MLB 4/8 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 8, 2010

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I may add later.
Upper Medium
Royals -114
Although the market took a good amount of value off the table for Royals backers, there is still some left in my opinion. Once again, the Tigers are coming out of the gates showing there may be a secular premium on their asking price. Willis is a huge unknown in this game, and it is probably better to ere on the side of caution and have Willis prove he can return to some form of decency before assuming he can. He pitched okay in spring training, but being that most of his problems are mental, pitching in a regular season game can disrupt any momentum he was building. He still has major control issues. This disadvantage is magnified against an anemic lineup like the Royals, as free passes is the last thing you want to give a team that struggles to produce anything on their own. The Tigers bullpen is below average, so the Royals should have scoring opportunities throughout. Bannister is also a high variance pitcher, but has more upside than Willis. He should be able to build off his past success against the Tigers, and is a pitcher harder to pick up in day games. Bannister is more dangerous against potent lineups from the left side. The Tigers are not construed as such. The Tigers match up better against pitchers dependent on the fastball. Bannister is one the of the least dependent pitchers on this pitch. Yes, he can have his every now and then blow up in this game, but there is not much evidence supporting this claim.

Stabler12 · Apr 8, 2010

Thanks and GL, BG.

zargra · Apr 8, 2010

Great stuff as usual!

bpl420 · Apr 8, 2010

Thanks bg, solid pick as usual

Stabler12 · Apr 8, 2010

Out for the day, BG, GL on the rest of your action and thanks for the rip-roaring start to the season!

buffettgambler · Apr 8, 2010

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Large
Rangers -151
I got most of my position in yesterday at the average lay of -136. I just added more to my original position due to a material upgrade from the lineup information. The Rangers now constitute a large play. I am not nearly as bullish on Romero as the market is. Although he had some nagging injuries in the second half of the season, his numbers since the break was good indication that he was significantly overachieving in the first half. Romero is not effective against left handed hitters, and his high walk rate could be a problem against the powerful Rangers lineup in a hitters park. The Blue Jays are putting forth a lot of anemic backups in today’s lineup. Huge disparity in talent in lineups in this game, which means little margin of error for Romero. It is still unknown how Wilson can handle the starting role, but compared to the other starters in the Rangers rotation, it appears to be an upgrade. The Rangers bullpen is underrated, and more importantly when Wilson is pitching, their front end of the rotation is solid.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 8, 2010

Agree with the Royals.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 8, 2010

Thoughts on tonight gamnes, mainly Min/Laa?

buffettgambler · Apr 8, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Thoughts on tonight gamnes, mainly Min/Laa?

Don't see any glaring value plays on tonight's. I have been nibbling on some teams, but nothing major.

I currently value the Angels/ Twins @ -122/+122. I was a buyer on the Twins on the open, but will be closing out most of that position before game time now that the market took the line where it is now.

Both bullpens couldn't close out the job on my posted plays today.

IrishTim · Apr 8, 2010

My model saw value on the Twins/LA under. Do you do totals, BG?

buffettgambler · Apr 8, 2010

IrishTim said:
My model saw value on the Twins/LA under. Do you do totals, BG?

Not any more.

Akillies · Apr 8, 2010

i think the royals need bullpen help. three games in and they have blown three saves.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 8, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Don't see any glaring value plays on tonight's. I have been nibbling on some teams, but nothing major.

I currently value the Angels/ Twins @ -122/+122. I was a buyer on the Twins on the open, but will be closing out most of that position before game time now that the market took the line where it is now.

Both bullpens couldn't close out the job on my posted plays today.

How many cents does a line have to be off to have on your intrinsic value to make it a medium or more play?

When a play is off by 10 cent for me on a dog i usually always play it. Most of the time with a favorite when they're in the -160 or less range.

That was bad break. Rangers bullpen surprisingly didn't close it out. Royals were in a good spot to tied it and blew it after choking up the lead. This why baseball can be such a grind at times.

