MLB 4/11 Plays

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Upper medium
Rays +102
It’s hard to justify Shields being an underdog against any team when pitching at home. An early season form Yankees team backed by Burnett (where he has been known to struggle more on the road) doesn’t quite cut the justification. A 25% drop in the Rays price in my opinion by the market in my opinion is a value creating move rather than an efficiency correcting move.
Burnett has had past success against the Rays. But unlike most pitchers, past success against teams lacks much sustainability as his success is predicated more on his form rather than the fundamental matchup the opposing lineup provides him. Burnett has also only had past success against just three Rays hitters, while struggling against both Crawford and Longoria. Burnett is streaky, and did not look terribly effective in his debut against Boston. The market may be shying away from Shields because of his ugly past numbers against the Yankees. But most of his struggles against them occurred three years back, and he has actually put forth 3 quality starts against them in his last four tries.
Homefield advantage is magnified. Both pitchers have materially performed better at home throughout their careers. Both teams as a whole raise their game at home. Add the divisional rivalry aspect, and homefield advantage is worth much more than the conventional 20 cents.
 

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