acquainted with all the new teams in the rankings. Boy is this year going to be interesting with so many big name programs possibly missing the tournament! Most importantly, start BUILDING YOUR BANKROLL so you can take full value of the opportunities that arise.

DIRECT FROM NEVADA

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
MISTAKES ODDSMAKERS AND SHARPS MAKE

IN COLLEGE HOOPS
I've heard today's topic discussed a few times in recent days, both from oddsmakers and sharps. I have to say I disagree with the conventional approach here. I think it's one of the biggest edges I have as a handicapper in the second half of the college season.
There's a rule of thumb amongst many that says you don't change your power ratings once everyone has played a lot of games. You've had enough time to evaluate the teams. You know who can play and who can't. You know which teams are heading to the tournaments and who's just playing out the string. If a team is a '58' in your numbers, keep them at '58.' If they're a '73,' keep them at '73.' What you see is what you get once you've reached mid February.
In the big picture, this is probably sound advice. Squares tend to overreact to what happened in the most recent game. They throw out everything that happened the prior 20 games and bet based on what they just saw on television. Villanova lost to Georgetown, they'll probably lose to West Virginia (oops). Georgetown beat Duke, they'll crush South Florida (oops). Handicappers who kept their power ratings stable had more realistic expectations right after a peak or valley performance.
That being said, a lot of teams DO change their stripes late in the season. You can make a lot of money recognizing when that's happened and betting accordingly. Oddsmakers WON'T be making line adjustments because they believe you're not supposed to make late season adjustments to power ratings. Sharps WON'T make adjustments because they're almost as conservative in this regard. That means the opening lines (which are wrong for these stripe-changers) will be off, and they won't be bet to the right place because the sharps are standing pat.
You find the teams who are making moves in one direction or the other, and you can ride those discoveries for as many as three of four winners. Maybe more.
What causes changes in direction? Here are some of the usual suspects?
GETTING BETTER:
*Young teams who are starting to get on the same page about how to run the offense and rotate on defense. Teams who have freshmen playing key roles often play much better over the last month than they did in non-conference action and the first time through league play.
*Injured teams who finally get healthy. It's very easy in the colleges to lose track of this because there are so many teams. If the 6th place team in the Mountain West, or the 9th place team in the Atlantic 10 gets healthy, who's going to notice? Hopefully YOU!
*Deep teams can create the illusion of getting better just because they're not getting tired! Many college teams start to wear down at this stage of the season. Teams with deep rotations have less fatigue, and are capable of maintaining excellent play.
*Teams finding confidence. There are usually a few teams each season who suddenly start to believe in themselves. They win a big game or two, and suddenly you've got a 500-pound gorilla on your hands. Everyone's asking 'What got into those guys?' Confidence got into them! This is easier to see if you're watching a lot of games on TV. Sometimes it's a body language thing. Swagger. You'll really see this in the conference tournaments…where suddenly the 5th seed is just as good as the teams at the top.
GETTING WORSE:
*Teams with short benches are VERY prone to lose a few steps late in the season. They get tired. And, they know they have to save some energy for the March tournaments. I've been known to dock shorthanded teams 2-3 points in the Power Ratings late in the season (especially on the road). I'm always amazed at how few handicappers pay attention to fatigue in this sport. Teams who give most of their minutes to the starting five are prone to pointspread slumps just about right now on the calendar.
*Teams who tune out their head coach will just fall off the map in late February. This is another phenomenon that's easier to catch with your own eyes. Though, sometimes the final scores are so bad it's impossible to miss. Players stop drinking the kool-aid and start playing selfishly on offense. That never works at this level. Defenses are more intense now than ever before. Try beating good defenses with selfish play! Free money if you can find these squads.
*Nagging injuries start to take their toll at this point in the season. I mentioned earlier that injured teams getting healthy are great investments. Conversely, teams who had been healthy all year who start dealing with injury time will get a few points worse. Everyone (including oddsmakers) will keep waiting for the 'bounce back' instead of properly adjusting for a new lower level of achievement. Read those injury reports!
*Teams high up in the rankings often lose a step in late February just because they're looking ahead to March Madness. It's amazing to see, but it happens ever year. Even without injuries, or fatigue, or disagreements with the head coach, superpowers will suddenly play down to the level of their competition about two times in three. Powerhouses favored by 15-20 points will coast to 10-point wins. Medium home favorites will be battling just to win straight up. Stick them on the road as shorter favorites, and they're ripe for an upset. I don't want to start listing recent upsets because it would take all day. You're going to see a lot more of that. Some of the best teams in your power ratings will get about 2-3 points worse before the tournaments, then go back to normal once it's time to get serious.

very good information...thanks ACE