MLB 4/12 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 12, 2010

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Upper Medium
Rangers -122
The market has bid up the Rangers 22 percent off the open, and I don’t think they should have stopped there. No Sizemore or Marson, and a team that may have a hangover effect after yesterdays loss, which they showed a propensity of having following blown games the last couple of years. Carmona has struggled against the Rangers in the past, and rightfully so. A sinkerball pitcher with his style is vulnerable against left handed power hitters. He will face three left handed hitters. He is backed by a roughed up bullpen. Harden did not have his A game last start, but still managed to allow just one hit. He faces a depleted Indians lineup with all but one hitter not struggling at the plate. This should allow Harden to come into the strike zone more and limit his walks that plagued him. Bullpen edge goes to the Rangers.

XPike21X · Apr 12, 2010

nice right up and good luck sir

Dwight_Schrute · Apr 12, 2010

Thanks for sharing

Stabler12 · Apr 12, 2010

Missed that one, I'll try to catch you later. Thanks and GL.

buffettgambler · Apr 12, 2010

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Upper Medium
Braves -114
A drop in the market price from the open was warranted with Jones being out confirmed. But the market is going overboard here, and the Braves being tired angle simply don’t cut it. Without Jones, the Braves lineup productivity will take a hit. But how much offense will they likely need in this one. The Padres have one of the most anemic lineups in the league, struggle hitting at home, and have not looked good at the plate at all during their last four games, putting up more than three just once. Jurjens is quietly one of the best pitchers in the game, and sooner or later, trading at this price against the quality opponent he is facing today will be a distant memory. Backed by a top tier bullpen should lead to another hard day at the plate from the Padres. Corriea’s last start should be a bit concerning. Here is a guy that had one of the lowest HR per inning rate, and is his first start, he allowed three. His style also doesn’t match up well against the Braves, as he is crafty, while the Braves have an above average aggregate plate discipline. This is the only team in the NL where the Padres do not have a bullpen edge against. This coupled with the obvious hitting and starting pitching disadvantage makes this short price a bargain.
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A’s +120
In some form or another, I have backed the A’s in all but one game. Going right back at them as the market continues to call their bluff, which allows me to continue to ride their streak. Good time to back Duchsherer coming off a start where he posted ugly numbers against the same lineup. However, he looked much better than those numbers would indicate and has performed well against this lineup in the past. He also more than likely shook off some rust and nerves, being his fist major league start since 08.
Almost 17% of Smith’s career innings pitched have been against the A’s. His % of balls swung that are outside the zone is in the top 10% (about the same as Felix Hernandez), which means he is hard to pick up, and the more you know him, the better you are against him. The A’s know him better than any other team. They also were able to hit him much better last week than years past. I think his run against A’s may be coming to an end. The A’s are playing with confidence. The Mariners are not. The A’s have the bullpen edge, starter edge, and lineup disparity is minimal. Wrong team favored.