http://web.sny.tv/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100204&content_id=8019758&oid=36019&vkey=10
02/04/2010 11:05 AM ET
How do Sox, Yankees stack up in 2010?
Additions of Vazquez, Lackey make for close race
By Michael Salfino <!-- Facebook --><!-- Print --><!-- Email -->
<TABLE id=newsImage cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=302 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=caption>Can the Red Sox survive the offensive dropoff from Jason Bay to Mike Cameron? (AP)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The oddsmakers have the Yankees at 11/4 to win the World Series, while the Red Sox are 7-to-1. But the Red Sox are getting props everywhere for their offseason. Why aren't they opening at least as co-favorites with the Yankees?
Let's first review how much ground Boston had to make up. The BoSox finished last year at 95-67, but their expected win total using Bill James' Pythagorean formula was 93. The Yankees won 103 games but their Pythagorean total was just 95.
Boston added starter John Lackey, centerfielder Mike Cameron (defensively challenged Jacoby Ellsbury moves to left), shortstop Marco Scutaro, third baseman Adrian Beltre, reserve outfielder Jeremy Hermida, utility player Bill Hall, middle infielder Tug Hulett and pitcher Boof Bonser. They lost leftfielder Jason Bay, reserve outfielder Rocco Baldelli and first baseman Casey Kotchman.
The Yankees added starter Javier Vazquez, outfielder Curtis Granderson, designated hitter Nick Johnson, outfielder Randy Winn and reliever Boone Logan. Gone are leftfielder Johnny Damon, centerfielder Melky Cabrera, designated hitter Hideki Matsui, backup catcher Jose Molina, starter Ian Kennedy and Minor League outfielder Austin Jackson.
At first glance, the Red Sox seem much better overall. The Yankees appear to be worse offensively and better defensively, mostly due to the addition of Vazquez. But let's examine more closely, starting with Boston.
The Red Sox made defense a priority. Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts, who grade every play, had Scutaro as the fifth-best defensive shortstop in baseball. Beltre was their fifth-best defensive third baseman. Cameron, despite his good reputation, did not chart in the top 10 for them, but note that in pure range factor, he was seventh-best among regular center fielders last year. Ellsbury was 20th.
The Red Sox also upgraded their defense by inserting Lackey into their rotation. I'm bullish on Lackey in 2010 despite the elbow troubles that bothered him early in 2009, mostly because his average fastball velocity last year (91.6 mph) was a career best.
Boston's offense has taken a hit, though. Cameron for Bay is a terrible deficit. At age 37, Cameron could collapse from his sub-.800 OPS three-year-average to a mark closer to .700. Scutaro is a .265 career hitter coming off a .282 season. I give him props for having more walks (90) than strikeouts (75) and thus feel he earned that average last year. But he's 34, so expect a regression toward his career rates (.721 OPS) and subtract from his defensive efficiency, too.
Jeremy Hermida is fully post-hype now (he was once arguably the top hitting prospect in baseball). I see lots of upside here relative to the small price the Sox paid to roster him. They're at least covered if J.D. Drew gets hurt for an extended period of time or if Cameron just craters, one of which has about a 70 percent chance of happening.
The Yankees lose hitters you could count on in a big spot in Damon and Matsui. Nick Johnson is a professional hitter when healthy, but he slugged just .405 last year, lower than his .426 on-base percentage. Given his injury history and the apparent impact it's had in sapping his power, he a very risky replacement for Matsui. Johnson is an unconventional table setter rather than a run producer when healthy.
Granderson replaces Damon and has tremendous power upside in Yankee Stadium, where Damon hit 17 of his 24 homers last year. Granderson hit 20 homers on the road, so it's not crazy to expect him to hit 40 this year with 30 as the floor. He will drive you crazy with the strikeouts (141 last year, 174 in 2006). Also, he wasn't close to Damon last year on the bases. According to the Bill James Handbook, Damon was plus-18 mostly due to his great stolen base efficiency (12-for-12) while Granderson was just plus-four (he took only 10 bases on hits vs. 20 for Damon).
Winn replaces Cabrera as an extra outfielder, but could be thrust into a bigger role if/when Johnson gets hurt. Winn's decline at the plate last year (he's 36 in June) was alarming, with a .671 OPS and just two homers in 538 at-bats.
Vazquez is the key addition, coming off a dominant season in the National League (238 strikeouts vs. 44 walks). He can be lights out when he's on and, in a testament to New York's depth, opens the year as the Yankees' No. 4 starter. Yes, he spit the bit before in New York, but there are all kinds of sample-size problems in the bad second half way back in 2004.
Figure that the Yankees gain an expected win or two from last year and conservatively assume the baseline is their Pythagorean total (95). So that's 96.5 wins as an over/under. The Red Sox seem much better off but are taking on a lot more risk. Their offense will also be hurt by having to play Victor Martinez at catcher (he hits much better as a first baseman), which also subtracts from their defensive gains elsewhere. Boston at the plate loses most of what Lackey gives them on the mound. So the Red Sox are only plus one or two expected wins, too, and -- using their Pythagorean total from last year -- get only to an expected win total of 94.5. Close, yes, but no cigar. Michael Salfino is a nationally syndicated columnist and regular contributor to SNY.tv.
