MLB 4/7 Plays

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font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> Here are currently my three largest plays for today.
<o:p> </o:p>
Large
Braves -148
At the beginning of the season I entered a position on the Braves Over season win total and an Under on the Cubs. I am not surprised to see value on the Braves during these teams first two meetings. But I am a bit surprised to see this much. As mentioned on opening day, the Cubs lineup is overrated and average, while their bullpen is one of the worst in the league. I am also expecting a slight decrease in production from Dempster this year as he is getting up in age and now has put forth back to back 200 plus inning seasons. Dempster does not match up well against this Braves lineup, as he has never been effective pitching to left handed hitters. The Braves will throw five such hitters at him today, none of which are slouches. Jurjens is quietly becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he has not hit his prime years yet. He really beats up right handers, which is good when facing a Cubs lineup whose talent at the plate is from the right side. The Braves have an elite bullpen, so runs will be hard to come by throughout this game for the Cubs.
<o:p> </o:p>
Upper Medium
Brewers -101
This is the third straight game in which I am backing the Brewers. The Rockies have benched half their starters this game, some of which have been hitting the ball well to start out the season. One key one being Helton, who happens to be 6 for 14 against Davis. He is being replaced by Giambi, who is only 3 for 17 against him. Mora and Olivo are also two replacements in this game, and also two hitters who have struggled against Davis in the past, coming into this game a combined 5 for 26. Davis struggled against the Rockies last year, but only faces one hitter that has given him problems. He also fundamentally matches up well against them for the same reasons Wolf did last night. Bullpen edge goes to the Brewers.
<o:p> </o:p>
A’s -121
The first two games of the series has given a glimpse to why the Mariners are one of the more underrated teams in baseball. Their lineup is well below average, and their bullpen is not terribly dependable. Take away their star pitchers, and the emperor has no cloths. Smith is decent, but his fielding independent numbers suggest he is not as good as his surface numbers would indicate. The market has never really given Duchsherer respect as a starter, and I am not sure why. The only thing they can claim against him right now is that he can not eat up innings. But that should not matter when backed by one of the better bullpens in the league. He has not had any problems with the Mariners in the past either.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
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Thanks and GL, BG. I know we've discussed this before, but the size of the bets always confuses me. Can I guess that a 'large' bet would be a 2 -unit play? The others would be 1/2 that size, or what ratio would you use?
 

New member
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Thanks and GL, BG. I know we've discussed this before, but the size of the bets always confuses me. Can I guess that a 'large' bet would be a 2 -unit play? The others would be 1/2 that size, or what ratio would you use?

My average large play is about 40% larger than an upper medium play (sometimes considerably more). My upper medium play is about 30% larger than a medium play. The smaller plays vary a lot.
 

Snake
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Messages
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Thanks for the explanation, BG. I can use that as a basis for some variable size bets.
 

New member
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"The first two games of the series has given a glimpse to why the Mariners are one of the more underrated teams in baseball. "

Did you mean overrated?

I sold back my Tigers bet after seeing the lineups.

Did you throw a small play on the O's. Sounded like you were.
 

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I forgot to add do the Twins hold value at current price? We're dealing with the two most inconsistent pitchers. Santana doesn't match-up well against the Twins line up, IMO.
 

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I forgot to add do the Twins hold value at current price? We're dealing with the two most inconsistent pitchers. Santana doesn't match-up well against the Twins line up, IMO.

Sorry for the late response.
Thanks for the correction on the Mariners. Indeed, it was meant to say they are overrated.

I did not have a position the Orioles game.

I thought the Twins line was well set. I did however have medium plays on them during the first two games.
BOL tomorrow.
 

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