MLB 4/5 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2010

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

ontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w

ontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w

ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-charset:1; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-format

ther; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:0 0 0 0 0 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style> Here are some of my larger plays for opening day.
<o

> </o

>
Marlins +114
I strongly feel that we have seen the best of Santana and a possible material downgrade of productivity is in the cards for him this year. The market will be slow to adjust if my prediction comes to fruition, so a secular overvaluation on him may be in the cards this season. His strikeout rate has been on a year to year decline, while his WHIP is getting worse. Coming off elbow surgery adds another bearish variable into the formula. He is also backed by a mediocre bullpen whose front end is suspect. Given the notion that Santana will be on a smaller pitch count in his first start and has been known to struggle early in seasons, this front end may be exposed. Johnson is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and still somewhat underrated. If there were to be value on him at all this season, it will probably be early on.
<o

></o

>The Marlins have one of the best lineups in the NL . The Mets one of the worst. The back end of their lineup is dead weight, and the front end suspect without Reyes. This leads me to believe their 3,4 hitters will have limited opportunities to drive people in.
<o

> </o

>
Pirates +137
The market is slowing correcting this opening line mockery out of the Pirates, but still value remains. Simply put, Padilla doesn’t warrant laying these kinds of odds to almost anyone on the road. Padilla’s line seems to be inflated due to the carry over effect from his second half surge late last year. However, he is one of the streakier pitchers in baseball, leading me to believe there should be no carry over effect. With injuries to a couple key bullpen pitchers, the Dodgers underbelly has become well below average. This should hurt them the most early in the season when starters are less likely to go deep into games. Duke is decent and a live dog in this spot. His past success against the Dodgers is also a plus.
<o

> </o

>
Brewers -128
The Rockies may very well represent the NL in the World Series this year. They have the best lineup in the NL, and a decent enough rotation and bullpen to compliment this huge edge at the plate. However, the injuries to Street and Buckholtz makes their bullpen a liability right now, and bullpen’s intrinsic worth is magnified early in the season. Homefield advantage is also magnified in this game, as both starters perform much better at home, and both teams bats have the propensity to do so as well. Adjusted for homefield advantage, the Brewers have the edge in every facet of this game, including their bats. Laying -128 is a bargain.
<o

> </o

>
Braves -125
I really think the Braves are a dangerous team this year. Their starting rotation is deep and talented, their bullpen is as good as it gets, and their lineup is well above average. The only thing holding them back is their age and potential probably injuries. But that should not be a factor early in the season. Lowe is well past his prime, but should improve off of last seasons numbers. He looked good in spring, now walking a batter in 18 innings. The depth in the Braves bullpen gives them leverage in handling him on opening day. Zambrano is being priced on name value and not recent production. He hasn’t had very solid season in 3 years, and now has a lot of miles on his arm. I think this season will be his fourth straight season below career averages. The Cubs should be in for another mediocre season, in large part because of the lack of arms in their bullpen. This problem should be magnified early on. Their lineup is average, overrated, and old, and in return, overvalued.
<o

> </o

>
Rangers -132
The Blue Jays are bad, and quite possibly a bottom five team this season. The Rangers have one of the better lineups in the league, and one of the most underrated bullpens in the league. The only thing holding them back is their rotation, which should be much of a concern when Feldman is on the mound. I was a big Marcum backer 2 years ago when the market was not. But he has not pitched in two years and is pitching with a brand new elbow. He didn’t pitch much in spring training so he is a big question mark. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as he has little margin of error going up against a potent lineup and being backed by an anemic one.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 3, 2010

Don't the Rookies line up look so attractive? If the odd makers and market agree they might be a lot of value picking your spots against them.

I'm definitely on the first two plays large.

You already know how i feel about the Brewers.

What's your line or thoughts on the Sea/Oak game?

fugazi · Apr 3, 2010

definitely will be on the Rangers. Rangers are going to kick some major ass this year IMO.

BORO · Apr 3, 2010

Thanks for posting Buffet. Always enjoyed reading you insight.

buffettgambler · Apr 3, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Don't the Rookies line up look so attractive? If the odd makers and market agree they might be a lot of value picking your spots against them.

I'm definitely on the first two plays large.

You already know how i feel about the Brewers.

What's your line or thoughts on the Sea/Oak game?

I think there will be as many spots backing the Rockies as there will going against them. I think the market may be underestimating the Rockies lineup (it is that good). My guess is the overvaluation on their opening day line is based on the lack of correction to their key BP injuries, and Jimenez and Rockies decreased productivity in road games.