02/04/2010 11:05 AM ET
How do Sox, Yankees stack up in 2010?
Additions of Vazquez, Lackey make for close race
By Michael Salfino <!-- Facebook --><!-- Print --><!-- Email -->
<TABLE id=newsImage cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=302 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
The oddsmakers have the Yankees at 11/4 to win the World Series, while the Red Sox are 7-to-1. But the Red Sox are getting props everywhere for their offseason. Why aren't they opening at least as co-favorites with the Yankees?
Let's first review how much ground Boston had to make up. The BoSox finished last year at 95-67, but their expected win total using Bill James' Pythagorean formula was 93. The Yankees won 103 games but their Pythagorean total was just 95.
Boston added starter John Lackey, centerfielder Mike Cameron (defensively challenged Jacoby Ellsbury moves to left), shortstop Marco Scutaro, third baseman Adrian Beltre, reserve outfielder Jeremy Hermida, utility player Bill Hall, middle infielder Tug Hulett and pitcher Boof Bonser. They lost leftfielder Jason Bay, reserve outfielder Rocco Baldelli and first baseman Casey Kotchman.
The Yankees added starter Javier Vazquez, outfielder Curtis Granderson, designated hitter Nick Johnson, outfielder Randy Winn and reliever Boone Logan. Gone are leftfielder Johnny Damon, centerfielder Melky Cabrera, designated hitter Hideki Matsui, backup catcher Jose Molina, starter Ian Kennedy and Minor League outfielder Austin Jackson.
At first glance, the Red Sox seem much better overall. The Yankees appear to be worse offensively and better defensively, mostly due to the addition of Vazquez. But let's examine more closely, starting with Boston.
The Red Sox made defense a priority. Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts, who grade every play, had Scutaro as the fifth-best defensive shortstop in baseball. Beltre was their fifth-best defensive third baseman. Cameron, despite his good reputation, did not chart in the top 10 for them, but note that in pure range factor, he was seventh-best among regular center fielders last year. Ellsbury was 20th.
The Red Sox also upgraded their defense by inserting Lackey into their rotation. I'm bullish on Lackey in 2010 despite the elbow troubles that bothered him early in 2009, mostly because his average fastball velocity last year (91.6 mph) was a career best.
Boston's offense has taken a hit, though. Cameron for Bay is a terrible deficit. At age 37, Cameron could collapse from his sub-.800 OPS three-year-average to a mark closer to .700. Scutaro is a .265 career hitter coming off a .282 season. I give him props for having more walks (90) than strikeouts (75) and thus feel he earned that average last year. But he's 34, so expect a regression toward his career rates (.721 OPS) and subtract from his defensive efficiency, too.
Jeremy Hermida is fully post-hype now (he was once arguably the top hitting prospect in baseball). I see lots of upside here relative to the small price the Sox paid to roster him. They're at least covered if J.D. Drew gets hurt for an extended period of time or if Cameron just craters, one of which has about a 70 percent chance of happening.
The Yankees lose hitters you could count on in a big spot in Damon and Matsui. Nick Johnson is a professional hitter when healthy, but he slugged just .405 last year, lower than his .426 on-base percentage. Given his injury history and the apparent impact it's had in sapping his power, he a very risky replacement for Matsui. Johnson is an unconventional table setter rather than a run producer when healthy.
Granderson replaces Damon and has tremendous power upside in Yankee Stadium, where Damon hit 17 of his 24 homers last year. Granderson hit 20 homers on the road, so it's not crazy to expect him to hit 40 this year with 30 as the floor. He will drive you crazy with the strikeouts (141 last year, 174 in 2006). Also, he wasn't close to Damon last year on the bases. According to the Bill James Handbook, Damon was plus-18 mostly due to his great stolen base efficiency (12-for-12) while Granderson was just plus-four (he took only 10 bases on hits vs. 20 for Damon).
Winn replaces Cabrera as an extra outfielder, but could be thrust into a bigger role if/when Johnson gets hurt. Winn's decline at the plate last year (he's 36 in June) was alarming, with a .671 OPS and just two homers in 538 at-bats.
Vazquez is the key addition, coming off a dominant season in the National League (238 strikeouts vs. 44 walks). He can be lights out when he's on and, in a testament to New York's depth, opens the year as the Yankees' No. 4 starter. Yes, he spit the bit before in New York, but there are all kinds of sample-size problems in the bad second half way back in 2004.
Figure that the Yankees gain an expected win or two from last year and conservatively assume the baseline is their Pythagorean total (95). So that's 96.5 wins as an over/under. The Red Sox seem much better off but are taking on a lot more risk. Their offense will also be hurt by having to play Victor Martinez at catcher (he hits much better as a first baseman), which also subtracts from their defensive gains elsewhere. Boston at the plate loses most of what Lackey gives them on the mound. So the Red Sox are only plus one or two expected wins, too, and -- using their Pythagorean total from last year -- get only to an expected win total of 94.5. Close, yes, but no cigar. Michael Salfino is a nationally syndicated columnist and regular contributor to SNY.tv.
