Someone lend me a Halo - I need it to root home my team in The NFC Championship Game..

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I took a pretty good look at The NFC Title Game and no matter how you slice IMHO you have to like The Saints to make it to their first ever Super Bowl..

Play on Saints -3.5 at the best juice you can find. The -3.5 is widely available and naturally if for some reason the game drops to
Saints, minus 3 with reasonable juice attached that is all the better however unlikely a line change is at this point.

I am playing this game for 3 units..


Why do I like the Saints at least one or two of you must be wondering. Well I will tell you hopefully without putting you to sleep at the same time.

1. Home Field advantage for The Saints is huge. Talent wise these teams are very close but the advantage that Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints will enjoy playing in The Super-dome is more than enough in itself to make up for the 3.5 point spread. In case anyone cares: Brett Favre is 0-3 in road playoff games since leading Green Bay to an NFC Championship win at San Francisco during the 1997 season.


2. Coaching: HC and OC Sean Peyton and DC Gregg Williams (along with their staffs) are arguably the best combo of coordinators in the NFL.
I know that statement is subjective and Vikings backers will want to back their guys of HC Brad Childress (an Andy Reid disciple), DC Leslie Frazier and OC Darell Bevel are superior or at least equal. I disagree and will leave it at that. This is my write up and my many years of capping NFL football tells me the Saints coaching is a little better.

3. The Saints offense led by Drew Brees - is there a better QB in football right now? You can't say Farve is better outside of The Metrodome.
Plus all of the AFC QBs are moot as far as this game goes. Reggie Bush looks to be in the best shape of his life and is a serious threat every time he touches the ball. The Saint receivers are all a DB's bad dream: Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore are all capable of burning the main weakness on Minnesota's defense their DBs (their safeties especially) repeatedly. Tight end Jeremy Shockey is one of the better receivers at his position (assuming he is healthy). Throw in a better than decent Saints running game of Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush to go with the best Offensive Line in The NFC (sorry Dallas) and The Vikes' Dee definitely has their hands full.

4. Protect Drew Brees - critical for The Saints but who better than an offensive line full of Pro Bowlers and a head coach who is famous for his offensive sets designed ultimately to protect his franchise player Brees. Jared Allen will have to deal with huge LT Jermon Bushrod - that is a pick-em especially if Bushrod gets a little help from a back or TE. The real strength of the Saints team is their Offensive line. Let the O line
give Brees some time (unlike what Tony Romo got last week) and it's kitty bar the door as he will pick the Viking secondary apart with quick releases that allow him to remain sack free.

The Saints look to break on top and take Adrian Peterson out of the game, something they are very capable of doing in the Super dome. BTW Dome teams at home are 5-0 in the playoffs so far this year..

5. Darren Sharper - The X factor in the Saints defensive backfield. Sharper was let go by The Vikes after last season - you know the rest - he wants revenge.. Plus he practiced against Farve for 8 years in Green Bay and knows his moves better than anyone. Sharper is a spectacular play-maker and at sometime during the game will make his presence felt in a big way.

6. The Saints on defense MUST contain the run, not stop it stone cold dead as that is basically impossible but contain it so that their excellent secondary (most of you know the names) can put the clamps on Brett's excellent corps of receivers, especially Sidney Rice.

7. The Vikes have somehow got to contain Drew Brees the hardest QB to sack in football. More power to em if they can manage it.

8. Minnesota's front four, led by Jared Allen and tackle Kevin Williams must be able to apply pressure alone on Brees as he will pick apart any Viking blitz packages with his quick release and elusive feet. The Vikes want to rush four and drop seven but if the four don't get there it's a game changer.

9. Special teams especially the kick returners Percy Harvin and Reggie Bush could swing the game for either side. Word is Harvin is banged up but it is hard to believe he will sit out such a big game.

Reggie Bush is 100% plus and raren to go.

Substantial edge to PK Ryan Longwell of Minnesota over The Saints unproven Garrett Hartley. If it comes down to a single field goal I am dead anyway.

10. The City of New Orleans is ready for this. I know it may sound corny but with nearly 60 years of wearing paper bags and rooting for losing teams behind them the crowd Sunday night will be like nothing anyone has ever heard at a football game. Let's call them the 12th man for one game.

I could write about individual match-ups and all that stuff but you can find it all on websites like ESPN.com, CBS Sportsline.com etc. So I am going to skip it. Trust me when I say I have looked at all the individual match-ups and like I said both teams are very talented but only one is playing in their own house..


Who Dat Goin to Beat Dem Saints ?


BOL. to all, wil..:toast:

PS. To Vikings fans, I know you probably are not happy to see anyone predict a Saints win but in this case it is not about being a fan of either team, it's about winning a bet plain and simple. So please do not take it personal. I am not a fan one way or another of either team when there is no cash at stake...
 

powdered milkman
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i cant root for this one wil.......but if your saints happen to blow out minny......the finances will overcome my sadness.......good luck!
 