What are your expectations for Joel Pineiro this season? Last season was probably his best season ever. the walk and ground ball and HRs allowed were pretty amazing. Do you see him having a tough time repeating some of that since being moved from the NL to the AL?

buffettgambler · Apr 8, 2010

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Uprade
Upper Medium
Braves -172
I was a buyer of the Braves on the overnight before the market bid them up. Was planning to sell a portion of the position, but the market beat me to it. However, with the lineup information, I have upgraded their intrinsic worth, and at the posted price, they warrant an upper medium play. The Cubs are struggling at the plate and in the bullpen. Now they go ahead and bench 3 key starters. Hanson is the real deal that poses a threat to a Cubs lineup that has a bias of talent from the right side. Hanson was one of the toughest starters in baseball last year on right handed hitters. He has 3 plus pitches (3 pitches quantitatively better than the league average effectiveness with that pitch). This bodes well early in the season when a pitcher is more prone being unable to find his pitch.
Wells, like Hanson, had a great rookie season. But there is more evidence that suggest Wells suffers a bigger drop off. Wells men LOB rate last year was well above average and lacks sustainability. His home run per fly ball rate was also abnormally low. His field independent ERA had a high disparity relative to his ERA. He also has only one plus pitch. Equally as important is what both pitchers are backed by. The Braves? An elite bullpen. The Cubs? One of the leagues worst.

HacheMan · Apr 8, 2010

GL bg

buffettgambler · Apr 8, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
How many cents does a line have to be off to have on your intrinsic value to make it a medium or more play?

When a play is off by 10 cent for me on a dog i usually always play it. Most of the time with a favorite when they're in the -160 or less range.

That was bad break. Rangers bullpen surprisingly didn't close it out. Royals were in a good spot to tied it and blew it after choking up the lead. This why baseball can be such a grind at times.

What are your expectations for Joel Pineiro this season? Last season was probably his best season ever. the walk and ground ball and HRs allowed were pretty amazing. Do you see him having a tough time repeating some of that since being moved from the NL to the AL?

Good questions.
It depends on what the odds are on the team. The bigger the favorite, the larger the risk wager will be per cent off from market value to intrinsic value. In reference to your 10 cent disparity, that would cut it (a medium play) for a large underdog, but would for a large favorite

As far as Pineiro goes, I am expecting a decent drop off from him this year, and he should probably post numbers slightly better than his career averages. I do not think that switching to the AL will be the culprit. He is a park independent pitcher, especially last year with his extremely low ground ball rate. Last year Pienero had a structural change in pitching habits from someone who pitched to contact, had a low bb rate and decent ground ball rate to a pitcher with extreme ground ball tendencies and nearly never walked a hitter he did not want. My first question is after so many years, why the change, and is this change sustainable? He started throwing his fastball much more last year, and it was used to induce the groundball. His fastball is very hittable, but his location was solid enough to prevent damage. Being that in years past his fastball was a liability despite having more velocity and movement, I think there was a lot of randomness in his results last year. The league is also more aware of this structural change in his style, which should help them counter better.

billbeater · Apr 8, 2010

too high a price for the braves too early i the season. rolled with tigers earlier and have to roll with a ton of value on the cubbies!
excellent writeup and GL!
:smoker2:

olenubbs · Apr 8, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Good questions.
It depends on what the odds are on the team. The bigger the favorite, the larger the risk wager will be per cent off from market value to intrinsic value. In reference to your 10 cent disparity, that would cut it (a medium play) for a large underdog, but would for a large favorite

As far as Pineiro goes, I am expecting a decent drop off from him this year, and he should probably post numbers slightly better than his career averages. I do not think that switching to the AL will be the culprit. He is a park independent pitcher, especially last year with his extremely low ground ball rate. Last year Pienero had a structural change in pitching habits from someone who pitched to contact, had a low bb rate and decent ground ball rate to a pitcher with extreme ground ball tendencies and nearly never walked a hitter he did not want. My first question is after so many years, why the change, and is this change sustainable? He started throwing his fastball much more last year, and it was used to induce the groundball. His fastball is very hittable, but his location was solid enough to prevent damage. Being that in years past his fastball was a liability despite having more velocity and movement, I think there was a lot of randomness in his results last year. The league is also more aware of this structural change in his style, which should help them counter better.

I have to believe Dave Duncan probably deserves most, if not all the credit for Pineiro's resurgence last season. Learning from one of the game's best pitching coaches on an everyday basis was invaluable for him. That being said, I agree that he doesn't match last year's performance. He will miss Duncan a great deal, imo.

IrishTim · Apr 9, 2010

jdwst5 said:
Lol at your systems, models, and how incorrect they are.

Great picks! lololol.

PS-Your analysis sucks.

hno:

basilesox · Apr 9, 2010

jdwst5 said:
Lol at your systems, models, and how incorrect they are.

Great picks! lololol.

PS-Your analysis sucks.

Hey I have just started reading BuffetGambler's stuff and if you think he doesn't know his shit then your crazy. Just because the guy has a bad day you go and run your mouth. Didn't see you posting anything.

Why don't you throw some analysis or some baseball knowledge around. I'll bet you your entire bankroll that if you went head to head against buffet gambler or anyone worth a salt on this board you would get bent over.