MLB 4/6 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 6, 2010

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Plays
Upper Medium
Brewers -155
I got in last night at -137. Still some value left, but here is another example that shows evidence of a large disconnect between the pricing of times when comparing oddsmakers and market participants. This is the second straight game in which I deem the Rockies overvalued. This is somewhat surprising since I deemed them undervalued on the season win totals line. But right now, they are being backed by many, which means I will go the other way. Wolf should have a drop off year compared to last years surprising productivity. However, he dominated the Rockies last year and his style fundamentally matches up well against them. Expect Wolf to keep their young lineup off balance. The Rockies match up better against power pitchers, and not savvy veterans that can take advantage of their propensity to be over aggressive at the plate. Smith didn’t pitch at all in the majors last year, and was far from impressive in the minors. Being a flyball pitcher, this is not an ideal park or lineup to face. Yesterday I mentioned the Rockies vulnerability in their bullpen due to a couple of injuries. This vulnerability was nearly exposed but bailed out by good defense. Nonetheless, Morales, as expected, does not look like closer material.
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Red Sox -136
Here you are getting Lester cheap, which was a really rare occurrence last year. Is the market betting against the Yankees losing twice in a row or are the bullish on Burnett? I am not quite sure, but I don’t see any edge here to keep this line down where it is. Burnett was dominated by the Red Sox last year, allowing nearly a run an inning in over 20 innings pitched. He also struggled more than usual on the road. He does not fundamentally match up well against the Red Sox. They are one of the more patient lineups in the league, and Burnett is one of the more dependent pitchers on getting hitters to go out of the zone. Lester was one of the best pitchers in the league last year. He also faired better against the opposing lineup compared to Burnett. His 4.5 ERA against the Yankees last year is a bit misleading, as 3 of his four starts against them were quality ones.

Stabler12 · Apr 6, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG. I am considering the RL on TB to compensate for the loss of reasonable numbers. I was watching the hoops last night when the line started to move, but I did see your mention of that potential. :toast:

buffettgambler · Apr 6, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Thanks and GL, BG. I am considering the RL on TB to compensate for the loss of reasonable numbers. I was watching the hoops last night when the line started to move, but I did see your mention of that potential. :toast:

Munson,
Not sure how entering a position on the RL is a form of compensation for the recent move. In fact, the RL price percentage change is the same as the ML's. A common misconception is that people are reducing the vig when using the RL in place of a big favorite ML, when in most cases (such as this) it is the contrary. Don't mistake payouts structure and vigorous, and all you are doing there is reducing the payout structure (which is also disadvantageous to bankroll growth when all else is equal).

Great game last night. Best of luck today.

ZJP6050 · Apr 6, 2010

like the brewers myself. gl

gynecologist · Apr 6, 2010

Everyone is on the Red Sox it seems. GL

Stabler12 · Apr 6, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Munson,
Not sure how entering a position on the RL is a form of compensation for the recent move. In fact, the RL price percentage change is the same as the ML's. A common misconception is that people are reducing the vig when using the RL in place of a big favorite ML, when in most cases (such as this) it is the contrary. Don't mistake payouts structure and vigorous, and all you are doing there is reducing the payout structure (which is also disadvantageous to bankroll growth when all else is equal).

Great game last night. Best of luck today.

I know that's true, it's just me trying not to miss the play, I suppose. I know the stats for a home team winning by exactly one run, but in a potentially high-scoring game, I was looking to squeeze the play in there. Like forcing a shot in hoops, I guess. Thanks for the advice, I needed that.

hno:

Rip007 · Apr 6, 2010

Is there anyway to tell headfakes on lines ir they are not public plays ??????

TheHungerForMore · Apr 6, 2010

Thanks again for the heads up on the Rays yesterday. I also took the Brewers got them at -145. What's your recommendation on having the Rays -155 (Large) and O's being +214 right now. I was never really good at this backing buy stuff, but i know its important.

buffettgambler · Apr 6, 2010

Rip007 said:
Is there anyway to tell headfakes on lines ir they are not public plays ??????

To the extent where you can spot EV lines more times than not in baseball? Probably not. Less head fakes in the baseball market compared to other sports.

By the way, I got your PM yesterday but could not respond. I don't think you accept PM's.

buffettgambler · Apr 6, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Thanks again for the heads up on the Rays yesterday. I also took the Brewers got them at -145. What's your recommendation on having the Rays -155 (Large) and O's being +214 right now. I was never really good at this backing buy stuff, but i know its important.

