YES or NO???
FoxSports
- March 05, 2010
Cards not a lock in NL Central
Think the Cards are a lock in the NL Central? Think again.
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I came to praise the Cardinals, but instead I'm going to bury them.
Well, not bury.
But the more I think about it, the less I am sold on St. Louis as the runaway winner of the National League Central.
Oh, the Cardinals are the best team on paper, thanks in large part to their own Core Four -- first baseman Albert Pujols, left fielder Matt Holliday and right-handers Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.
Baseballprojection.com, using two different CHONE methods -- one based on starting lineups, the other on depth charts -- forecasts the Cardinals to be at least 10 games better than their next-closest division rival.
But such projections do not account -- cannot possibly account -- for injuries and midseason additions.
Let's just come right out with it: If Carpenter fails to pitch the majority of the season, as he did in both 2007 and '08, the race could turn into a free-for-all among the Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers and even the Reds.
The Cardinals overcame their share of injuries last season, including the loss of Carpenter for more than a month. General manager John Mozeliak kept improvising, adding Holliday, third baseman Mark DeRosa, infielder Julio Lugo and right-hander John Smoltz.
Alas, the re-signing of Holliday to a $17 million annual salary almost certainly will make the Cardinals less flexible this season. The Cubs, no longer handcuffed by a change in ownership, will be in better position to make moves than they were last summer.
Every team anticipates better health -- even the Cubs, despite their older roster. The Reds do not expect to again lose first baseman Joey Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce for extended periods. The Brewers are hopeful -- repeat, hopeful -- that second baseman Rickie Weeks will remain sound.
Hey, it's spring training. Optimism reigns. Still, there are three things that bug me about the Cardinals, even if Carpenter stays healthy:
THE BULLPEN
Closer Ryan Franklin is coming off a career year at age 36, but certain statistics indicate he was rather fortunate last season.
Opponents batted only .269 on balls in play against him, far below the league average. Franklin also allowed home runs on only 3.2 percent of his fly balls, down from his rate of 10.4 percent the previous year.
As Erik Manning recently pointed out on fangraphs.com, most of the Cardinals' other relievers also benefited from good luck last season.
Other questions persist as well.
Franklin's likely setup men, right-handers Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs, are hard-throwing, younger pitchers. Each might be a future closer. But for now, both are largely unproven.
My inclination is to trust Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan, perhaps the game's best manager/pitching coach combination. But La Russa and Duncan don't always figure it out.
Since the start of their tenure in 1996, the Cardinals have ranked an average of seventh in the NL in bullpen ERA. Which just goes to show, no team is immune from the volatility of relief pitching.
THE LINEUP'S RIGHT-HANDED TILT
Want to know why La Russa is so eager to see Felipe Lopez at multiple positions?
Lopez, a switch-hitter, could give the Cardinals a third left-handed bat to go with second baseman Skip Schumaker and center fielder Colby Rasmus. None of the three is a slugger, though Rasmus' power only figures to increase.
Maybe I'm nitpicking: Pujols and Holliday are so good, they crush righties as well as lefties.
The Cubs, too, are imbalanced -- right fielder Kosuke Fukudome and second baseman Mike Fontenot are their only left-handed hitters who will play regularly.
The Brewers also lean right, but at least they've got Prince Fielder, one of the game's top left-handed sluggers, and a bench that figures to be almost entirely left-handed.
La Russa has nothing of the sort.
THE ROTATION. YEAH, THE ROTATION
If healthy, Carpenter and Wainwright will offer their usual brilliance. But if the Cardinals' 3-4-5 starters struggle, La Russa will find it that much more difficult to keep his bullpen in order.
The Cardinals actually might miss right-hander Joel Pineiro -- who left for the Angels as a free agent -- more than they imagined.
Right-hander Kyle Lohse cannot be as unlucky with injuries as he was last season, but his breakthrough in 2008 stands as an outlier -- his ERA that year was 3.78; for the rest of his career it's 4.82.
Righty Brad Penny is -- ahem -- a coin flip, even now with Duncan as his pitching coach. Righty Kyle McClellan is the likely fifth starter, while lefty Jaime Garcia offers possible depth.
Cardinals fans, I know what you're thinking: The Cubs' rotation (Ted Lilly coming off shoulder surgery, wacky Carlos Zambrano, no fifth starter) and bullpen (closer Carlos Marmol, no setup man) is far dicier.
The Brewers' rotation, headed by righty Yovani Gallardo and free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, should be better, but that doesn't necessarily mean good.
The success of the Reds' rotation hinges on the continued development of righty Homer Bailey -- and perhaps the emergence of lefty Aroldis Chapman.
But keep in mind: Two highly regarded pitching coaches, Rick Peterson and Bryan Price, could be difference-makers for the Brewers and Reds, respectively.
I'm not trying to be contrary; the Cardinals should win this sucker.
But Cubs officials, in particular, see the race differently.
Their club won the division in '07 and '08, the Cardinals finishing third and fourth, respectively. Last season, the Cubs were an absolute mess, yet they were tied for first place on Aug. 7 and still won 83 games.
Now everyone starts over.
Let's see which teams maintain the best health. Let's see which teams make the best trades.
This race could be a lot closer than people think.
FoxSports
- March 05, 2010
Cards not a lock in NL Central
Think the Cards are a lock in the NL Central? Think again.
<IFRAME id=ifr-frame1-300x250_336x280 border=0 frameBorder=0 width=1 scrolling=no height=1></IFRAME>
I came to praise the Cardinals, but instead I'm going to bury them.
Well, not bury.
But the more I think about it, the less I am sold on St. Louis as the runaway winner of the National League Central.
