aussie open for jan 26th ---na li +175 upset over venus

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seer
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well it's been good so far. tonight i am going for some value, and one dog i like. that is venus loses tonight. i am working on the fed match but will give u some stats for now

na li has had a much tougher road to get to where she is than venus has.
na li beat venus in the summer olympics 7-5/7-5 in their only h2h.
i don't know where the bets are but i would think there would be sentiment for an all williams matchup. if there was a lookahead i am pretty sure venus knows she can't beat her sister and that too might play against her as she is playing this match.
-so unknown vs household name
-tougher draw over venus and
-she won their only h2h
what is there not to like with a +175 dog?

i also took na li 2-1 sets +500
and hedged out on venus 2-1 +250
also took gms over 21'

next up today is serena vs azarenka
az gives serena some matchup troubles. don't think az is menatally tough enough to win this, in fact she is her own worst enemy firing easy winners into the net. h2h is certainly not dominating in fact az beat serena b4
2-1 serena sets +250
2-1 az for very small +650
gms 20' over

davy vs fed
davy has won the last 2 matches over fed on hardcourt. in fact davy has beaten 7 consecutive top 10 ranked players.
i am still leaning davydenko as a play for sure this goes 4 sets imo.
this game starts at 7pm pst so will have something by then
 

seer
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5:50 pst time as i write this game goes at 7pm pst

most ppl that don't follow tennis seem to think that roger federer is a tennis god. i beg to differ. when roger was winning just about everything - who the hell was his competition? after sampras and aggassi were gone the answer is absolutely nobody.
a few of roger's final wins in the aussie open were against lleyton hewitt who i believe has never beaten roger. fernando verdasco, marcos baghdatis. there was a tennis lull for a long time. if nadal, djokovic etc were playing in those earlier days i will guarantee u roger would not have won as many as he did.
even the us open final. little known juan del potro took out the so called swiss honcho.
davydenko won the tennis masters just recently. that is- only the top seeds were invited to this tourney, and davydenko took them all out.
this line might be perceived as low for roger. imo it is too high, and i know the dog is live here. roger will not win in straight sets to me that is good bet in itself.
don't get me wrong roger is a great player. today you will see another great player who is at the top of his game and i am going for that 'upset'

davydenko to win +264

games davydenko +4' -132 games

games over 39' -138

first set davy +162

roger win 3-0 no -223

roger win 3-1 +275 hedge
roger win 3-2 +500 hedge
davy win 3-1 +700
davy win 3-2 +750

be back for degenerates tennis when the black superman tsonga plays djokovic
 

seer
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Li takes the second set. Your 2-1 sets bet is in the bag, nice job seer

thank goodness! i turned off my live stream - she was playing like absolute garbage. now it is a game. i will take the 3 set after that debacle any day
 

seer
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thanks for the encouragement.
i have read some other posts at other forums on this game. some contend the way he took out hewitt - that now roger is a monster. i say bunk. you really cap that way? do u cap nfl that way? team a beats team b by 1 pt. team c beats team b by 50pts
therefore, team c will beat team a by 49 pts. capping like that is garbage and you know that for yourself. roger cleans hewitt's clock all the time!!! so who cares. davy will play his heart out for you if you back him. btw this is the guy that betfair wanted in jail for throwing a match. davy has imo ditched minor events in the past, but when he plays the big boys there isn't many that will play with sweat, blood and tears as davydenko
 

seer
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fed / davy match delayed to 8:30pm cuz of this game. can't believe she is fighting back to potentially tie this thing up. just tried +163 in game. at one point she was about +2200
 

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yeah... surprizes me also... fedex not so big fav imo... maybe in general public he is, but late matches between those two showed that he's no better than davydenko at this moment... in worst case even match... but I think the russian knows how to handle him... won in doha, won the masters... fedex still has the name, but does he have the game? will see tonight...

bol!
 

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fed / davy match delayed to 8:30pm cuz of this game. can't believe she is fighting back to potentially tie this thing up. just tried +163 in game. at one point she was about +2200

yeah... great capping again... I like how you got the balls to take big dogs... and they are doing good so far... even if she doesn't win, she gave a good battle and won you that over and 2-1 bet... (but I hope she wins)

bol!:103631605
 

seer
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i know davy will for sure. that is why i have to take adv of this. damn it she had venus on the ropes 'and now she lets her off the hook'- dennis green quote lol
 

seer
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yeah... great capping again... I like how you got the balls to take big dogs... and they are doing good so far... even if she doesn't win, she gave a good battle and won you that over and 2-1 bet... (but I hope she wins)

bol!:103631605

i will have my plus money with either side winning 2-1. and i have my over on games as well. so i am happy regardless of the outcome. nice start at 5-5 with an early 15-0 lead oops make it 30-0
 

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great hit with na li!

let's hope davy can also break some fav ass today!
lean towards over 39 games as best lookin bet... this wil not be over in 3 sets...

bol!
 

seer
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great hit with na li!

let's hope davy can also break some fav ass today!
lean towards over 39 games as best lookin bet... this wil not be over in 3 sets...

bol!

yeah that is a good one. if u still like fed at least take him 3-1 and 3-2 / 3-0 i really really doubt
 

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