Arnold Palmer Invitational
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The PGA tour moves to Orlando to play the Arnold Palmer Invitational for the 27th time at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. There is excitement in the air with the recent changes to the course, but these changes improve an already great course and have minor effects on the fantasy game.
Bay Hill ranked fourth on the PGA Tour in '09 as the toughest course on the PGA Tour, is 7,400 yards long, and is a par-72. This course was difficult before the recent changes, but I suspect that Arnold Palmer has only made it tougher. The scores will not indicate that the course is tougher, but normal winds and tough pin placements will create havoc for the players this week.
One of the major changes is the conversion back to a par-72 and this will help lower scores. The two extra par-five's will aide in lowering scores and the added birdies this week will be fun to watch. Scrambling plays a bigger role than in the past with the repositioning of the bunkers around the greens. The grass around the greens has been shaved to created collection areas and these collection zones will provide different shot making for the players.
The winner should be around 14 under par, but someone who gets hot might be able to separate themselves from the field. Pay close attention to ball-striking, scrambling, and par-five performance this week and these attributes should have us playing target practice again.
[SIZE=+1]Back to Defend[/SIZE]
Tiger Woods:Not in Field</B>
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Sean O'Hair: This is a very risky pick and I know he did not perform for us last week at the Transitions, but I cannot ignore the second-place finish last year, the T3 in '08 and the T14 in '07. He does not come into the week with great momentum, but I am using the missed cut last week as an opportunity for O'Hair to make necessary tweaks. He ranks among the elite in ball-striking, scrambling, and par-five performance. If you choose to go a safer route, I understand, but "go big or go home" is my motto…Win
Dustin Johnson: Johnson does not have the history at this track to indicate success, but courses that are set up for birdies and have par-fives that are reachable in two, sit in his wheelhouse. I am not going to allow Johnson's poor scrambling percentage to hold me back and I am not worried about his MC last week and I look for a rebound this week...Top 5
Justin Rose: Two-straight top-15 finishes has me bullish on Rose. I like the positive trends surrounding his game presently and he has never missed the cut at Bay Hill in five appearances. The skill-set required this week is perfect for Rose's game…Top 5
Ernie Els: You cannot ignore the win at the WGC-CA Championship by Els and his confidence is soaring. I saw him on Monday at the Tavistock Cup, he just looks at ease, and the Big Easy can get it in the hole with the best of them (T2 in Scoring Average). He has not played Bay Hill the last two years, but he comes into this week fresh after taking last week off…Top 10
Retief Goosen: I admire his demeanor and nothing rattles the South African. Goosen got back on track last week at the Transitions and finished fifth. He has made five straight cuts at Bay Hill and the added two par-fives will benefit him since he ranks fifth in par-five performance…Top 10
[SIZE=+1]Demotions[/SIZE]
Trevor Immelman: I see major improvement in his game and he never made any motion about his wrist when I saw him at the Tavistock Cup and that injury looks to be behind him. He will get back to the elite level, but it is going to take a little time…36+
Brett Quigley: We all know of his success in the Florida Swing, but his success has not been at Bay Hill. His attributes do not indicate that this year he will turn it around…36+
Charlie Wi: Two poor finishes at Bay Hill is a bigger concern for me than his recent play. I worry about his ball-striking and his poor play on the par-fives…46+
Jason Day: We are seeing the player from '08 and not the player from '09 from Day. His best finish all year has been a T46 and he is definitely affecting some fantasy teams with his lackluster performance…46+
Ben Curtis: He sticks out like a sore-thumb on Lake Nona's team at the Tavistock Cup and he has missed two-straight cuts on the PGA Tour.…MC+
[SIZE=+1]Sleepers[/SIZE]
Vaughn Taylor: Taylor has made four of five cuts at Bay Hill and had made five-straight cuts in '10 before playing poorly last week. The added days at Bay Hill should help and I like his made-cut streak at Bay Hill to continue this week…Top 20
Pat Perez: Perez has made all seven cuts at Bay Hill and has three top-10's. He has the needed attributes this week and his poor play of late is a concern, but I am taking a flyer lie on Perez…Top 20
[SIZE=+1]The Pro Shop[/SIZE]
The PGA tour moves to Orlando to play the Arnold Palmer Invitational for the 27th time at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. There is excitement in the air with the recent changes to the course, but these changes improve an already great course and have minor effects on the fantasy game.