Oh, the Cardinals are the best team on paper, thanks in large part to their own Core Four -- first baseman Albert Pujols, left fielder Matt Holliday and right-handers Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.
Baseballprojection.com, using two different CHONE methods -- one based on starting lineups, the other on depth charts -- forecasts the Cardinals to be at least 10 games better than their next-closest division rival.
But such projections do not account -- cannot possibly account -- for injuries and midseason additions.
Let's just come right out with it: If Carpenter fails to pitch the majority of the season, as he did in both 2007 and '08, the race could turn into a free-for-all among the Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers and even the Reds.
The Cardinals overcame their share of injuries last season, including the loss of Carpenter for more than a month. General manager John Mozeliak kept improvising, adding Holliday, third baseman Mark DeRosa, infielder Julio Lugo and right-hander John Smoltz.
Alas, the re-signing of Holliday to a $17 million annual salary almost certainly will make the Cardinals less flexible this season. The Cubs, no longer handcuffed by a change in ownership, will be in better position to make moves than they were last summer.
Every team anticipates better health -- even the Cubs, despite their older roster. The Reds do not expect to again lose first baseman Joey Votto and right fielder Jay Bruce for extended periods. The Brewers are hopeful -- repeat, hopeful -- that second baseman Rickie Weeks will remain sound.
Hey, it's spring training. Optimism reigns. Still, there are three things that bug me about the Cardinals, even if Carpenter stays healthy:
THE BULLPEN
Closer Ryan Franklin is coming off a career year at age 36, but certain statistics indicate he was rather fortunate last season.
Opponents batted only .269 on balls in play against him, far below the league average. Franklin also allowed home runs on only 3.2 percent of his fly balls, down from his rate of 10.4 percent the previous year.
As Erik Manning recently pointed out on fangraphs.com, most of the Cardinals' other relievers also benefited from good luck last season.
Other questions persist as well.
Franklin's likely setup men, right-handers Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs, are hard-throwing, younger pitchers. Each might be a future closer. But for now, both are largely unproven.
My inclination is to trust Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan, perhaps the game's best manager/pitching coach combination. But La Russa and Duncan don't always figure it out.
Since the start of their tenure in 1996, the Cardinals have ranked an average of seventh in the NL in bullpen ERA. Which just goes to show, no team is immune from the volatility of relief pitching.
THE LINEUP'S RIGHT-HANDED TILT
Want to know why La Russa is so eager to see Felipe Lopez at multiple positions?
Lopez, a switch-hitter, could give the Cardinals a third left-handed bat to go with second baseman Skip Schumaker and center fielder Colby Rasmus. None of the three is a slugger, though Rasmus' power only figures to increase.
Maybe I'm nitpicking: Pujols and Holliday are so good, they crush righties as well as lefties.
The Cubs, too, are imbalanced -- right fielder Kosuke Fukudome and second baseman Mike Fontenot are their only left-handed hitters who will play regularly.
The Brewers also lean right, but at least they've got Prince Fielder, one of the game's top left-handed sluggers, and a bench that figures to be almost entirely left-handed.
La Russa has nothing of the sort.
THE ROTATION. YEAH, THE ROTATION
If healthy, Carpenter and Wainwright will offer their usual brilliance. But if the Cardinals' 3-4-5 starters struggle, La Russa will find it that much more difficult to keep his bullpen in order.
The Cardinals actually might miss right-hander Joel Pineiro -- who left for the Angels as a free agent -- more than they imagined.
Right-hander Kyle Lohse cannot be as unlucky with injuries as he was last season, but his breakthrough in 2008 stands as an outlier -- his ERA that year was 3.78; for the rest of his career it's 4.82.
Righty Brad Penny is -- ahem -- a coin flip, even now with Duncan as his pitching coach. Righty Kyle McClellan is the likely fifth starter, while lefty Jaime Garcia offers possible depth.
Cardinals fans, I know what you're thinking: The Cubs' rotation (Ted Lilly coming off shoulder surgery, wacky Carlos Zambrano, no fifth starter) and bullpen (closer Carlos Marmol, no setup man) is far dicier.
The Brewers' rotation, headed by righty Yovani Gallardo and free-agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, should be better, but that doesn't necessarily mean good.
The success of the Reds' rotation hinges on the continued development of righty Homer Bailey -- and perhaps the emergence of lefty Aroldis Chapman.
But keep in mind: Two highly regarded pitching coaches, Rick Peterson and Bryan Price, could be difference-makers for the Brewers and Reds, respectively.
I'm not trying to be contrary; the Cardinals should win this sucker.
But Cubs officials, in particular, see the race differently.
Their club won the division in '07 and '08, the Cardinals finishing third and fourth, respectively. Last season, the Cubs were an absolute mess, yet they were tied for first place on Aug. 7 and still won 83 games.
Now everyone starts over.
Let's see which teams maintain the best health. Let's see which teams make the best trades.
This race could be a lot closer than people think.
current odds @ sportsbook.com
hno:</TD></TR><TR class=trLine><TD colSpan=7></TD></TR><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD class=left width="25%"></TD><TD class=left noWrap width=25></TD><TD class=left noWrap>Pittsburgh Pirates</TD><TD class=left noWrap width=25></TD><TD class=sortOdds noWrap align=right>
</TD></TR><TR class=trLine><TD colSpan=7></TD></TR> <TR class=even vAlign=center><TD class=left width="25%"></TD><TD class=left noWrap width=25></TD><TD class=left noWrap>St Louis Cardinals</TD><TD class=left noWrap width=25></TD><TD class=sortOdds noWrap align=right>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<<in the middle of the order will be expected to lead the way. 