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St

Anything can happen, I just hope the final is not a Saints win but a Vikes cover. That would be the worst of both worlds. If I lose I hope it is on the field outright..


BOL this weekend, wil..
 

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Like your side Willy..........

Here's to hoping you bring home yet another winner for RX posters......

:toast:
 

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I was rooting for the Saints anyways. Just in love with their explosive play make ability, but now I know Wil (an explosive play maker himself) is on them. Makes it even better.

Kind of thinking of getting down on them. Going to be fun to watch, bet or not though. I am siked for these 2 confrence champ games.
 

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I just can't see the Saints losing. Minny has been mediocre at best on the road all year.
 

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Viejo dinosaur

I will lay 3.5 for dinner the next time I am in Costa Rica...we have a bet? <!-- / message -->

If you lay 3-5 that means you have the favorite Saints -3.5 for a dinner putting me on the other side of my bet at +3.5 on the Vikes.

Sure if that is what you want - it will be like a hedge for me..(Unless you meant to take +3.5 - let me know)...


Either way you want it you got a bet....I hope you win if it's the favorite -3.5 you want..


Best, wil..
 
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If you lay 3-5 that means you have the favorite Saints -3.5 for a dinner putting me on the other side of my bet at +3.5 on the Vikes.

Sure if that is what you want - it will be like a hedge for me..(Unless you meant to take +3.5 - let me know)...


Either way you want it you got a bet....I hope you win if it's the favorite -3.5 you want..


Best, wil..

WOW...I gotta get some sleep...I want the Vikings....Vikings+3.5..
Feel like I am in gambling 101 again:toast:
 

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Viejo dinosaur

No sweat - no one is perfect. You have The Vikes +3.5 for dinner when you return to CR.. I owe you to many dinners as it is..

When you go out to a nice restaurant with Viejo Dinosaur guys it is not that easy to get your hands on the check..I know from experience..


May the best team win...VD has Minny +3.5 and wilheim The Saints -3.5 - at stake is dinner for at least 4 at an eatery to be determined..



BOL.. wil..
:toast:
 

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No sweat - no one is perfect. You have The Vikes +3.5 for dinner when you return to CR.. I owe you to many dinners as it is..

When you go out to a nice restaurant with Viejo Dinosaur guys it is not that easy to get your hands on the check..I know from experience..


May the best team win...VD has Minny +3.5 and wilheim The Saints -3.5 - at stake is dinner for at least 4 at an eatery to be determined..



BOL.. wil..:toast:


Whew, this is the first information that I have recieved today(just woke up).

This is a good sign hopefully for the remainder of the day.

:toast::toast:


By the way, The Saints line continues to slowly move downward..........I've been dollar cost averaging my position on the Saints since WIL started this thread.........currently in at -3.5 -102.9

When will the move shift the other way?
 

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From Nick B. in Vegas


MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line here opened New Orleans -4½, and has been bet down to -3½. It's interesting that we didn't see a move all the way down to a field goal. If you liked Minnesota, why would you stop betting at +3½? I think what's happened here is that sportsbooks know they'll get flooded with money on New Orleans -3 if they drop any further. There will be middle shooters from the early position-takers. And, the public tends to like cheap home favorites in big TV games. Should the public break form and bet Brett Favre as an underdog, this line will definitely drop further. If they back the Saints, that would set up a tug-of-war between squares (the public) on the cheap home favorite, and sharps on the quality road underdog getting more than a field goal.

The total has dropped from 54 down to 52½ You know old school guys like taking the Unders at high lights. Given last week's scores, there's an assumption that defense and running the clock are going to make it tough to fly by this number. We've only had one wild and crazy shootout so far (Arizona/Green Bay). The media was suggesting before the playoffs began that we'd be seeing mostly that type of game. Instead, it's mostly been defense and ball control. You'd think the media would hire some sharps to teach them a little about playoff football!

Maybe we'll find out that there's another high roller head fake in play, and that big money will come over the top on New Orleans at -3. For now, I think the dog and Under are probably the sharp plays. That's a safe assessment about most any betting game in all of sports. <!-- / message -->
 

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from nick b. In vegas


minnesota at new orleans: the line here opened new orleans -4½, and has been bet down to -3½. It's interesting that we didn't see a move all the way down to a field goal. If you liked minnesota, why would you stop betting at +3½? I think what's happened here is that sportsbooks know they'll get flooded with money on new orleans -3 if they drop any further. There will be middle shooters from the early position-takers. And, the public tends to like cheap home favorites in big tv games. Should the public break form and bet brett favre as an underdog, this line will definitely drop further. If they back the saints, that would set up a tug-of-war between squares (the public) on the cheap home favorite, and sharps on the quality road underdog getting more than a field goal.

