Sunday's Opening Night MLB Best Bets !

Yankees at Red Sox

The 2010 baseball season gets underway Sunday night with one of sports' best rivalries when the Red Sox host the Yankees. New York will have to wait until later in the week to raise the World Series banner from last season, as the Bombers open against Boston for the first time since 2005. The Sox, meanwhile, will try to bounce back after getting swept by the Angels in last season's ALDS.

CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees, looking to capitalize on his strong 2009 debut in the Bronx. The southpaw finished 19-8 with an ERA of 3.37, as Sabathia has yet to win 20 games in a season in his nine-year career. Sabathia was strong no matter where he pitched, but his offense provided more help on the highway, averaging 6.5 runs in his 21 road starts. The Bombers went 14-7 in the lefty's road outings last season, while the 'over' was a strong play at 15-6. Sabathia saw plenty of success against Boston, winning three of four starts, while the 'under' hit three times.

Josh Beckett will attempt to silence the Yankees' bats, looking to rebound from an awful outing the last time he saw the Champs in August. Beckett allowed five homers and eight earned runs in an 8-4 setback to Sabathia and the Yankees on August 24, 2009. How rare was Beckett's gopher-ball barrage when facing New York? The fireballer yielded just four homers combined in nine previous starts against the Yanks.

Beckett's finish to 2009 was something the former World Series MVP would like to forget. The righty compiled only three quality starts in his final ten outings including a loss in the ALDS to the Angels. Home is where the heart is for Beckett as evidenced by his 10-1 mark last season at Fenway. The Sox won 13 of Beckett's 16 home starts as Boston outscored opponents by three runs a game.

Last season's series was split right down the middle at nine apiece. However, it was a tale of two seasons as the Red Sox captured the first eight meetings. The Yankees stormed back with victories in eight of the next nine matchups, even though seven of those wins came in the Bronx. The two big highlights from New York's series victory at Fenway in August were the home run derby against Beckett and the 20-run outburst against the Sox in the series opener.

The practice of Opening Night in baseball beginning on a Sunday night has been going on for a handful of years with the defending Champs customarily being showcased. There have been mixed results with backing the World Series Champion, as they have gone 2-2 over the last four seasons. The Phillies were tripped up at home against the Braves last season, 4-1, easily finishing 'under' the total of 8 ½.

Despite last season's slip-up at Baltimore on Opening Day, the Yankees are 3-1 the last four series openers. The O's trampled the Yanks in Sabathia's debut, 10-5, as Baltimore cashed as $1.60 home underdogs. The Yanks won at home to start the '07 and '08 seasons, while trouncing the A's in Oakland, 15-2 in 2006.

The Sox will be opening the season at Fenway for the second straight season following a 5-3 victory over the Rays to start '09. Boston began 2008 in Japan with a two-game series against Oakland, splitting the set. The opener did go to the Sox in ten innings, as Boston came out on top, 6-5 as $1.60 favorites.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-- It's great that baseball season is back, but like any sport, remember not to rush into things. The season is extremely long with plenty of betting opportunities for the next six months.

-- With that announcement out of the way, the Monday card has plenty of interesting matchups, including five road favorites. Three former Cy Young winners take the hill in those contests, including Tim Lincecum (at Houston), Chris Carpenter (at Cincinnati), and Roy Halladay (at Washington). The ex-Blue Jay ace makes his Phillies' debut on the road, while being the largest favorite on the board.

-- Favorites went 6-5 on last season's Opening Day, but three underdogs of $1.30 or higher pulled off victories (Mariners, Pirates, and Orioles). Totals were tough to gauge, finishing 5-5-1, as six games plated at least ten runs each.
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Opening night adds new twist to rivalry

By HOWARD ULMAN AP Sports Writer

BOSTON(AP) -- The rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox is already intense. Throw in a couple of new twists and the hype soars.

Sunday night's game between the storied franchises is the first of the 2010 season, a prime-time showcase all to themselves while other teams wait until Monday for opening day.

And New York starts off as defending champions for the first time since its 2001 opener.

"It's special," Mark Teixeira said. "You're not going to be able to go into the season as defending World Series champs every single year. So when you get a chance to do that, it makes the start of the season that much more fun."

