Laying HUGE chalk on ML favorites

shdw01 · Mar 19, 2010

I know a guy that does this and he hasn't gotten burned bad yet.....

I swear it is ridiculous sometimes.....tonight I saw he has $9,000 on OSU -3600 to win $250

can this be profitable?

usually, i think they are in the -400 to -900 range....but still, seeing someone wager $2700 to win $300 sounds silly to me.....is this guy onto something?

krk1030 · Mar 19, 2010

It's like the martingale system, it will work for a while but when he gets burned it will be ugly.

shdw01 · Mar 19, 2010

this guy doesnt bet martingale style...

he usually just tries to win $200-$600 every bet.....and they usually range from -400 to -900......but he just wins a LOT ore than he loses (which is a given with odds like that)

shdw01 · Mar 19, 2010

I've seen a few games where he lost $6000+ but in total those HUGE losses are so rare they don't hurt the totals too much.....weird....

i guess a losing streak would hurt but it is tough to go on a losing streak when you are a 1-6 favorite

M.Saracen · Mar 20, 2010

Have a friend that does this too. He's been doing it for a couple years and hasn't gone bust yet. Just got himself another $1700 withdrawal last week.

He picks winners at probably a 90-92% rate and usually lays -200 to -600. He messed with point spreads for awhile and got frustrated trying to do it the "normal" way so he does what he does and wins.

I couldn't do it. First time I went to unload on the huge fave they'd lose.

SayHeyKid · Mar 20, 2010

Laying huge chalk without having good reason will never win you anything in the long run. However, If you do the math right and have the bankroll (most important) it can be very profitable. I don't like the idea of laying huge chalk in a sport like basketball, because so much of it is luck. A team could hit everything, and another team could go ice cold and then you are screwed.

Laying huge chalk is most senseable in tennis, as it's more predictable (and less luck is involved) if you do extensive homework.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Mar 20, 2010

Books love gamblers like you described...they WILL go broke...

VIEJODINOSAUR · Mar 20, 2010

Laying huge chalk in tennis WILL make you go broke...that is fact...

punter · Mar 20, 2010

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
Books love gamblers like you described...they WILL go broke...

What happend to " You can shear em and shear em but you can only skin em once"?

Dante · Mar 20, 2010

did he have KAN?? if so he is broke now

wannabewhale · Mar 20, 2010

NCAA Tourney would be an awful place to play the big favs

SayHeyKid · Mar 21, 2010

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
Laying huge chalk in tennis WILL make you go broke...that is fact...

Not true. If you are smart and know what you're doing laying big chalk in tennis can be extremely profitable due to the fact less luck is involved in tennis. On Betfair you can bet on all matches in game, and it's very predictable to see when one player has control of the match and simply not lose. I seldomly lose a -1500+ tennis play, but if I do lose one if it doesn't kill me, as it's not even 2% of my bankroll. One of the most profitable things i've done over the past 2-3 years. A goldmine if you exercise proper money management.

When it comes to laying "big chalk", most people can't make it work for two reasons.

1. They bet poor selections and bet "big chalk" merely because its a big chalk moneyline; opposed to finding value on that play.

2. They have no bankroll and inevitably they will lose, and thus go broke. If you can't afford to lose a -2000 play without betting your half your bankroll on a play, obviously that is a nightmare waiting to happen.

They key in gambling anything is finding plays with value, and having a sustainable bankroll.

shdw01 · Mar 21, 2010

He had Kansas at -750 AND Denver Nuggets at -700 today

I think he lost $1400 on Denver and $3600 on Kansas

still up $1000 on the week......but if another #1 seed goes down tomorrow then he may actually lose money this week

arizonacubs · Mar 21, 2010

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
Laying huge chalk in tennis WILL make you go broke...that is fact...

Not true Viejo, just ask Railbird. :smoking:

doubledeuce22 · Mar 21, 2010

shdw01 said:
He had Kansas at -750 AND Denver Nuggets at -700 today

I think he lost $1400 on Denver and $3600 on Kansas

still up $1000 on the week......but if another #1 seed goes down tomorrow then he may actually lose money this week

if i was betting this way, i'd be a lot more selective than laying that with the nuggets tonight.

shdw01 · Mar 21, 2010

doubledeuce22 said:
if i was betting this way, i'd be a lot more selective than laying that with the nuggets tonight.

hahaha....i agree....go figure

X-Files · Mar 21, 2010

From March 1-12 i have NBA favs of 10 or more going 22-0 SU.

From Feb.11-28 they were 10-2 SU.

In NCAA BKL March 1-12 such were 68-5 SU.

From Feb.10-28 it is 144-18.

Based on lines at: http://scoresline.com/scores.asp?

RobFunk · Mar 21, 2010

I think it works to a degree if you pick your spots. Sports you don't want to do it with is baseball and soccer

Laying HUGE chalk on ML favorites

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