The total has dropped from 54 down to 52½ you know old school guys like taking the unders at high lights. Given last week's scores, there's an assumption that defense and running the clock are going to make it tough to fly by this number. We've only had one wild and crazy shootout so far (arizona/green bay). The media was suggesting before the playoffs began that we'd be seeing mostly that type of game. Instead, it's mostly been defense and ball control. You'd think the media would hire some sharps to teach them a little about playoff football!

Maybe we'll find out that there's another high roller head fake in play, and that big money will come over the top on new orleans at -3. For now, i think the dog and under are probably the sharp plays. That's a safe assessment about most any betting game in all of sports. <!-- / message -->



pinny moneyline


moneylines
01/17 20:17 +190 / -210
01/17 20:22 +196 / -222
01/17 20:27 +181 / -201
01/17 21:02 +188 / -208
01/17 21:52 +185 / -205
01/18 06:44 +181 / -201
01/18 11:02 +180 / -200
01/18 11:17 +177 / -195
01/18 13:37 +167 / -185
01/19 13:26 +162 / -180
01/20 15:27 +171 / -189
01/21 10:41 +173 / -191
01/21 17:16 +177 / -195
01/21 19:15 +168 / -186
01/22 18:44 +173 / -191
01/23 15:50 +177 / -195
01/23 17:30 +172 / -190
01/23 19:36 +167 / -185
01/23 20:30 +172 / -190
01/23 23:55 +170 / -188
01/24 00:50 +175 / -193
01/24 08:00 +173 / -191
 

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Great Analysis~~~~~~

Can't send you a Halo but can send you......... Hilo in the 4th

@ Meadowlands :toast:

<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>[SIZE=-1]5 [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Hilo[/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Daniel Dube [/SIZE]</TD><TD>[SIZE=-1]Karen Williams [/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]150[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]5[/SIZE]</TD><TD align=right>[SIZE=-1]7/2[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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My 2 cents FWIW....

What you have to remember is that it takes a conviction in your handicapping ability to lay anything over -3 on The Saints as four can be considered a live number and to a lessor extent 4.5 (takes you off a push if you like the dog) but 5 and 5.5 are dead numbers. Essentially +3.5 is not that much weaker of a number as +5.5 for dog bettors.

There is a lot of automatic non handicapped cash already bet on the Vikings at +3.5 - +4 and +4.5 all waiting for a chance to lay -3 -110 or less juice on New Orleans should it become available.

These bettors are sharp in their own right by not being concerned about the X's and O's that need to be examined in order to handicap the game but instead just playing the numbers game looking to catch a middle or even a side should New Orleans win by 3 which could happen if The Saints allow the Vikes to hang around into the second half of the 4th quarter.

Regarding the total - the movement down is simply a situation where the opener 54.5 being just to high causing smart early money to play the under. Another factor is the status of dynamic Viking kick returner Percy Harvin who has missed a lot of practice this week due to migraine headaches.

Harvin made the trip to New Orleans with the rest of the team but his status will remain uncertain until game time tonight. I predict he will try to play unless he is really suffering from a severe migraine headache.

When definite news of Harvin's playing status is released the total will be mildly effected one way or another but most likely Brad Childress will not make any official announcement until the last minute leaving little time for bettors to make wagers based solely on Harvin's playing status. Plus migraines are tricky as one could develop during the game causing Childress to sit Harvin after announcing earlier that he would play.

Bottom line is money movement around the key number of three should not be considered as important as the same movement around the number of say 8 or 9 for example. The Colts getting bet from -7 to in spots -9 indicates which way the public is going which is lay the heavy chalk on the outside of New York well thought of Colts. You can bet sharps are hoping to see even more square cash come in on Indy on the off chance they can take some plus 10 for all they can get, even though any book that hangs a 10 will get bombarded pretty hard with Jets money they will be forced back to 9.5 or 9 in a matter of minutes.

Personally I doubt even the squarest of shops will hang a 10 -110 today but one never knows how crazy square money can be.

As a Saints backer I am not concerned about -3.5's juice fluctuations. What would concern me is a book like Pinny going to -3 -103 or -104 and staying there until kickoff. That would have to tell me something, mainly even sharp money won't lay -3 on The Saints. However like the plus 10 on Indy I doubt we will see -3 on The Saints for any substantial period of time at an out that takes good sized bites.

Both of these game have been scrutinized much more than any routine regular season games are making line movement at this point more a case of money adjustments than opinions being expressed by substantial wagers on one side or the other. In other words the best handicappers (I don't mean occasional punters like myself) have already made their principle move on either game leaving the rest of the betting to squares and middlers.


wil.
 
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sorry, i need the saints to lose so travis jones can resign get started recruiting for the vols
 

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