Need Help...How and when should I start hedging this bet?

SundayTiger · Mar 27, 2010

<table id="pendingWager" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="headerBG" colspan="2">16) BET ID=306318463 </td></tr> <tr> <td class="pending"> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td width="220">Future Wager</td> <td>01/19/10 11:42 ET</td></tr> <tr> <td width="220">bet 40.00 to win 3,000.00 </td> <td>Result: Pending</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr> <tr> <td class="pendingAltColor" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="2">2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament - Indianapolis IN - Odds to Win</td></tr> <tr> <td width="220">Kansas State </td> <td>04/05/10(19:00 ET)
+7500 </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table id="pendingWager" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <td class="headerBG" colspan="2">18) BET ID=305590343 </td></tr> <tr> <td class="pending"> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td width="220">Future Wager</td> <td>01/12/10 22:11 ET</td></tr> <tr> <td width="220">bet 80.00 to win 8,000.00 </td> <td>Result: Pending</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr> <tr> <td class="pendingAltColor" colspan="2"> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="2">2010 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament - Indianapolis IN - Odds to Win</td></tr> <tr> <td width="220">Kansas State </td> <td>04/05/10(19:00 ET)
+10000 </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

omahamoneymaker · Mar 27, 2010

Nice job Tiger and some sweet odds. Did you catch +7500 after the first round?

I assume you haven't hedged any yet. Really haven't needed to probably with not much invested for some great odds.

If you take some money on future odds of Mich State, Butler and Tenn on that side of the bracket to win it all you can hedge some money easily.

I would also try to catch some ML on Butler and for sure some future of +2000 on Butler to win it all.

I have a similar situation I can share in your thread in a bit.

omahamoneymaker · Mar 27, 2010

For starters you know that you can get ML on Butler at +170 now. If they face Tenn I would guess that you could get Tenn ML +150 or so. If they play Mich State you could probably get better than that.

In the final game they will be -150 to +150 depending on matchup and only a bit more of an underdog if Kentucky is impressive and playing in final.

So, you could bet 500 on butler ML today and I would do a small parlay Butler ML with Tenn ML. If it covers you are up 1K or so.

If not, you have 700 or so riding on KState in final 4. You can hedge at that point if you have Matchbook by taking KState to lose the tournament of continuing to hedge on the next two games.

In final 4 matchup you could take 1K on Tenn or Mich State to win 1.5. If that wins you are up close to 1K. If it loses you have KState in final game 1.7K to win 11K. At that point you could lock in a 3k profit.

Or, if you had a significant amount of money in Matchbook right now you could lay 6 to 1 odds on KState not to win the tournament. Least attractive option in my opinion at this time.

During all of this you will want to keep an eye on the other brackets to check out potential matchups. For example if Kentucky gets knocked out your odds if KState makes the final go to a pick or better vs Baylor, Duke or WVirginia.

Hope this helps some.

omahamoneymaker · Mar 27, 2010

I am currently sitting on the left side of the bracket with the following pending:

Mich State 50 for 2300 to win tournament
Tennessee 50 for 1300 to win EAST
Butler 20 for 1200 to win tournament

My problem is the opposite of yours as I don't have any KState money. I did bet them in the last round ML to beat Xavier as I had some money on Xavier to win it all.

Today I am putting down some KState ML at -175 and I will be doing a KState with Mich State parlay and a smaller Butler with Tenn parlay.

If Butler wins today my Mich State odds will be looking real good. If KState wins I cash some money today and parlay with Mich State pending. Then if Tenn wins tomorrow I cash the 1300 ticket. If they lose I win my parlay bet and have an opportunity to hedge out on my Mich State bet with 3 other teams left. Should be able to work this out some way to cash 500 or more.

omahamoneymaker · Mar 27, 2010

If you have MB I would like to have a couple hundred on KState to win tournament. I would throw out some KState -600 for you @)

SundayTiger · Mar 27, 2010

OMM,

Alot of good thoughts here. I will take the advice and figure out an attack plan of assuring myself a win no matter what way the tourney plays out.

I made the bets in January.