A handful of Boston's players know what that's like. The Red Sox were hailed as champions after winning the 2007 World Series then had to refocus.

"We spent the whole spring telling everybody to move on, so it was kind of a mixed message," manager Terry Francona said.

It will be hard to glean anything from Sunday night's game, though there's sure to be some hand-wringing by the losing team's rabid fan base. The Red Sox won their opener last year and were swept by the Los Angeles Angels in the AL division series. The Yankees started with a loss and finished with their 27th World Series title.

"Opening Night is special regardless of who you're playing," Francona said. "I'm sure there will be a little extra anticipation. I think we just need to win, regardless of who we play."

Boston's Josh Beckett and New York's CC Sabathia will make their second consecutive opening-day starts in what is expected to be unseasonably warm weather.

Last year's Red Sox opener was rained out, but Beckett sparkled in a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay the next day in Boston, allowing one run and two hits with nine strikeouts in seven innings.

Sabathia's opener? Not quite the same.

He looked nothing like the pitcher the Yankees expected when they signed him before the season to a $161 million, seven-year contract. The left-hander allowed six runs and eight hits in 4 1-3 innings with five walks and two wild pitches in a 10-5 loss at Baltimore. He had no strikeouts for the first time since July 25, 2005, at Oakland.

When the season ended, though, he was 19-8 with a 3.37 ERA.

"CC's personality is perfect," Yankees captain Derek Jeter said. "He doesn't get fazed by much. He wants to pitch."

The game originally was scheduled for Monday before being switched, giving the spotlight to teams which have won three of the last six World Series - an attractive matchup for television viewers.

"Opening day, there's always a certain amount of anxiety to go along with the excitement," Francona said. "When's the first pitch? 8:09? That's a long day. There's no way I'm going to go to the ballpark later because it's a later (start). It just doesn't work that way. Get there early and do a lot of sitting around."

The Yankees made the big moves in free agency before last season, adding Sabathia, Teixeira and right-hander A.J. Burnett. The Red Sox nabbed the big name before this season by signing John Lackey, the top starter with the Angels but the No. 3 behind Beckett and lefty Jon Lester with Boston.

How is Beckett looking?

"Good, driven," Francona said. "He's ready to go."

The Yankees let World Series MVP Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon leave as free agents over the winter and traded Melky Cabrera. They picked up center fielder Curtis Granderson, designated hitter Nick Johnson and right-hander Javier Vazquez.

New York also is looking forward to a full year from Alex Rodriguez, who missed the first 28 games last year after hip surgery.

Boston lost left fielder Jason Bay in free agency but upgraded its defense by signing Gold Glovers Mike Cameron to play center and Adrian Beltre for third base. Marco Scutaro takes over at shortstop for Alex Gonzalez.

"I've played the Yankees before," Cameron said. "It's built up more by (the media) than the players. For us, it's always big. Playing here every day is big. I'm not going to try and make it any bigger than it is.

"It's good to see how you match up. They've got a lot of new players. We have a few new players."

The Yankees also take it for what it is, just the first of 162 regular-season games.

"The motivation is simple," Jeter said. "You want to win."

This will be the fourth time in 26 years that the rivals have met in the opener. New York won the last two in 1992 and 2005, both in Yankee Stadium. Boston won at Fenway Park in 1985 and is opening the season at home for just the third time since 1996.

"Going there is always special," said Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte, looking forward to his 16th opening day. "It's fun. The fans make it fun. The atmosphere is always great. The reason why it's so great is the excitement when you walk out of that dugout, the buzz. It doesn't get old."

