All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.33 over TEXAS (2:00 PM EST) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>This is without doubt one of the biggest overlays on the board today and for the first month of the year the Blue Jays will likely offer up a ton of value. Here’s a team that won just 75 games a year ago and subsequently lost Roy Halliday to the Phillies. The American public figures this team to be a complete disaster this year when in fact, that’s not even close. Shaun Marcum gets the call for the Jays and in case you forgot, Marcum was absolutely dominating a couple years ago before he was injured and the reports are that he looks just as good this time around. In ’08, Marcum went through a stretch that saw him take a shutout into the seventh inning in 14 of 17 starts. He’s wickedly good and the Jays pen is very solid too. Offensively, this edition of the Jays has all the potential in the world and could score a ton. No way does Vernon Wells repeat that awful season he had a year ago. Scott Feldman won 17 games a year ago and that’s wonderful. However, it’s likely going to be the last time he comes close to that number because he’s a very average pitcher with average stuff. He’s also a slow starter and in fact, over the last three years his ERA in April is 6.57, which has been his worst month every year. It doesn’t come any sweeter today than Marcum and the Jays plus a price. Play Toronto +1.33 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Florida +1.05 over NY METS (1st 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Game goes off at 1:10 PM EST. Not a lot has changed in terms of personnel for both these teams. The Mets went after a bunch of free agents but nobody was biting other than Jason Bay and he’s definitely a key addition but it ends there. The Mets finished 70-92 and had a slew of injuries, thus, with Bay and a healthy supporting cast that includes David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, the Mets should win a lot more games. However, Beltran and Reyes start the year on the rack, as does Daniel Murphy. The pitching was ripped apart in the spring and that’s when facing a lot of potential major leaguers and a slew of minor leaguers. Johan Santana is a year older and he was one of those pitchers that got lit up this spring. Santana went 0-2 in the preseason with a 6.75 ERA after allowing an alarming 26 hits in 14 frames. Meanwhile, the Marlins finished second last year in the NL East and they have a true ace in today’s starter, Josh Johnson. Johnson went 7-1 in 14 starts in 2008 in his return from Tommy John surgery then posted a 15-5 mark and 3.23 earned run average in 33 starts a season ago. The guy is the straight goods, period. So, this choice is predicated on today’s starters and thus, the five-inning wager. Play Florida in the first five innings +1.05 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Colorado +1.14 over MILWAUKEE (2:10 PM EST)http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Brewers lost a lot of talent over the past couple of years and will rely on some potential and some vets to make up for it. 39-year old Greg Zaun will be the everyday catcher. They lost Mike Cameron to the Red Sox and J.J. Hardy was traded to the Twinkies. Every team has talent and the Brewers are no exception but there are a lot of question marks too and they still strikeout way too often. Yovani Gallardo had a rough home opener a year ago when he allowed seven runs, two jacks and four walks in five frames against the Reds. Gallardo is a great pitcher but his spring was average and his first home start last year was a disaster. Ubaldo Jimenez on the other hand had a terrific spring, going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA. In his career against the Brew Crew, Jimenez has thrown 13 innings, allowed eight hits, struck out 13 and he also has a BAA of just .182. The Rockies got rid of a lot of dead weight in the offseason and while they didn’t add much other than some depth (OF Jay Payton, 3B Melvin Mora, C Miguel Olivo, RHP Tim Redding, C Paul Lo Duca what they did do was allow some guys like Ian Stewart, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler to play every day. Love Ubalso Jimenez and he and the Rocks get the call here. Play: Colorado +1.14 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>ARIZONA –1½ +1.33 over San Diego (5:10 PM EST) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Padres are the most flawed team in the league and will lose more games than anyone else; that you can bet on. They lost 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, OF Brian Giles and C Henry Blanco. They have one legit star in the line-up in 1B Adrian Gonzalez and he’s not going to get a lot of good pitches to hit. This is a team made up of castoffs and rejects that include David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston Jr., Matt Stairs and today’s starter Jon Garland. That’s right, Jon Garland is the team’s ace and after 10 years in the bigs, Garland’s career ERA is 4.42. When pitching in a hitter’s park like he will today, he’s a big inning waiting to happen. Last year at this park, pitching for Arizona, Garland allowed 110 hits in 98 frames to go along with a BAA of .295. Garland went 1-1 in the spring with a 5.60 ERA. Dan Haren is another one of those true aces and he might strike out 15 today. In 24 spring innings he walked five and struck out 22. The D-Backs are young and they’re talented and could very well contend for the division. This is the biggest mismatch of the day in terms of talent and starters and the Snakes should absolutely run away and hide in this one. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
