1-0, +3.0 units
2* Mets/Marlins UNDER 7 +108
Josh Johnson is a top 5 pitcher in the Big Leagues and I would typically bet on him in almost any scenario where he is getting even money or underdog money but this one. Johan Santana is a Marlin-killer for starters. And when it is early in the season, and his arm is live, it makes his changeup that much nastier. When you get into the later parts of the season, when his arm starts to deaden up, his changeup is not as effective of an out pitch. Johan has always been a better pitcher before the all-star break for this reason. And he flat out dominated the Marlins last year more than any other team as the Marlins hit a .154 as a team against Santana. On paper, the Marlins have a right-handed hitting lineup (only Coughlan hits left-handed), and that should be an advantage for the Fish. But Johan is a changeup pitcher, and changeups are most effective against opposite batters - aka LH changeup pitchers do well against righties as the changeup sinks down and away from the right handed batter. That is part of the reason why Santana has been so effective vs. the RH hitting Marlins. With Santana making his home opening start and the young Marlin lineup opening up on the road vs. a great pitcher, this should be tough sledding for the Marlins to score runs here.
Josh Johnson, as I mentioned, is a top 5 arm in the game. If he played in any city that cared about baseball, he'd be a God. This guy will run it up to 97-98mph, and he will sit at those velocities well into the 8th and 9th innings of games. In the early part of the season when he is fresh, he will have a very live arm today and he will overpower the Mets lineup as he has done in the past. The Mets lineup is missing key players Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, 2 speedy guys, and obviously Beltran is their pop. So Wright tries to take on Josh Johnson alone, and I don't see it happening. The Marlins have let Johnson ride early in the season before, and if he is in a duel with Santana vs. a Mets team that they constantly battle for the wild card, I think they will let him ride.
I see both teams struggling to plate runs in this game.
Under here for me.
Marlins 2
Mets 1
2* Phillies/Nats OVER 7.5 -115
Despite how good Roy Halladay has been, he has some pretty big shoes to fill in Cliff Lee's departure. Lee was the best pitcher in baseball when it seemed to matter for the Phillies. He'll make his first start in the National League on the road vs. a Nationals lineup with nothing to lose starting off their home opener. They know they are underdogs, and they will scrap, fight and claw to put runs on the board here. Nats made a few key additions that will bring some veteran leadership and help their lineup. Halladay has some pressure of trying to impress his new team, he's on the road, vs. a team he SHOULD shut down, and this sets up for some failure here and the ability for the Nats to plate a few runs. Halladay is also a complete game kind of pitcher, but I doubt the Phillies let their investment ride in this 1st game, and he should still be on pitch count here, so expect Halladay to exit by the 6th inning, giving the Nats a chance to plate some runs on the bullpen.
Lefty John Lannan starts for the Nats and he is solid. On the surface that's a great matchup for the Nats vs. the left handed hitting Phillies. We know Ryan Howard's struggles vs. lefties as well. The problem is Lannan isn't much of a strikeout guy, and he pitches to contact. And the Phillies have too much experience and too good of a lineup to think they will come out and be free swingers and get themselves out. Phillies are too good offensively.
Over here for me.
Phillies 6
Nationals 3
2* Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) -130
I really like the additions of the Mariners this year. And they have King Felix on the bump today in place of injured new ace Cliff Lee. Felix has been deadly on the road, and deadly during day games.
He faces Ben Sheets who hasn't pitched competitive baseball in almost 2 years since being out all of last year with the elbow injury. He makes his opening day start in very rare conditions:
#1 - As mentioned he hasn't pitched in a long time in a big league game.
#2 - He is making his first start in the AL, and he will find it isn't as easy as the NL.
#3 - After pitching mostly in Milwaukee, he will find it tough making the 7pm start on the west coast - (10pm eastern).
Tough scenario for Sheets to start this thing off, and I like Felix here at this price.