Pettitte is scheduled to face Lackey in Wednesday's finale of the three-game series. Lester goes against Burnett on Tuesday.
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MLB
LongSheet


Sunday, April 4

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NY YANKEES (114 - 63) at BOSTON (95 - 70) - 8:05 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. JOSH BECKETT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 114-54 (+30.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 27-9 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 114-54 (+30.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 83-38 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
BECKETT is 18-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games in April games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 59-27 (+19.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 78-39 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SABATHIA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 320-291 (-52.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

C.C. SABATHIA vs. BOSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 5-7 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.14 and a WHIP of 1.218.
His team's record is 5-8 (-3.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-3. (+5.7 units)

JOSH BECKETT vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BECKETT is 10-6 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.77 and a WHIP of 1.353.
His team's record is 11-8 (+3.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-8. (+2.8 units)

MLB


Sunday, April 4

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Trend Report
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8:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Boston
NY Yankees are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing Boston
Boston is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
Boston is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

MLB


Sunday, April 4

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Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees at Red Sox
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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9), 8:05 p.m. ET

The 2010 season of America’s pastime commences with one of sports’ most storied rivalries. The defending world champion New York Yankees visit fabled Fenway to face the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.

Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon may have summed up the marquee matchup best:

"Have you ever gone to watch a movie and thought, 'Man, this movie is so good, I wish it would never end.' That's like a Red Sox-Yankees game. Why would you want it to end?"

So we meet again

This game marks the 30th time these two teams have faced each other on the first day of the MLB season. The Yankees hold an 18-10-1 advantage in those games and have won the last two in the series, played in 2005 and 1992 in New York.

Weather or not

Both teams were stationed in Florida for spring training where a steady dose of warm, sunny days greeted them. Adjusting to the weather of the Northeast could take the hitters and pitchers a few games.

Temperatures in Boston Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s with a minor chance of precipitation. A light wind from 7-9 mph will blow out to left-center field.

The Red Sox hosted Tampa Bay last year on Opening Day and the game saw a first pitch temperature of 45 degrees which could have contributed to it going under the posted total.

Start me up

The clubs’ two aces, Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia, will take the mound Sunday.

Sabathia didn’t have an ideal spring, recording as many earned runs as he did strikeouts (15). In his final start, Sabathia allowed five runs in 4.2 innings of work against the Braves, but he isn’t concerned as most pitchers use spring training games to work on location and mechanics.

"I'm just trying to get out and feel good," Sabathia said after Tuesday’s game. "The changeup was up, and I was just kind of all over the place with the two-seamer. It was one of those days, but I got my work in. I'll go work in the bullpen and try to get it corrected before Sunday."

Sabathia got tagged for six earned runs in the Yankees opener last season – a 10-5 loss at Baltimore. The big southpaw started the 2008 campaign for Cleveland and was lit up for five runs in 5.1 innings of work.

Beckett ended his spring session on a high note after allowing two earned runs with eight strikeouts in six innings against Tampa Bay Monday.

"I think he feels good about himself," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "He should. He's strong. He looks ready to go."

Beckett earned the opening start for Boston last season and defeated the Rays 5-3 after giving up two hits and one earned run in seven innings on the mound (10 Ks).

Last year, Sabathia went 3-1 in four starts against the BoSox, boasting a 2.22 ERA and a .172 opponent batting average. Beckett didn’t fare so well versus the Yanks, going 2-1 in five starts with a 5.34 ERA.

Three of Sabathia’s four starts against Boston last year went under the posted total. The game that went over was the head-to-head matchup against Beckett when the Bronx Bombers roughed up Boston’s righty for eight earned runs and five home runs in eight innings.

Acquired taste

The Red Sox bolstered their defense and pitching this offseason.

John Lackey was added to the rotation but three new starters will take the field Sunday with Adrian Beltre managing the hot corner, Marco Scutaro at shortstop and Mike Cameron roaming center field.

"A lot of talk has been centered on our offense last year and how to fix our offense," Boston general manager Theo Epstein said. "But lost in that mix is that our run prevention needs some improvement as well. We were one of the worst defensive clubs in baseball last year."

The Sox might have lost a little punch in the batting order after Jason Bay left for the Mets as a free agent, but a lineup that features a .282 and 60 RBI guy in Scutaro in the nine hole is still daunting to any opposing pitcher.

New York’s prized offseason acquisition was outfielder Curtis Granderson. The former Tiger will be hitting seventh in the Yankees lineup after normally batting leadoff or in the No. 2 spot in Detroit.

It will be interesting to see if journeyman Nick Johnson can hold down the two hole in the order behind Derek Jeter. Johnson is the quintessential contact hitter, but has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.

