I am inspired by ACE-ACE to try this... he says that when identifying the best bet on the board for the day, doing research, you cannot lose 7 in a row. He's done it for years - identifying the best bet and never losing 7 in a row. I would like to try the same.
Nearly all the bets I place are "sucker bets". These are sides opposite what the public is on. I use a variety of things to determine if I believe a bet is a sucker bet.
The first is the public percentages at SportsInsights. I want to be on the side that isn't getting the majority of the action. If it is, it's thrown out.
The second is to make sure I've identified a game that the public is actually betting on. Usually a TV game or another game in big conferences. North Carolina-Duke will get tons of public action. Jackson State-Mississippi Valley State? Almost no one will bet on that game.
The last and what I believe is the most important factor in betting - who are these books telling you to bet on? If I wanted to bet on the away team, where would I bet that number? If I wanted to bet on the home team, where would I bet that number? Almost all my plays will be scalps between what I believe are sharp books (Matchbook, Pinnacle) and recreational books (SIA, Bodog).
I am going to play with money I can afford to lose. My starting bankroll is small - $3582. I will start in $22/$20 bets, escalating to the 7th leg $1886.86/$1715.32
$22 to win $20
$46.2 to win $42
$97.02 to win $88.2
$203.74 to win $185.22
$427.86 to win $388.96
$898.50 to win $816.82
$1886.86 to win $1715.32
It's not so much about the picks - it's about introducing a different way of capping I don't see too many use on this forum. I will track money here and see if I lose it all or not. The goal is to double the money in a year.
Each leg has a 99.2188% of completing... I want to complete 180 consecutive series. .992188^180 = .24338% so I have a 1-in-4 shot of doing this. This goes against gambling theory - laying +100 on something that has a 25% chance of happening is flat out stupid, which is why books will allow you to chase all you want. This is something I'm doing for fun and to provide my way of handicapping to the forum, rather than posting random threads in different forums.
Nearly all the bets I place are "sucker bets". These are sides opposite what the public is on. I use a variety of things to determine if I believe a bet is a sucker bet.
The first is the public percentages at SportsInsights. I want to be on the side that isn't getting the majority of the action. If it is, it's thrown out.
The second is to make sure I've identified a game that the public is actually betting on. Usually a TV game or another game in big conferences. North Carolina-Duke will get tons of public action. Jackson State-Mississippi Valley State? Almost no one will bet on that game.
The last and what I believe is the most important factor in betting - who are these books telling you to bet on? If I wanted to bet on the away team, where would I bet that number? If I wanted to bet on the home team, where would I bet that number? Almost all my plays will be scalps between what I believe are sharp books (Matchbook, Pinnacle) and recreational books (SIA, Bodog).
I am going to play with money I can afford to lose. My starting bankroll is small - $3582. I will start in $22/$20 bets, escalating to the 7th leg $1886.86/$1715.32
$22 to win $20
$46.2 to win $42
$97.02 to win $88.2
$203.74 to win $185.22
$427.86 to win $388.96
$898.50 to win $816.82
$1886.86 to win $1715.32
It's not so much about the picks - it's about introducing a different way of capping I don't see too many use on this forum. I will track money here and see if I lose it all or not. The goal is to double the money in a year.
Each leg has a 99.2188% of completing... I want to complete 180 consecutive series. .992188^180 = .24338% so I have a 1-in-4 shot of doing this. This goes against gambling theory - laying +100 on something that has a 25% chance of happening is flat out stupid, which is why books will allow you to chase all you want. This is something I'm doing for fun and to provide my way of handicapping to the forum, rather than posting random threads in different forums.
