Fwiw
"My colleague, Randall the Handle and myself agree on the Super Bowl. We agree it's a tough game but we also agree on taking the points and Randall's analysis covers it all so here it is:
New Orleans +4½ over Indianapolis Pinnacle
Making a case for either side in this one would not be difficult. For the first time since 1993, when Buffalo met Dallas in Super Bowl XXVII, a pair of No. 1 seeds has made it to football’s grandest stage. Each team is littered with outstanding players but without doubt, quarterbacks Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints are the puppeteers of their respective squads. To no one’s surprise, this exceptional duo finished first and second respectively in MVP voting this year. Rather than list the attributes and statistics of both guys, it is safe to say that both are elite.
Brees will guide New Orleans to its first ever appearance in the Super Bowl. History would indicate that to be a problem. Of the 25 first time participants, only seven went on to victory and of the seven, four were facing opponents also making their debuts. In addition, the past four first-time winners all had a common denominator that is not in the Saints repertoire. The Bears, Ravens and Buccaneers all had suffocating defenses and all had allowed the fewest points in the NFL in their respective championship seasons. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points and yards. It should be noted that New Orleans’ defence ranked an unsettling 25th this year. Not only have the Colts been here before, they’ve actually been right here before as they won Super Bowl XLI just three seasons ago on this very field. Ask any player or coach who has gone through it and all will concur that having experienced this mammoth event is a distinct advantage.
As if the Colts needed an advantage. Under the leadership of Manning, Indianapolis has been a contending team over the past decade or so. Heading into the final two weeks of this campaign, the Colts were on a record 23-game win steak dating back to final eight games of 2008. It may have continued if not for management’s decision to rest starters in Indy’s final two contests this season, having secured the top seed. Winning three in a row in this league is challenging. Winning twenty-three straight is absurd. The Colts have an underrated defence, a good pass rush and a dangerous offence. With Manning at the helm, we’ve seen the Colts operate with surgical like precision. They are more than capable of defeating any team in this league at any time. A win here would not surprise anybody.
Football fans have short memories. There is a “what have you done for me lately’ mentality that sometimes can cloud judgment. After a 13-0 start, the Saints finished the season poorly and were fortunate to get by the Vikings two weeks ago. Indianapolis was impressive in its two playoff victories but let’s not forget that those wins came against a pair of 9-7 teams. Both the fifth-seeded Ravens and sixth-seeded Jets were quite fortunate to even be participating in the post season. Both were teams that relied more on defence than offence and once the potent Colts found a lead, the offensive ineptitude of both foes allowed the Colts to coast to the final gun. Since the league went to seeding the top six teams in each conference, no team in either the AFC or NFC has won the Super Bowl without defeating at least one team that won 10 or more games in the regular season and no AFC representative had reached the Super Bowl without beating at least one division winner.
The Saints, by comparison, had to go through a more traditional path to qualify for this game, having knocked off the No. 4-seeded Cardinals (10-6) and the No. 2-seeded Vikings (12-4). New Orleans topped the league in scoring with 510 points. It also had the top-ranked offensive unit with 404 yards per game. With its No. 1 ranked passing game and No. 6 ranked running game, the Saints were the only playoff team to rank in top 10 in both categories. Conversely, the Colts only averaged 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, making them dead last in the entire league.
Clearly, both offences are capable of scoring and logic would dictate that defence will be the difference maker. While the Colts are generally perceived as the stronger stop unit, much of that perception stems from recent memory and that might be a mistake. While the Colts were stopping Joe Flacco and rookie Mark Sanchez, the Saints were knocking off the likes of Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. Favre was able to move the ball but he took a bashing while doing so. The Colts were 18th overall on defence this season and while that may be a higher ranking than the Saints, a look at Indy’s opponents may illustrate a skewed standing. Indy’s schedule was filled with offensively challenged teams that included the Jets, Rams, Bills, Broncos, Niners, Seahawks and Jaguars. Against the proficient offences of Houston and New England, Indianapolis gave up 400 yards of offence to the Texans and nearly 500 to the Patriots, in addition to a combined 61 points. If that pair presented such problems, there is no telling what the Saints are capable of with their array of playmakers. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is no stranger to Peyton Manning. Having coached against the prolific quarterback with the Bills, Titans and Jaguars, Williams has had the challenging task of limiting No. 18. on many occasions.. He is well aware of the various changes required throughout the game as Manning is far too savvy to not figure out a sole defensive plan. Expect a mix of packages and New Orleans to play their aggressive, ball-hawking style. The Colts defensive unit could be without one of their key members as DE Dwight Freeney has a very wonky ankle. Under normal circumstances, Drew Brees is difficult to hit and with Freeney out or limited, it allows Brees and his offence to free up plays that may not have been available against a healthy Freeney.
This one has the makings of a classic and from where we sit, this championship is clearly up for grabs. With New Orleans’ abilities and significant points being offered, the newcomer Saints warrant our endorsement. Play: New Orleans +4½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2)."
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The Devil's Advocate
hno:
