MLB 4/10 Plays

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Large
Braves -114
Take away the Giants top starters, and what is left is one of the worst lineups in baseball and a slightly above average bullpen. Yesterdays game took away the latter, as the Giants were forced to send all seven bullpen pitchers to the mound, four of which had to go more than an innings. Wilson was forced into 39 pitches, which means they will probably look elsewhere for a close today (if applicable). This problem created yesterday is magnified, as Wellemeyer, a converted reliever, is not built to go deep into games. He was one of the most hittable pitchers in the league last year, prone to the long ball, prone to the walk, and was dominated by left handed bats. The Braves lineup is not a good match up for them. The Giants showed once again how little margin for error they have, as they only left one runner on base yesterday in an extra inning game (as opposed to the Braves 13 LOB), and still needed extra innings to put up five runs. Lowe has always been one of the more effective pitchers from the stretch, so making the most out of their hits will not be nearly as probable this game. Lowe is also built to go deep into games, has had past success against this Giants club, and is backed by a better, more rested bullpen and much better lineup. The Braves have a nice edge in every facet of this game. Being a short favorite is a bargain in my opinion.
<o:p> </o:p>
Upper Medium
Reds -100
Going right back to betting against the Cubs at a decent size wager. They once again showed yesterday that even if they get an effective start from their starter, a win is still hard to come by as their bullpen is one the worst in baseball and their lineup is struggling at the plate right now. Getting a solid outing from their starter may also be wishful thinking in this one, as Zambrano is coming off a horrific start, and since a lot of his problems on the mound are predicated on physiological constraints, his opening day debacle may have a hangover effect. He has also proven not to be an effective bounce back starter the last couple of years, as a lot of his bad outings are followed by a sub par outing in his next start. He has always been vulnerable to the left handed bat, and as mentioned yesterday, the Reds have three plus hitters from that side. Votto, the Reds best hitter, has owned Zambrano. In 08, Harrang struggled against the Cubs. In 09, he changed things up, and had the upper hand against them. The Cubs have produced just 8 runs in their last three games, and their situation hitting has been lacking. Ramirez is one hitter with past success against Harrang. He seems lost at the plate right now. The Reds bullpen is solid, and yesterday proved they have the upper hand in a late close game. The market has dropped the line a material 18%. In my opinion, they were better off leaving it alone.
<o:p> </o:p>
Brewers -135
Here is another line that market has unwarrantedly dropped. The buyback action in indication of a potential head fake. Garcia has a lot of hype surrounding him. On paper, he looks good. He has a nasty fastball that creates the groundball, and a solid curve to compliment it. His hype may turn out to be warranted, but until he proves something in the majors, I am deeming it overhyped. He struggled a bit from the promotion to single A to AAA last year, and was prone to the long ball in both his brief stint in the majors 2 years back and AAA last year. Being an extreme groundball pitcher, their may be evidence that he is not mentally strong. His mechanics make him not built to go deep into games, and will be on a short pitch count today. So even if he is pitching well, his role will be limited. Gallardo is also a pitcher with a lot of hype, but he has backed it up 2 plus years now. When on, he can dominate any lineup, and did so against the Cardinals twice last season. He eats up right handed bats, which should be a problem for the Cards lineup. The Brewers have a top tier lineup and solid bullpen. The only thing holding them back is the depth in their rotation. This is not a problem today, as they send one of the better pitchers in baseball to the mound. They should be a larger favorite here.
<o:p> </o:p>
Astros +146
The Astros are bad. Without Berkman, they are really bad. But by opening the season with four straight losses, their deficiencies are becoming magnified. The market has bid up a road favorite 15%, a sign of market overreaction to recent form. Simply put, Moyer should not be backing this price on the road against anyone. The Phillies bullpen is also below average and lacks depth. This should allow a struggling lineup to finally get things going at the plate. I am not big on Paulino, and the Philies are not a good matchup for him, but his solid outing against them last year gives some hope. His dismal numbers last season is also a value creator, as a lot of it is deemed by back luck ,as his FIP would indicate.
<o:p> </o:p>
Marlins -137
This is the second straight start in which I have found value on Johnson and value going against Padilla. A rare occurrence when backing the much better pitcher. As mentioned last week, Padilla is a momentum pitcher. He feeds off of recent performances, which is the reason I was not surprised by his prolong hot streak late last season. Right now, he is on a downtick, which may last until he sees a soft lineup at home. Padilla has always been worse on the road and against the lineups that like power pitchers. Prone to the flyball, this is not an ideal park for him. The Dodgers bullpen injuries makes them less than ideal to back such a high variance pitcher. So does having a lineup that is forced to go up against one of MLB’s top pitchers.
<o:p> </o:p>
A’s +159
The market wants nothing to do with Sheets. They proved that on opening day with a material bump up in price on Hernandez. Now they are taking it to another level with a 25% bump up on Weaver. But they are going too far. The Angels have won just one game all season, despite already having five home games under their belt. The A’s have won all but one, a game that they should have easily won. Sheets did not look sharp in his first outing, but he is so nasty that he can still get out of self created jams. He also allowed just four hits in that game, and finished strong. He is also backed by a better bullpen than his counterparts. I have had a long position on the A’s in every one of their games thus far. I also have an Over play on their season win total. The market seems really bearish on this team, and I will continue to back them until they get their respect they deserve.
 

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Buff........

thank you..........BOL with all your action today

indy
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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BG - it kills me to go against your Reds pick today. Cubs will have Marshall today who has been their best bullpen guy. This game is on Zambrano. I wasn't going to take the Cubs, but if this guy has anything, the Cubs should win.

That A's play is interesting. Angels have looked brutal.
 

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