2010 preview: Top 5 pitchers likely to have breakout seasons

roundrobin11 · Mar 22, 2010

John Lester
Adam Wainwright
Clayton Kershaw (look for him to overcome inconsistency and have an incredible year)
Shawn Marcum
David Price

Lets ride these winners all season!!

Here's a few who i think will have some inflated lines, and should have letdown years:

Roy Oswalt
Johan Santana
Mark Bhurle

Please feel free to share your views

seanm0520 · Mar 22, 2010

How will Lester be breaking out, if I may ask? Already a top 10 option...sub 3.5 ERA, 210+ K, 15+ wins.

Same with Wainwright, both are already pretty solid household names. Kershaw has showed his unbelievable stuff but can he lower his walks? Dude hasn't proven he can make it out past the 6th. Still very young and raw but his stuff is amazing. Marcum? Any back-up proof?

All three you mentioned for let-downs had off 2009's and are on the wrong side of 30. How inflated do you think they'll be? I could see Johan still being taken as a top 15 option but Buerhle is irrelevant to me now and Oswalt will be fine as a #4 fantasy guy.

VegasVic · Mar 22, 2010

Wainwright was 19-8 last year. Lester has a career mark of 42-16. Not sure what either can do to have a break out season. Neither will offer value considering the teams they play for.

Two I think should prove +EV.

The A's will offer much value this year and one guy you can keep an eye on is Brett Anderson.

Minnesota has what it takes to compete for the division, often undervauled on the line, and they don't come any better than Kevin Slowey.

seanm0520 · Mar 22, 2010

All fantasy circles are pimping out Anderson though. He is nowhere near a sleeper this year. He's on EVERY list, everywhere you look. Which sucks because I was hoping to land him for under $10 in any of my auction leagues but so far no luck.

VegasVic · Mar 22, 2010

seanm0520 said:
All fantasy circles are pimping out Anderson though. He is nowhere near a sleeper this year. He's on EVERY list, everywhere you look. Which sucks because I was hoping to land him for under $10 in any of my auction leagues but so far no luck.

I never said he's a sleeper. Everyone is touting the M's, Rangers, and Angels in the west. No one thinks the A's will win 78 games this year. Oakland will offer value on the line and so won't Anderson. With the numbers the linemakers will post on this team all Anderson needs to do is win .500 and he'll produce a profit.

VegasVic · Mar 22, 2010

Needless to say I think he'll do much better than .500

Mlink · Mar 22, 2010

MARCUM?????????? haa

roundrobin11 · Mar 22, 2010

I was speaking in terms of betting not fantasy. Oswalt and Santana will be given alot of respect in terms of betting lines.

Shawn Marcum had an ERA of 5.06 in 2006, 4.13 in 2007 and 3.39 in 2008, before missing the 2009 campaign due to injury. As a jays fan, I have seen him progress over the years and he is something special. He will be very undervalued being on a weak Jays team, and should be on the plus side of alot of lines. Look for Marcum to post a 12-15 win season this year.

As for Lester and Wainwright, they are household names, but i expect both to put up 20+ wins. That may not be considered breakout, you are right, so how about i change Wainwright and Lester to Brian Matusz (based on hype alone), and Kevin Slowey who was on pace for 17 wins and 168 strikeouts until he got hurt last year

roundrobin11 · Mar 22, 2010

Mlink said:
MARCUM?????????? haa

You going to just laugh or maybe back it up? I just gave you the numbers on how he has improved over the years so give me a reason to believe he wont progress even more

VegasVic · Mar 22, 2010

agree with Marcum. Rickey Romero as well.

roundrobin11 · Mar 22, 2010

VegasVic said:
agree with Marcum. Rickey Romero as well.