I entered a medium position on the A's earlier this morning.

meaculpa · Apr 4, 2010

My apologies for the ignorant question, but do you keep records?
I heard you were good and I like the write-up's, but -as Mistaflave proves every now and then- the write-up's themselves do not have to mean profit ensues

Especially with the great difference in ML-lines for MLB I have always felt you can get the idea you are doing great while you are down on the year.

Best of luck with your bets in any case!

Rip007 · Apr 4, 2010

Thanks BG...Happy Easter

Stabler12 · Apr 4, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. Great to see a baseball writeup again!

jacksonjohn · Apr 4, 2010

mea culpa said:
My apologies for the ignorant question, but do you keep records?
I heard you were good and I like the write-up's, but -as Mistaflave proves every now and then- the write-up's themselves do not have to mean profit ensues

Especially with the great difference in ML-lines for MLB I have always felt you can get the idea you are doing great while you are down on the year.

Best of luck with your bets in any case!

Excellent point. I've been wagering for over 35 years and my experience is that there are many who have amassed a treasure load of insight and data and can write a very convincing argument for their side. This does not always, in fact seldom, translates into a talent for picking winners.

Having said that, the vast majority of guys who post on forums invest their time and effort free of charge, so it's a little tacky to ask them for more. So if I am considering tailing someone who, for whatever reason, does not keep a YTD record of wins, losses and net profit (mandatory with ML wagers), then I will keep the record myself.

If memory serves correctly, I don't believe buffettgambler keeps a YTD record, but he can speak for himself.

<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

buffettgambler · Apr 4, 2010

mea culpa said:
My apologies for the ignorant question, but do you keep records?
I heard you were good and I like the write-up's, but -as Mistaflave proves every now and then- the write-up's themselves do not have to mean profit ensues

Especially with the great difference in ML-lines for MLB I have always felt you can get the idea you are doing great while you are down on the year.

Best of luck with your bets in any case!

No, I don't track a posting record since it is not commensurate to my actual record. I move in and out of positions quite often, and do not post all my positions. Lastly, since forums records lack fungibility, I encourage others to track posters they wish using a consistent method that filters out posters chasing, inflated units, and other shenanigans.

Thanks RIP and Munson.

NApst · Apr 5, 2010

Hi Buffettgambler

Thank you for your plays. Glad to see you still posting your analysis. It will certainly make this baseball season more exciting as usual.

best regards

Nüpst

meaculpa · Apr 5, 2010

Thank you for the answer Buffettgambler! Best of luck with the season!

jacksonjohn said:
Having said that, the vast majority of guys who post on forums invest their time and effort free of charge, so it's a little tacky to ask them for more.

Yes I know which is why I tried to formulate my post as careful as possible. Have had in the past that I asked a question, about the person's betting strategy for instance, and some people immediately assumed my question equaled harsh criticism and virtually tried to throw me out of the thread. But let's not dwell, I am glad that did not happen here (<)<

I will just follow small

Akillies · Apr 5, 2010

why the short price on greinke and linececum, i must be missing something? my guess you are against both of them.

powerz · Apr 5, 2010

gl this season buffett - always like to know your position relative to the market

lakersyankees · Apr 5, 2010

love the rangers and brewers here, BOL

Jibba · Apr 5, 2010

Glad to see you back again BG. Really liking the picks today, particularly Florida, Pitt and Atlanta. Also can't help liking Seattle. BOL this year.

buffettgambler · Apr 5, 2010

Thanks everyone.
The market seems to be agreeing with a lot of my picks. Always a good sign to have your model aligned with the aggregate market early in the season.

buffettgambler · Apr 5, 2010

Akillies said:
why the short price on greinke and linececum, i must be missing something? my guess you are against both of them.

I have a medium play on the Royals. I value the Giants game at -118/+118, so unless the market bids up the Giants before the close, it is a no play.

Akillies · Apr 5, 2010

buffettgambler said:
I have a medium play on the Royals. I value the Giants game at -118/+118, so unless the market bids up the Giants before the close, it is a no play.

geinke it is then, guess he is so out of favor that it becomes value

buffettgambler · Apr 5, 2010

Akillies said:
geinke it is then, guess he is so out of favor that it becomes value

I will have to wait until Wednesday's line, but my initial guess is that this is not a market undervaluation on Grienke, but rather a slight overvaluation on the Tigers team as a whole.