Big Poopi

Amid the admission of testing positive for steroids in 2003, David Ortiz had a forgetful 2009 season.

Big Papi posted a paltry .187 batting average with one homerun and 18 RBIs during the first two months of the year. He rebounded to save some face in June with a .320 average, but the season-ending totals of 28 HRs, 99 RBIs and a .238 average were not what Red Sox Nation had grown accustomed to.

Through Friday’s spring games, Ortiz was hitting .233 with three homers and eight RBIs in 60 at-bats.

"I've seen good signs from David all spring; I know the numbers don't show that,” Boston hitting coach Dave Magadan said.

Trendy solutions

- Boston and New York split their 18 meetings in 2009. However, the Red Sox have gone just 1-9 in the last 10 games. .

- The Red Sox were 7-2 versus New York at Fenway last season.

- The over/under was 8-8-2 in this series last year.

MLB


Sunday, April 4

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MLB Opening Day betting trends
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Opening Day is the only day of the season where every team starts out even in the standings. Every team, yes even the Royals and Pirates, believes it has a shot at the postseason and is eager to prove it.

Does that mean some teams perform better than others on this special day?

Maybe.

Here’s a look at some of the more interesting Opening Day trends.

Road regulars

Normally the Pittsburgh Pirates open on the road, a tradition dating back to their home field of more than 100 years ago, Exposition Park, would often flood in April. The Pirates opened on the road every year from 1894-53.

This year marks the first season since 2005 the Bucs have opened at home, and just the 22nd time since 1954. The Pirates are 10-11 opening at home since then, and have lost the four of their last five and eight of their last 11 season openers at home dating back to 1979.

Meet your Mets

The Mets are 31-9 on opening day since 1970. They’ve also hold the longest current opening day winning streak (four in a row).

Good things come in four

Four teams have won more than 60 percent of their home openers historically- Toronto (75.7 percent), the Yankees (66 percent), Seattle (63.6) and the Mets (60.4).

Cin City

While Cincinnati has traditionally opened the baseball season, the Reds are only 52-56-1 historically in their home openers and have lost three of their last four.

More trends

-The Rays have lost eight of their last nine road openers.

-Barack Obama will throw out the first pitch at the Nationals’ opener against the Phillies. Home teams are 6-3 the last nine times the President has thrown out the first pitch, dating back to Bill Clinton christening Jacobs Field in Cleveland in 1994.

-The Athletics sport the longest opening day losing streak in the majors, five games (2005-09) while the Phillies hold the longest opening day losing streak in the National League, four games (2006-09)

Opening day starters

-CC Sabathia is mediocre at best on opening day- 1-1, 5.34 ERA lifetime in six opening day starts. He faces Boston’s Josh Beckett in the April 4 opener at Fenway Park. Beckett is 2-1 lifetime on opening day with a 1.59 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings pitched.

-Derek Lowe threw a two-hitter through eight innings last year in a 4-1 win against the Phillies for his first opening day victory. But lifetime he is 1-4 with a 5.33 ERA on opening day.

MLB


Sunday, April 4

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Best and worst MLB pitchers to bet on
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Baseball begins this week and below is a list of play-on and play-against pitchers for the 2010 MLB season.

Five pitchers to back:

Wade Davis (Tampa Bay Rays)

This fifth starter made six starts last year for the Rays, going 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA on the season. Davis started his career giving up one run on three hits against the Tigers in seven innings of work last September. While he did struggle against the Red Sox in his next start, Davis gave up just six earned runs in his last four starts of the season against the likes of Baltimore, Seattle and the Yankees. It should be noted that Davis has an 8.80 ERA in spring training but he’s been tinkering with new pitches.

Brian Matusz (Baltimore Orioles)

The bandwagon is full for this tall left hander as a good spring training has backed a nice finish to his 2009 season. Matusz is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA in five outings this spring striking out 19 while walking only three batters.

Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)

This phenom’s career couldn’t be more helter-skelter. Bailey spent 2007 and 2008 getting smacked around going 4-8 in 17 games over those two seasons. Last year, he improved a bit going 8-5 with a 4.53 ERA. Bailey has made three outings this spring giving up just four runs in 11.2 innings pitched. While his strikeout numbers aren’t very gaudy (3), he seems to have fixed his walk problem that plagued him earlier in his career.