Bay Hill ranked fourth on the PGA Tour in '09 as the toughest course on the PGA Tour, is 7,400 yards long, and is a par-72. This course was difficult before the recent changes, but I suspect that Arnold Palmer has only made it tougher. The scores will not indicate that the course is tougher, but normal winds and tough pin placements will create havoc for the players this week.
One of the major changes is the conversion back to a par-72 and this will help lower scores. The two extra par-five's will aide in lowering scores and the added birdies this week will be fun to watch. Scrambling plays a bigger role than in the past with the repositioning of the bunkers around the greens. The grass around the greens has been shaved to created collection areas and these collection zones will provide different shot making for the players.
The winner should be around 14 under par, but someone who gets hot might be able to separate themselves from the field. Pay close attention to ball-striking, scrambling, and par-five performance this week and these attributes should have us playing target practice again.
[SIZE=+1]Back to Defend[/SIZE]
Tiger Woods:Not in Field</B>
[SIZE=+1]Promotions[/SIZE]
Sean O'Hair: This is a very risky pick and I know he did not perform for us last week at the Transitions, but I cannot ignore the second-place finish last year, the T3 in '08 and the T14 in '07. He does not come into the week with great momentum, but I am using the missed cut last week as an opportunity for O'Hair to make necessary tweaks. He ranks among the elite in ball-striking, scrambling, and par-five performance. If you choose to go a safer route, I understand, but "go big or go home" is my motto…Win
Dustin Johnson: Johnson does not have the history at this track to indicate success, but courses that are set up for birdies and have par-fives that are reachable in two, sit in his wheelhouse. I am not going to allow Johnson's poor scrambling percentage to hold me back and I am not worried about his MC last week and I look for a rebound this week...Top 5
Justin Rose: Two-straight top-15 finishes has me bullish on Rose. I like the positive trends surrounding his game presently and he has never missed the cut at Bay Hill in five appearances. The skill-set required this week is perfect for Rose's game…Top 5
Ernie Els: You cannot ignore the win at the WGC-CA Championship by Els and his confidence is soaring. I saw him on Monday at the Tavistock Cup, he just looks at ease, and the Big Easy can get it in the hole with the best of them (T2 in Scoring Average). He has not played Bay Hill the last two years, but he comes into this week fresh after taking last week off…Top 10
Retief Goosen: I admire his demeanor and nothing rattles the South African. Goosen got back on track last week at the Transitions and finished fifth. He has made five straight cuts at Bay Hill and the added two par-fives will benefit him since he ranks fifth in par-five performance…Top 10
[SIZE=+1]Demotions[/SIZE]
Trevor Immelman: I see major improvement in his game and he never made any motion about his wrist when I saw him at the Tavistock Cup and that injury looks to be behind him. He will get back to the elite level, but it is going to take a little time…36+
Brett Quigley: We all know of his success in the Florida Swing, but his success has not been at Bay Hill. His attributes do not indicate that this year he will turn it around…36+
Charlie Wi: Two poor finishes at Bay Hill is a bigger concern for me than his recent play. I worry about his ball-striking and his poor play on the par-fives…46+
Jason Day: We are seeing the player from '08 and not the player from '09 from Day. His best finish all year has been a T46 and he is definitely affecting some fantasy teams with his lackluster performance…46+
Ben Curtis: He sticks out like a sore-thumb on Lake Nona's team at the Tavistock Cup and he has missed two-straight cuts on the PGA Tour.…MC+
[SIZE=+1]Sleepers[/SIZE]
Vaughn Taylor: Taylor has made four of five cuts at Bay Hill and had made five-straight cuts in '10 before playing poorly last week. The added days at Bay Hill should help and I like his made-cut streak at Bay Hill to continue this week…Top 20
Pat Perez: Perez has made all seven cuts at Bay Hill and has three top-10's. He has the needed attributes this week and his poor play of late is a concern, but I am taking a flyer lie on Perez…Top 20
