Spot on with this thread.
You are paying a steep price for past success from pitchers, which isnt always a smart thing to do this early in the year. Many won't agree with this but I feel bettors put way too much into starting pitching, IMO. If you look at some of the line moves so far today it is the better pitcher getting backed.
Starters aren't completely stretched out this time of year meaning the bullpens are relied upon much more to pitch way more innings then say a game in July. The books price these favorites like a pithcer is in mid-season form and capable of dominating and pitching a complete game. So you aren't getting value for your pitcher like you would later in the year.
Hope I explained this well, LOL.