The appropriate hedging strategy would be dependent on your risks/objectives and whether you abide by a form of kelly (logarithmic utility). If you are a form of a Kelly better, your original intrinsic value, current intrinsic value, and kelly ratio would all be needed. Aggressive EV players looking to maximize growth rate would leave the original EV bet unhedged.

luder · Apr 6, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Thanks and GL, BG. I am considering the RL on TB to compensate for the loss of reasonable numbers. I was watching the hoops last night when the line started to move, but I did see your mention of that potential. :toast:

If you must bet the game, I would suggest betting on the runline and the moneyline or find a book that offers -1 lines. If you bet both on matchbook right now, you can get Tampa Bay -1 at -152.

Good luck today BG!

luder · Apr 6, 2010

In case anyone needs it.

Formula-1.xls

TheHungerForMore · Apr 6, 2010

buffettgambler said:
The appropriate hedging strategy would be dependent on your risks/objectives and whether you abide by a form of kelly (logarithmic utility). If you are a form of a Kelly better, your original intrinsic value, current intrinsic value, and kelly ratio would all be needed. Aggressive EV players looking to maximize growth rate would leave the original EV bet unhedged.

I'm going to keep it un-hedged.

Looking at the openings for tomorrow.

Tigers are undervalued. I know about Tigers last season road disparity from away/home, but My validation on Max Scherizer, I'm pretty high on him.

Hoping the Market moves the Marlins line a little down, I'm not sold on Mets line up its very weak.

Indians I'm looking into this one +150 looks a little too much.

Rip007 · Apr 6, 2010

Thanks...and for letting me know about the pms...thought i had that straightened out

Soriano12 · Apr 6, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
I'm going to keep it un-hedged.

Looking at the openings for tomorrow.

So far I like COL tomorrow and the Under @CHW: Cook has very good numbers vs MIL while Davis got rocked by COL last year, so just waiting if the line on COL keeps rising and probably will take them 1st 5 inn to eliminate their bullpen out of my wager...
Carmona looks like he gained back his old form and even had good numbers against CHW when he sucked badly last two yrs, Peavy should also pitch a good game against that CLE lineup, that's not really familiar with him and his stuff...but again waiting to pull the trigger because of the Indians bullpen...

buffettgambler · Apr 6, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
I'm going to keep it un-hedged.

Looking at the openings for tomorrow.

Tigers are undervalued. I know about Tigers last season road disparity from away/home, but My validation on Max Scherizer, I'm pretty high on him.

Hoping the Market moves the Marlins line a little down, I'm not sold on Mets line up its very weak.

Indians I'm looking into this one +150 looks a little too much.

Lines look pretty tight tomorrow. I don't see any value on the Tigers, and think the opening line was more accurate than the current one.

Slight value on the Marlins right now, and I am hoping the market bids their price down like they did yesterday.

The most undervalued team on the opening line was the A's. The market is picking off the their value early. The team in which the market is opening up more value on compared to the open is the Padres.

It looks like the oddsmakers wised up with the line they put on Garza. That said, the market still says they are underestimating the Rays value, as they are pouncing on the open yet again.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 6, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Lines look pretty tight tomorrow. I don't see any value on the Tigers, and think the opening line was more accurate than the current one.

Slight value on the Marlins right now, and I am hoping the market bids their price down like they did yesterday.

The most undervalued team on the opening line was the A's. The market is picking off the their value early. The team in which the market is opening up more value on compared to the open is the Padres.

It looks like the oddsmakers wised up with the line they put on Garza. That said, the market still says they are underestimating the Rays value, as they are pouncing on the open yet again.

What was the open on Duchscherer and the A's?

Yeah, like i said i have standards for Max right now especially in the pitching match-up which is the main reason why i see some value on the Tigers. They'll moved up 6 cent.

I was surprised when I've seen the Rays line I figured Rays would be -180-185 no vig. Might have to make a small play on the O's if they reach +210 ish

TheHungerForMore · Apr 6, 2010

Soriano12 said:
So far I like COL tomorrow and the Under @CHW: Cook has very good numbers vs MIL while Davis got rocked by COL last year, so just waiting if the line on COL keeps rising and probably will take them 1st 5 inn to eliminate their bullpen out of my wager...
Carmona looks like he gained back his old form and even had good numbers against CHW when he sucked badly last two yrs, Peavy should also pitch a good game against that CLE lineup, that's not really familiar with him and his stuff...but again waiting to pull the trigger because of the Indians bullpen...

White Sox line is gaining steam right now.

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