Ricky Nolasco (Florida Marlins)

Nolasco spent some time in the minors last season and it seemed to clear his head. While the 5.06 ERA last season is unsightly, he still managed to go 13-9 striking out 195 while walking only 44. This spring, Nolasco is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five starts striking out 21 while walking only one batter. Ricky seems to be in midseason form already.

Luke Hochevar (Kansas City Royals)

Much like Homer Bailey, Hochevar has been inconsistent throughout his career. The right hander is 13-26 with a 5.88 ERA in 51 starts over his career. Still Luke has shown flashes of brilliance. He’s 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in four starts this spring. This is purely a speculative play as I feel that the Royals will be a team on the rise and for that to happen, Luke will have to lead the charge.

Four pitchers to fade:

Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)

While we don’t like telling people to fade the Phillies at any time, this left hander’s inconsistency presents opportunities to jump on a juicy runline. Hamels is a Top-5 pitcher when he wants to be. The lefty went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA last year allowing batters to hit .273 against him. This spring hasn’t been much better as he’s gone 1-1 with a 5.57 ERA over five starts. Hamels has given up 11 runs in 10.1 innings of work his last two outings and pitchers are supposed to improve instead of regress the closer the season comes.

Cliff Lee (Seattle Mariners)

Of course the injury helps us here, but I feel like even when he gets healthy, the left hander will be fade material. Lee expressed dismay at his trade from Philly to Seattle and has already been suspended once during spring training. In two starts, Lee has given up 11 hits and five runs during 5.2 innings of work. Lee’s move back to the American League could be a struggle this season. I feel like the Mariners may not live up to expectations.

Vicente Padilla (Los Angeles Dodgers)

The Dodgers named this right hander as their opening day starter and I’m not quite sure why. Seven months ago, this head case was released by a pitching starved Ranger team and went to L.A. where he experienced some success. Padilla’s been tattooed a bit during the spring giving up 19 hits and 10 runs in 14.1 innings of work as hitters are ringing him up to a tune of .306 BAA. I just don’t feel safe backing him in games where he will be pitted against other aces.

Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)

Guthrie had one of the worst seasons of his short career last year going 10-17 with a 5.04 ERA. The right hander hasn’t been much better during the spring giving up 19 runs and 28 hits in 20.2 innings of work. Not only that, the righty has walked 13 batters as well.

MLB


Sunday, April 4

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This Day in Baseball
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On April 4 in Baseball History...

1911 - The idea of selecting a Most Valuable Player is introduced. Hugh Chalmers, the automaker, offers a new car to the player in each league chosen M.V.P. by a committee of baseball writers.

1974 - In his first swing of the season, Hank Aaron hits a three-run home run off Jack Billingham as the Braves lose to the Reds, 7-6. It is home run 714 for Aaron, tying him with Babe Ruth's career total.

1988 - The Mets set an Opening Day record with six home runs in a 10-6 win over the Expos. Darryl Strawberry and Kevin McReynolds each connect twice for New York, with Strawberry's second blast (estimated at 525 feet) believed to be the longest ever hit at Olympic Stadium.

1989 - Forty-five-year-old Tommy John starts for the Yankees on Opening Day and sets a modern major league record by appearing in his 26th season (a mark Nolan Ryan later surpasses). John also wins his 287th game, 4-2 over the Twins.

1994 - Cubs outfielder Karl Rhodes, who hit three home runs in all of 1993, wallops three home runs off Mets starter Dwight Gooden on Opening Day at Wrigley Field. New York holds on for the 12-8 win, however.

1997 - Turner Field opens and the Braves christen it with a 5-4 come-from-behind win against the Cubs.

1998 - Mark McGwire hits a home run in his fourth consecutive game to start the season to tie the mark set by Willie Mays in 1971. McGwire's homer, which ties another league mark as his seventh in a six-game stretch (dating back to 1997), helps lead the Cardinals past the Padres, 8-6.

Great reads and write ups Cnotes. hope to see them all year long.

Baseball is the best sport to bet by far.

bol this season CN