Most important stat in NFL Playoff Football...Since 1970...

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There are all kinds of stats cappers look at when handicapping big games llike the two this weekend.

There is one stat that if you can figure out which team will win this particular stat it would pretty much make handicapping a NFL playoff game pretty simple.

Interceptions given up during the game. The following chart has the straight up record of teams that yielded the corresponding number in interceptions:

• 0 INT -- 191-51 (.789)
• 1 INT -- 144-119 (.548)
• 2 INT -- 54-119 (.312)
• 3 INT -- 17-78 (.179)
• 4+ INT -- 1-41 (.024)

Example over the years since 1970 teams that participated in playoffs games who had no INTs against them in any particulat game are 191-51 and teams yielding 4 or more INTs are 1-41 during a particular game during that time spand...

From Kerry J. Browne of Sports Illustrated.com

The Chargers provided a perfect case study in the importance of each and every pick: the first killed a critical second-half drive as they were clinging to a 7-3 lead over the gritty Jets. But they still had a good shot to win. The second INT not only killed their very next drive, but also reduced their chances of victory while handing the Jets a short field at the San Diego 16. Four plays later, Mark Sanchez (who threw just one pick Sunday) tossed a pass to Dustin Keller for a two-yard TD and a 10-7 advantage. The Jets never looked back.



wil.
 

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Bogus writing by the SI guy. I hate when people simply look at an INT but don't look at the situation. The first INT was on a 3rd and 8 play. Revis only ran it back to the 22. They would have punted anyways. That INT was almost the same as an incomplete pass.

I am not saying INT's for the most part are not huge as stats prove that, but the point he made there is bogus.
 
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Bogus writing by the SI guy. I hate when people simply look at an INT but don't look at the situation. The first INT was on a 3rd and 8 play. Revis only ran it back to the 22. They would have punted anyways. That INT was almost the same as an incomplete pass.

I am not saying INT's for the most part are not huge as stats prove that, but the point he made there is bogus.


Yeah But, That's a Pretty Large Example #%()
 

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Bogus writing by the SI guy. I hate when people simply look at an INT but don't look at the situation. The first INT was on a 3rd and 8 play. Revis only ran it back to the 22. They would have punted anyways. That INT was almost the same as an incomplete pass.

I am not saying INT's for the most part are not huge as stats prove that, but the point he made there is bogus.
Kinda hard to argue the numbers.
 

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Guys like I said the stats are impossible to argue, but the given example he used is a bogus one (the SI writer)
 

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There are only three things that can happen with the forward pass, and two of them are bad.
 

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Now try to figure out who's going to throw more picks in a given game and you're gold.
 

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i could care less the situation as long as the numbers hold up. i could care less if they're counting a hail mary that gets picked off in the end zone right before the half.

i wonder how this stat works in the regular season:modemman:
 

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terps1313

You have a good point in regards to a single interception out of the thousands of picks that have been thrown over the last 50 years during NFL Playoff games.

The point of the article is the results of the big picture - meaning every INT thrown in playoff competition since 1970 within it's own side of any given game during 50 years of NFL Playoffs games has had an equal effect of every game included in the wins and losses reflected in the chart.

Regardless of the circumstances of any given INT they are all equal for the purpose of determining the won/loss record of teams that throw 0,1,2,3 or 4 or more INTs in a single playoff game.

Naturally no one can be sure before a playoff game kickoff how many INTs either side will yield but the information derived from the chart can be used to help predict a result of a single game simply based on how many INTs the starting QB averages per game over the course of the current season or his entire career to gain a slight edge as to which side is more likely to throw more picks in the upcoming playoff game.

Granted all of this speculation is a bit of a crap shoot and IMO something to be used only along with other handicapping criteria to select a preferred side of the game being capped.

Lets look at the Vikes vs Saints game, while Brett Farve had an exceptional (for hm) INT per pass attempt rate this year but he remains a potential reckless QB when it comes to taking chances with the ball over the course of his career. Add the presence of Darren Sharper (knows Farve's game as well as any defender in the game) to the Saints secondary and I personally would make The Saints slight favorites to win the INT yielded statistical portion of the game, which in turn gives them a higher chance of winning the game on the field.

