Thursday Afternoon Tips
The Thursday afternoon baseball card is filled with six games for bettors to wager on, including the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Phillies all concluding their first road series. We'll take a look at those contests as well the handful of American League matchups under the sun.
Cardinals at Reds - 12:35 PM EST
Brad Penny makes his St. Louis debut at the Great American Ballpark as the Cards and Reds close out their series. Bronson Arroyo is coming off consecutive 15-win seasons, as the Cincinnati righty takes the mound for the Reds.
Arroyo was a solid 'under' pitcher last season, hitting the 'under' in 20 of 30 starts in 2009. Eight of his final nine home starts finished 'under' the total, including a 6-1 victory over the Cardinals on September 30 in which Arroyo tossed 8.1 innings of four-hit ball. Arroyo's day numbers have never been strong, as the Reds were 1-5 at home last season in matinees.
Penny split time between the Red Sox and Giants in 2009, but finished 4-1 in six starts with San Francisco. The veteran righty still has plenty of gas left in tank evidenced by five quality starts with the Giants, allowing two earned runs or less in those outings. However, in 13 road starts last season, Penny's teams went 4-9. Penny did beat three playoff teams on the highway with victories over the Angels, Twins, and Phillies.
The Cardinals and Reds split 16 meetings last season, but St. Louis captured the Opening Day contest with an 11-6 triumph. Albert Pujols provided the offensive jolt with a pair of homers, as the Cards knocked out four home runs.
Dodgers at Pirates - 12:35 PM EST
Los Angeles didn't get the season started the way it wanted to after an 11-5 loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The Dodgers send righty Chad Billingsley to the hill, trying to improve on a 12-11 mark from last season, a four win drop-off from 2008. Paul Maholm finished 2009 with single-digit victories for the second straight season, as the Pirates' lefty went 4-3 in 16 home starts.
Billingsley didn't wrap up 2009 on a strong note as the Dodgers dropped six of his final seven starts. In that span, Billingsley fell short in four of five road outings, while not lasting past the sixth inning one time. Not finding the strike zone consistently has been an issue for Billingsley, who finished fifth in the National League by issuing 86 walks last season. The good news for Billingsley is the Pirates ranked 22nd in baseball in walks, so Pittsburgh will chase plenty of pitches.
Maholm has been the model of inconsistency over his career, compiling a 17-18 mark the last two seasons. The Pittsburgh southpaw has struggled against the Dodgers in his career, beating L.A. once in six outings. Maholm put together a quality start when he faced the Dodgers last September (7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER), but the Pirates fell 8-4.
Since September 18, 2009, the Dodgers are 2-9 against left-handed starting pitchers, including Monday's loss to Zach Duke and the Pirates (0-6 on the road in this span). The Pirates finished last season at 9-15 when playing the third game of a series at home, but were just 5-14 against right-handed starters.
Phillies at Nationals - 4:35 PM EST
Philadelphia goes for the series victory over Washington, while going 16-3 the last 19 meetings in this series. The Phillies send Kyle Kendrick to the mound while young righty Craig Stammen takes the bump for Washington.
Kendrick made only two starts last season, but is getting an opportunity with Joe Blanton currently on the disabled list. The 25-year old Kendrick finished the spring strong with a 1.46 ERA in seven appearances (five starts). Facing Washington is usually a winning proposition for most pitchers and that's the case with Kendrick, who is 4-2 in six career starts. All three starts Kendrick made against the Nationals in 2008 each finished 'over' the total, but the righty lasted just four innings in two of three starts.
Washington was a profitable 5-4 last season when Stammen started at Nationals Park, including wins in the underdog role against the Giants, Marlins, and Brewers. Stammen's biggest victory came at Yankee Stadium as a $2.30 underdog, blanking the Champs, 3-0. Stammen is not afraid of facing big-time lineups, but the righty needs to pitch into the seventh inning to avoid the Washington bullpen giving up any potential lead.
The Nationals are 1-6 their last seven as a home underdog dating back to September, while being listed as a $1.50 'dog or higher five times in this span. Seven of the last eight meetings in D.C. have finished 'over' the total with seven games seeing at least double-digit runs scored.
What else to watch for:
-- C.J. Wilson makes first start for the Rangers since 2005 after predominantly being in the Texas bullpen. The southpaw opposes Toronto's Ricky Romero, who is coming off a successful 13-9 campaign, while owning an ERA of 4.30. Romero concluded last season with losses in five of his final six road starts, but began the season at 7-3. The Rangers are 5-1 the last six home meetings with the Blue Jays, while Texas has been listed as a $1.40 favorite or more each time.
-- Dontrelle Willis looks to resurrect his once-promising career when the Tigers and Royals conclude their series in Kansas City. The former Cy Young runner-up in the National League has won only one game in two seasons with Detroit since being dealt from Florida in 2008. Willis has never faced the Royals in his career, as the lefty will be opposed by Brian Bannister. Kansas City finished 5-7 in Bannister's 12 home starts last season, but the righty has beaten Detroit four of the last five outings.
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