BG, I thought it was very unusual to see you pick 3 overs in the same division. I know SF under partially offsets that, but San Diego troubles me. I went over last year, and was thrilled to somehow get the number needed. I seem to recall that you had lots of action on the NL West last year, too, can I surmise that you feel a certain affinity for this division's teams? Thanks for posting, and as always, GL!
Munson,
Yes it is somewhat concerning betting 3 Overs in the same division as there exists a fair amount of negative correlation ( the in division games played rate is higher in MLB than it is in the NFL and much higher compared to the NBA). However, having positions on Overs on 3 of the 5 teams, and one short on the other doesn't have me overexposed in my opinion, especially since if I am way on one one of the Over, since it it will more than likely help the other 2 Overs.
Simply put, this is the most underrated division in baseball (as it was last year) and possibly the second best division in all of baseball (2 or 3rd best in my opinion). Last year, 4 of the 5 teams went Over the posted total. Last year the NL West one 54% of their games against the East and Central and had the best Interleague record in the NL. This division has improved this year, and the market continues to discredit their true worth.
You are right about me having the propensity to have more positions in this division than any other. It just seems that their exists and anchoring bias that this division is bad, thus leading to an inefficient pricing.
Cool.
Thanks for the great advice and very valuable teachings you've done all season long last year for me and others taking us down the right path on the right way how to handicap baseball. You could of been selfish and went tout, but you shared your knowledge. I really appreciate it. It'll probably take me a while to create a correct EV+ intrinsic value fundamental system, but some day it will happened and that all that matters.