Again, I would only recommend that an astute capper use the trend as a small lean to add to other reasons to play a particular side.

Comparing Brees and Farve over their careers:

Farve had 317 INTs out of 6088 attempted passes or one pick every 20 pass attempts.

Brees has had 110 picks out of 2697 pass attempts or one pick around every 25 attempts.

Other factors such as game plans come into play when trying to predict which QB will get picked the most. However in the end the result is IMHO about a 90% a crap shoot when predicting the results to a single game.


wil.
 

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teams who win the turnover battle, generally win the game.
this is caused , at least in part, by the team playing from behind employing a higher risk offense in an effort to catch up.

another deceptive stat erroneously used to handicap the winner of a game is rushing yards. opposite affect to the turnover stat, the team winning the game typically tries to run out the clock. thus giving the likely winner more rushing yards.

its a case of cause and effect, winning the game causes less turnovers and more rushing yards. as opposed too less turnovers and more rushing yards causing a team to win.
 

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fo sho, ints are HUGE in the playoffs, there's so many memorable games where ints were some of the biggest plays of the game.
 

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Lets look at the Vikes vs Saints game, while Brett Farve had an exceptional (for hm) INT per pass attempt rate this year but he remains a potential reckless QB when it comes to taking chances with the ball over the course of his career. Add the presence of Darren Sharper (knows Farve's game as well as any defender in the game) to the Saints secondary and I personally would make The Saints slight favorites to win the INT yielded statistical portion of the game, which in turn gives them a higher chance of winning the game on the field.

Again, I would only recommend that an astute capper use the trend as a small lean to add to other reasons to play a particular side.

Comparing Brees and Farve over their careers:

Farve had 317 INTs out of 6088 attempted passes or one pick every 20 pass attempts.

Brees has had 110 picks out of 2697 pass attempts or one pick around every 25 attempts.

Other factors such as game plans come into play when trying to predict which QB will get picked the most. However in the end the result is IMHO about a 90% a crap shoot when predicting the results to a single game.


wil.

We should be looking at Favre and Brees for this season.
And why stop at Interceptions? Fumbles are turnovers and momentum killers as well.
Brees was picked off 11 times in 514 attempts.
Favre was picked off 7 times in 531 attempts.
Brees fumbled 9 times losing 6 of those fumbles.
Favre fumbled 2 times losing both of those fumbles.
Brees had a total of 17 turnovers.
Favre had a total of 9 turnovers.
H'm, so Brees is almost twice as likely as Favre to commit a turnover this season.
Both QB's were spotless in their divisional round playoff game.
(<)<
 

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We should be looking at Favre and Brees for this season.
And why stop at Interceptions? Fumbles are turnovers and momentum killers as well.
Brees was picked off 11 times in 514 attempts.
Favre was picked off 7 times in 531 attempts.
Brees fumbled 9 times losing 6 of those fumbles.
Favre fumbled 2 times losing both of those fumbles.
Brees had a total of 17 turnovers.
Favre had a total of 9 turnovers.
H'm, so Brees is almost twice as likely as Favre to commit a turnover this season.
Both QB's were spotless in their divisional round playoff game.
(<)<
i like this guy.!!@)
 

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gskiman

Go ahead - knock yourself out. The original topic of this thread is Interceptions and their effect on playoff games since 1970. Feel free to start a new thread about a new topic including the categories you mentioned.

Hopefully you can demonstrate the impact of your combination of INTS and Fumbles throughout the 2009 postseason: (the team that's thrown fewer INTs is 8-0 in the playoffs, not sure about your total turnover category). The chart in my post demonstrates the impact of Interceptions ONLY throughout the last 50 years of playoff history.

You can go back and create a similar chart by breaking down all the boxscores since 1970 to come up with a "Tota # of turnovers that season by the starting QB of each team" chart.

I will help you out, try the NFL Record and Fact Book as a starting point to make your chart, it should contain the thousand of so necessary box scores.


BOL. wilheim



wilheim,
 

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