three today (Sat) w/analysis

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<table width="500" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="50%" align="left">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">2</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="20%" align="right">+5.00 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="50%" align="left">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">9</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">4</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="20%" align="right">+15.44 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="50%" align="left">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">9</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">4</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="10%" align="right">0</td> <td class="rs_value" valign="top" width="20%" align="right">+15.44 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


BALTIMORE –½ -1.02 over Toronto (1st 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
The Orioles bullpen is a complete train wreck and it’s for that reason the play here is the Orioles laying a half run in the first five frames. The Jays will send out Dana Eveland and for now he’s the team’s fifth starter. The problem, however, is that he’s really about the seventh man on the starting rotation totem poll and only injuries to other potential starters has this guy pushed up to that spot. Eveland had a good spring by walking just four guys, striking out 18 and going 0-1 with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings of work. However, he always has a good spring but completely folds once the chips are down and that’s a big problem. Last year pitching mostly in a pitcher’s park, Eveland’s ERA was 7.16 but that’s not the most alarming number. His WHIP was an off the charts at 2.18 and his BAA was .365. His career WHIP is 1.70 and his career ERA is 5.54. He’s a reliever half the time and a spot starter and the only reason he’s still around is because he’s a lefty. He’s never had success at this level in 83 major league appearances and there’s no reason to believe that’s about to change. The Jays are off to a good start but they’ve faced some bad pitchers in some favorable spots and they’ve been drawing a lot of walks, which has led to runs. Fact is, they’re hitting just .233 as a team and have a lot of flaws in the batting line-up. They’ll face David Hernandez here and the one good thing about Hernandez is that he throws strikes. He showed flashes in his rookie year and he’s coming off a strong spring in which he walked just three and struck out 20 in 15 innings. O’s have a big edge on offense and a bigger edge on the mound and thus, we’ll take the bullpen out of this equation. Play: Baltimore in the first five innings -½ -1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2). <o:p></o:p>
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Philadelphia –1½ +1.22 over HOUSTON http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
Let’s see now. The Phillies are 3-1 and the Astros are 0-4. The Phillies are batting a combined .344 and have scored 32 runs in four games while the Astros are batting .204 and have scored six runs in four games. That’s right, 0-4 with six runs scored. Now the Astros have to rely on Felipe Paulino to get them off the mattress and chances are that’s not going to work out too well. Paulino surrendered 126 hits in 97 frames last season for a BAA of .317. He went 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Aside from having awful numbers, he’s going to feel the weight of an 0-4 start for the team and when you break it down, that first win is getting harder with each passing day. Mentally, the Astros are in trouble before this one begins. The Phillies are in a great state of mind, as they’re seeing beach balls to open the year and you know for sure they’ll want to produce for Jamie Moyer. Moyer will go down as one of the best stories in baseball history and everybody not in an Astros uniform will be pulling for him and you can triple that for his teammates. He’s 47 going on 30 and seldom does he walk anyone. In fact, this past spring he walked one batter in 26.2 innings while striking out 23 and posting a 2.02 ERA. The Astros are seeing BB’s and they won’t be helped out by the walk here. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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San Diego +1.46 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o:p></o:p>
When playing on teams that find ways to lose, (like the Padres, Pirates, Nats and Indians to name a few), it’s recommended that you play them in the first five innings rather than the full game and this is a good example of that. This choice is based on the starting pitchers and thus, there’s no reason to play the full game. Matt Latos is a guy to keep your eye on. He has tremendous stuff, he had a decent 10-game test last season in which he started all 10 games and allowed just 43 hits in 50 innings. That’s some invaluable major-league experience and he’s coming off a tremendous spring in which he went 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings of work. He also struck out 14 and walked just five. The kid can pitch. Jason Hammel has never gotten off to a good April start in three years in the majors. He’s been taken deep six times in 37 April innings over his career and his ERA over that span is an unimpressive 5.66. He’s coming off a very average year and a very average spring in which his ERA was 4.66 after allowing 28 hits and 15 runs in 24 frames. Against the Padres in his career, Hammel is 0-0 in five starts with a 5.33 ERA and a BAA of .302. Play: San Diego in the first five innings +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
 

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