Mariners 7
A's 4
2* Mets/Marlins UNDER 7 +108
Josh Johnson is a top 5 pitcher in the Big Leagues and I would typically bet on him in almost any scenario where he is getting even money or underdog money but this one. Johan Santana is a Marlin-killer for starters. And when it is early in the season, and his arm is live, it makes his changeup that much nastier. When you get into the later parts of the season, when his arm starts to deaden up, his changeup is not as effective of an out pitch. Johan has always been a better pitcher before the all-star break for this reason. And he flat out dominated the Marlins last year more than any other team as the Marlins hit a .154 as a team against Santana. On paper, the Marlins have a right-handed hitting lineup (only Coughlan hits left-handed), and that should be an advantage for the Fish. But Johan is a changeup pitcher, and changeups are most effective against opposite batters - aka LH changeup pitchers do well against righties as the changeup sinks down and away from the right handed batter. That is part of the reason why Santana has been so effective vs. the RH hitting Marlins. With Santana making his home opening start and the young Marlin lineup opening up on the road vs. a great pitcher, this should be tough sledding for the Marlins to score runs here.
Josh Johnson, as I mentioned, is a top 5 arm in the game. If he played in any city that cared about baseball, he'd be a God. This guy will run it up to 97-98mph, and he will sit at those velocities well into the 8th and 9th innings of games. In the early part of the season when he is fresh, he will have a very live arm today and he will overpower the Mets lineup as he has done in the past. The Mets lineup is missing key players Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, 2 speedy guys, and obviously Beltran is their pop. So Wright tries to take on Josh Johnson alone, and I don't see it happening. The Marlins have let Johnson ride early in the season before, and if he is in a duel with Santana vs. a Mets team that they constantly battle for the wild card, I think they will let him ride.
I see both teams struggling to plate runs in this game.
Under here for me.
Marlins 2
Mets 1
2* Phillies/Nats OVER 7.5 -115
Despite how good Roy Halladay has been, he has some pretty big shoes to fill in Cliff Lee's departure. Lee was the best pitcher in baseball when it seemed to matter for the Phillies. He'll make his first start in the National League on the road vs. a Nationals lineup with nothing to lose starting off their home opener. They know they are underdogs, and they will scrap, fight and claw to put runs on the board here. Nats made a few key additions that will bring some veteran leadership and help their lineup. Halladay has some pressure of trying to impress his new team, he's on the road, vs. a team he SHOULD shut down, and this sets up for some failure here and the ability for the Nats to plate a few runs. Halladay is also a complete game kind of pitcher, but I doubt the Phillies let their investment ride in this 1st game, and he should still be on pitch count here, so expect Halladay to exit by the 6th inning, giving the Nats a chance to plate some runs on the bullpen.
Lefty John Lannan starts for the Nats and he is solid. On the surface that's a great matchup for the Nats vs. the left handed hitting Phillies. We know Ryan Howard's struggles vs. lefties as well. The problem is Lannan isn't much of a strikeout guy, and he pitches to contact. And the Phillies have too much experience and too good of a lineup to think they will come out and be free swingers and get themselves out. Phillies are too good offensively.
Over here for me.
Phillies 6
Nationals 3
2* Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) -130
I really like the additions of the Mariners this year. And they have King Felix on the bump today in place of injured new ace Cliff Lee. Felix has been deadly on the road, and deadly during day games.
He faces Ben Sheets who hasn't pitched competitive baseball in almost 2 years since being out all of last year with the elbow injury. He makes his opening day start in very rare conditions:
#1 - As mentioned he hasn't pitched in a long time in a big league game.
#2 - He is making his first start in the AL, and he will find it isn't as easy as the NL.
#3 - After pitching mostly in Milwaukee, he will find it tough making the 7pm start on the west coast - (10pm eastern).
Tough scenario for Sheets to start this thing off, and I like Felix here at this price.
Mariners 7
A's 4