Ya i think Marcum is going to have a great year, hopefully. Romero has alot of potential too. I LOVEEEE McGowan as a starter, I just don't think he will start much this year. He will in 2011 and he will b lights out. We have a nice youthful starting rotation:

Marcum
Romero
Morrow
Rzepczynski
Tallet (he's just about as useless as u can get)

Then we have Cecil, Mcgowan, Eveland and Litsch. Cecil and McGowan are young and very good IMO, Litsch is ok, and I don't know much about Eveland yet as he is new to the team

olenubbs · Mar 23, 2010

roundrobin11 said:
Ya i think Marcum is going to have a great year, hopefully. Romero has alot of potential too. I LOVEEEE McGowan as a starter, I just don't think he will start much this year. He will in 2011 and he will b lights out. We have a nice youthful starting rotation:

Marcum
Romero
Morrow
Rzepczynski
Tallet (he's just about as useless as u can get)

Then we have Cecil, Mcgowan, Eveland and Litsch. Cecil and McGowan are young and very good IMO, Litsch is ok, and I don't know much about Eveland yet as he is new to the team

You guys are going to like Brandon Morrow a lot I think. He's got a very live arm, and can absolutely dominate hitters at times. Seattle admittedly mismanaged him, bouncing him back and forth between starter and reliever (like the Yanks with Joba). Several times though, I saw the guy come out of the 'pen in the 8th or 9th inning and consistently hit triple digits. I think the best possible thing we could've done for him was trade him to a rebuilding team like Toronto where he has the best opportunity to succeed. Jays have a VERY solid young staff...

gynecologist · Mar 23, 2010

Padilla

FairWarning · Mar 23, 2010

gynecologist said:
Padilla

He wont have a breakout year, but he is a guy in a great situation. Nice thing is you will lay short prices with Padilla. A great bullpen really helps.

I wouldn't touch Oswalt at all. Seems to get nicked up more, and Houston is sliding. Another pitcher you always want to take the dog in, is Zambrano.

Cp3playahata · Mar 23, 2010

I expect a big season from Roy Oswalt... if he stays healthy he will win 15 games or more.

As far as breakout pitchers look for Matt Cain to have a 18-20 win season .. he gets over shadowed by Tim Lincecum but Matt Cain has filthy stuff and is extremely hard to hit.

Cp3playahata · Mar 23, 2010

Seattle Mariners have great value as a darkhorse to win the World Series this year. With that pitching staff they will be a force this year and will win the AL west for sure. I just don't know if they can score enough runs to beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

roundrobin11 · Mar 23, 2010

olenubbs said:
You guys are going to like Brandon Morrow a lot I think. He's got a very live arm, and can absolutely dominate hitters at times. Seattle admittedly mismanaged him, bouncing him back and forth between starter and reliever (like the Yanks with Joba). Several times though, I saw the guy come out of the 'pen in the 8th or 9th inning and consistently hit triple digits. I think the best possible thing we could've done for him was trade him to a rebuilding team like Toronto where he has the best opportunity to succeed. Jays have a VERY solid young staff...

I like what Anthopolous has done since starting as GM. Riccardi was an idiot IMO, but i look forward to seeing how this mix of young pitchers we have will work out. I expect out rotation at the start of 2011 to be

Shawn Marcum, 28
Ricky Romero, 25
Brandon Morrow, 25
Dustin McGowan, 27
Brett Cecil, 23/ Rzepczynski 24

VegasVic · Mar 23, 2010

Cp3playahata said:
Seattle Mariners have great value as a darkhorse to win the World Series this year. With that pitching staff they will be a force this year and will win the AL west for sure. I just don't know if they can score enough runs to beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

After Lee and Hernandez....what pitching staff?

Cp3playahata · Mar 23, 2010

Well "if" Seattle can get to the playoffs the combination of Lee and Hernandez is as good as any 2 starting pitchers in baseball.

Also they have Erik Bedard who a couple seasons ago was an ace pitcher and all-star for the Baltimore Orioles. If he is healthy thats 3 really good pitchers. Ian Snell is not bad and the Mariners bullpen is decent but they could probably use another good relief pitcher.

If they stay healthy I think they can make a run this year they have pretty scrappy group of ball players. The only thing is the Yankees are flat out and all-star team. They have such a stacked bullpen and power throughout the line-up you could be up 5 runs and your still not safe.

seanm0520 · Mar 23, 2010

Yeah, sorry, got caught up thinking like fantasy baseball, haha. Sorry guys!

2010 preview: Top 5 pitchers likely to have breakout seasons

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