I really dont trust tampa bay usually because of a lack of a closer but they added soriano, anytime you can fade baltimore you should do it. I see nothing they did in the offseason to make me believe they really have any hope of ending up in that division anywhere but the cellar.
tejada is great but roberts may still be hurt, I wish tampa bay were not starting with shields though, was very unimpressed last year with him and millwood can be dominant at times.
sometime soon these heavy favorites will start losing,laying -170 and up is a catastrophic strategy in the long run in baseball,just not today on opening day.
tejada is great but roberts may still be hurt, I wish tampa bay were not starting with shields though, was very unimpressed last year with him and millwood can be dominant at times.
sometime soon these heavy favorites will start losing,laying -170 and up is a catastrophic strategy in the long run in baseball,just not today on opening day.
One thing I don't do is bet the home team -1.5 though, brother. The reason for this is because over time it is not as profitable. Yes there are great situations for it, but the home team often times does not play the bottom of the 9th. What I mean by this is that if they lead by only one run going into the 9th inning and the visitors do not score in the top of the 9th, game over .. if they lead by more than one run going into the 9th and the visitors make it a one run game, but do not tie it up .. game over .. if it is tied going into the bottom of the 9th, or if the visiting team is winning, than as soon as the home team is up by one run .. game over (unless they hit a multiple run, homerun in the bottom of the 9th). This extra 0.5 inning can make a big difference in the long run, as the visiting team can pile up runs in the 9th inning if given the opportunity. Yes the game is almost always decided before the 9th inning, but the proof is in the pudding.
From 2002 through to the end of the 2009 season these are the stats:
The visiting team has won 45.3% of the games by one run or more.
The visiting team has won 34.6% of the games by two runs or more.
The home team has won 54.7% of the games by one run or more.
The home team has won 37.6% of the games by two runs or more.
THIS MEANS THAT:
76.5% OF THE TIME WHEN THE VISITING TEAM WINS .. THEY WIN BY 2 RUNS OR MORE.
68.7% OF THE TIME WHEN THE HOME TEAM WINS .. THEY WIN BY 2 RUNS OR MORE.
That extra half inning is the difference over the long run. Now when the visiting team is a favorite of -120 or higher, they win by 2+ runs 83.5% of the time, when winning the game.
IF YOU SUBTRACT THE NUMBERS FROM 200% AND DIVIDE BY TWO:
27.4% OF ALL MLB GAMES FROM 2002 - 2009 WERE DECIDED BY ONLY ONE RUN, WHILE 72.6% OF THE TIME, THE TEAM WHO WINS .. WINS BY 2+ RUNS.
I RELEASED THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 (-120) TODAY, WH0 WON 11-1, AND IF I WERE TO PLAY THEM ON THE MONEYLINE IT THE VIG WOULD HAVE BEEN -200. *THERE ARE DEFINITELY TIMES WHEN THE -1.5 PRESENTS VALUE, AND SITUATIONS LIKE THE PHILLIES ON MONDAY WERE ONE OF THEM.
I hope this helps .. as for play of the day today, if vig doesn't matter: I reccommend the Milwaukee Brewers (though I will not bet them as I do not wager on teams with juice higher than -130).
Good luck today everybody.
Something I used to do when I was younger, with success was find road favorites .. then decide who I liked to win and either parlay the road team -1.5 and the over or parlay the home team ML and the under. Sometimes I would parlay both, as the -1.5 often times would be +vig while the home team ML is also +vig.
When the home team wins more times than not the game goes under and when the visiting team wins by 2+ more times than not it goes Over. Not something I would do now, and not something I have tracked recently .. but food for thought.
BOL
PV
When the home team wins more times than not the game goes under and when the visiting team wins by 2+ more times than not it goes Over. Not something I would do now, and not something I have tracked recently .. but food for thought.
BOL
PV
Good info guys I just don't like betting the run line too many bad beats and like pv said betting the home team rl is even worse. I see this bet almost like a parlay, there r good prices on these bets with good pay outs because of those bad beat 9th inning losses. U guys do bring up valid points but betting the first inning is not a smart decision in my opinion. Look at yestedays games, I would have said no run in the kc det game and s run scores. Errors, home runs, and bad defense can kill u on these bets. Most ppl just take into count the pitchers and if there are 2 aces pound no run! This is when it Is a sucker bet IMO. Heavy juice usually and these pitchers are pitching agaist the speed, better averages, and power if a runner can reach base. Anyone cam hit a homerun in this league with a mistake pitch in the opening inning. I am just speaking from experience, if u like this bet, good luck and I'll be rooting for u, just sharing from my experience. I appreciate the info guys and I respect u pv and good word, great cappers. I want everyone on here to make money, and in no way am I trying to be crude saying it's s sucker bet! Great thread guys posts those POD's
I still have a very hard time backing Wandy, since I used to fade him religiously a few years ago. I don't like betting on Houston either .. just something about them, can never get a good read on them. Never been a fan on betting National League teams on the road .. they never seem to get enough run production, thus Houston looks like a good value bet.
As for 1st inning bets .. I have never placed one myself, but I could see where there is value .. especially in games that involve Seattle. Seattle has a very solid 1-2 that can get on base quick, and can get into scoring position with their speed early .. to give them a good chance to score in the 1st inning of almost every game. Not enough to bet the over, however. I would never bet the under in the 1st inning, like you said .. you just never know.
Those wagers to me, are just MLB props .. comparable to NFL props like will there be points in the first 7 minutes of an NFL game. Really should only be touched if you think you found something worth betting and it is just for entertainment purposes.
GL with your P.O.D's guys.