TomGshotput · Mar 27, 2010

The only true hedge would have been to bet their opponent on the money line starting a week ago. Anything other than that is gambling

Akillies · Mar 27, 2010

too many cover bets, ruins your expectation

Dante · Mar 27, 2010

you only wagered 120$ to win 11000$ why do you need to hedge that small a bet??? just ride it out until you get to the final game and then maybe take the other team for 2000$ or so in any case its only 120$

Doug · Mar 27, 2010

Dante said:
you only wagered 120$ to win 11000$ why do you need to hedge that small a bet??? just ride it out until you get to the final game and then maybe take the other team for 2000$ or so in any case its only 120$

Didn't you just spend about $70 to get about $800 out of Heritage ?

Maybe the guy wants to lock in a profit ?

The bet is small, but the payoff is large, not a terrible time to hedge, if you can get a good line.

I see $246 available at MB on K-state to lose ( the tournament) at -570 now. I might grab that, if I had your future.

omahamoneymaker · Mar 27, 2010

I am with you Doug. I would be locking in a profit. Probably would have taken Butler on the ML when it was at +180 or more this morning. Put down 400 or so on them. That's just me though.

I had Washington 400 for about 20,000 to win the East side and I hedged out and now have some great options and won some money already on that side. If I hadn't hedged I would be out 400.

Everyone is different in these situations. It also depends on your bankroll as hedging in my situation was going to require me to possibly put down a 8 to 9k wager to hedge in final East game.

omahamoneymaker · Mar 27, 2010

Funny you mention the $246 of -570 laying out there. I was putting some of it out there earlier but as the line on KState started dropping I started putting my money on KState ML today instead of on them to win the tournament.

Betallsports · Mar 27, 2010

Main Bet should be on Tonight's game , Butler +150-+165

Because if K.state goes down Tonight, there is No Tomorrow.

Then you can go from there.....

Doug · Mar 27, 2010

I don't like taking Butler + a few points to hedge, K-state could win big.

The hedge is K-state to lose ( the tournament) at -570

How about KS to lose for the $246 there ?

$1402 risk to win $246. You at least show a tiny profit if Butler wins, or KS fails to go all the way.

I'd do that, but you only got about an hour.

I don't get Dante saying nothing to hedge !

You can hedge more later if KS wins, at a better price.

It depends if you want something from this, you must to have started the thread, eh ?

GL

I'd take the hedge on it, at MB lines, personally.

Betallsports · Mar 27, 2010

Doug said:
I don't like taking Butler + a few points to hedge, K-state could win big.

The hedge is K-state to lose ( the tournament) at -570

How about KS to lose for the $246 there ?

$1402 risk to win $246. You at least show a tiny profit if Butler wins, or KS fails to go all the way.

I'd do that, but you only got about an hour.

I don't get Dante saying nothing to hedge !

You can hedge more later if KS wins, at a better price.

It depends if you want something from this, you must to have started the thread, eh ?

GL

I'd take the hedge on it, at MB lines, personally.

Why would you Risk $1402 ??? When you can get Plus Money on Butler ??

If, and I say IF Butler Wins....He has Locked in his Profit, and saved his Bets.

If K. State wins, he Lives another day to Hedge again.

Doug · Mar 27, 2010

Betallsports said:
Main Bet should be on Tonight's game , Butler +150-+165

Because if K.state goes down Tonight, there is No Tomorrow.

Then you can go from there.....

He could lose both bets, this way BAS !

A KS win loses the Butler bet, doesnt guarantee KS wins the whole thing.

THE ONLY REAL HEDGE IS KS TO LOSE AT -570, or so.

Doug · Mar 27, 2010

betallsports said:
why would you risk $1402 ??? When you can get plus money on butler ??

If, and i say if butler wins....he has locked in his profit, and saved his bets.

If k. State wins, he lives another day to hedge again.

kansas state win and cover !

Dante · Mar 27, 2010

Betallsports said:
Why would you Risk $1402 ??? When you can get Plus Money on Butler ??

If, and I say IF Butler Wins....He has Locked in his Profit, and saved his Bets.

If K. State wins, he Lives another day to Hedge again.

good point BAS... not agreeing with doug at all on that

TheDopeman · Mar 27, 2010

i don't mean to be a downer but there is absolutely no way kansas state wins the championship.

you need to start hedging right away

bol

Betallsports · Mar 27, 2010

Dante said:
good point BAS... not agreeing with doug at all on that

I could see Doug's Point, but Not with those Odds...IMO

His two Bets Total $140, now your asking him to Lay $1400 to get back $200+ ???

Not on My Dime......I would rather Let it Ride !