Just can't lay that much of juice on an old fighter who hasn't evolved. He should win and maybe even make it look easy. But when fighters get to this stage you just can't expect anything in the fight, because you never know.
I hate....hate....hate Matt Hughes and the way he fights. I don't mind seeing groundwork at all but he is so damn boring. With that being said. Yes he has a good shot at winning this fight. He has had some time off and that should help him.
Renzo is probably about the only fighter in the division Hughes shouldn't be afraid standing with at the point of Hughes's career . If Hughes feels like he can win the fight on the feet this wont go to the ground and if he takes Renzo down I don't see Renzo having many openings to grab a submission from the bottom . Hughes has one of the best top control's in the game and if he smells danger he will just lay there on top of Renzo , judges rarely make him stand up when he is on top so I could see him riding almost whole rounds on top .
I think best option here is Hughes wins by 3 round decision + 220 and maybe even a small insurance on Gracie wins inside distance + 651 .
Thanks for your thoughts everyone.....I agree completely, he is getting old, and I just can't lay the juice....A 3 round decision might be the bet....I am somewhat concerned with a tapout, but it should go the full 3....