Prof. Hinsley's Thursday

Yesterday: 0-3 (-4.1 Units)
YTD: 10-11 (+.68 Units)

Wow! What a terrible day yesterday, but it's a long season and it wasn't the first and won't be the last. However, I do like a couple games today. The first one:

1* Florida Marlins (-150)
1* Florida Marlins -1.5 (+145)
(Making my own play on Marlins -1 so risking 2.5 to win 2.45)

I really like the Marlins here against a struggling Aaron Harang. Harang gets straight knocked around against these guys today. I was thinking about doing a RL on the Marlins, but chose to do this instead. I am confident in this play because I look for Johnson to bounce back after his short (5 inning) outing last time out and really take it to these guys.

Speaking of which, some "heavy hitters" from the Marlins have really been taking it to Harang over their careers (from rotowire):

Hanley Ramirez v. Aaron Harang – 8-for-21 (.381), 4 HR, 6 RBI, 1:3 BB:K (.409 OBP)
Dan Uggla v. Aaron Harang – 6-for-16 (.375), 2 HR, 6 RBI, 3:3 BB:K (.474 OBP)
Jorge Cantu v. Aaron Harang – 4-for-10 (.400), 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0:1 BB:K (.400 OBP)


And Harang vs. Florida:

Aaron Harang v. Marlins – Even though he's turned in an impressive 25:6 K:BB ratio against them, the Marlins have knocked around Harang pretty good when they've made contact. Seven of the Marlins' combined 31 hits off of him have been home runs, leading to a .945 OPS against. There's substantial risk here, particularly if the wind is blowing out in Florida on Thursday night.

Good luck with your wagers, I will probably have a play for the Cubs/brewers game later, just waiting for a run line from my local.

Good Luck.

Adding on:

1* Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+115)

I know Zambrano is a head case, I really don't like betting on him but that is why this is only a 1*. Cubs are coming off a dramitic 8th inning victory in a game they definitely should have lost. Now they have their "ace" coming to the mound who emotional and I think this plays into his favor today because of the adrenaline shot the team received yesterday.

For the Cubs, they have been producing runs finally and I see the trend continuing against Suppan. I've never been too impressed with Suppan and I think the Cubs hitters should score around 6 runs. D. Lee and Byrd have his suppan well [Lee :22-for-51 (.431), 5 HR, 8 RBI, 10:6 BB:K (.532 OBP). Byrd: 5-for-14 (.357), 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1:0 BB:K (.400 OBP)]

I like the Cubs here.

More to come...

GL Professor

Thanks Pike, you too.

Adding:

1* Colorado Rockies (-200)
1* Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+100)
(2nd of three I'm doing today so risking 3 to win 2 at Col -1)

Hawpe is not in the lineup but according to rotowire, he'll be available off the bench. This shouldn't matter much considering Hawpe is 1 for 10 lifetime against Pelfrey.

Taking De La Rosa here is pretty easy at -1 (-150) odds. I think he pitches another gem and if the Rockies can put up 4 runs, the bet is looking in pretty good shape.

Helton has smashed Pelfrey in limited appearances but is 7 for 8 against him. I think Colorado really gets it done today.

Should be the last one today:

1.5* LA Angels (+145)
0.5* Angels Alt RL -1.5 (+200)
(Risking 2 to win 3.18)


Derek Jeter v. Scott Kazmir – 4-for-36 (.111), 1 HR, 4 RBI, 3:11 BB:K (.220 OBP)
Alex Rodriguez v. Scott Kazmir – 3-for-24 (.125), 0 HR, 0 RBI, 6:7 BB:K (.300 OBP)
Nick Swisher v. Scott Kazmir – 5-for-27 (.185), 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2:6 BB:K (.241 OBP)
Robinson Cano v. Scott Kazmir – 4-for-26 (.154), 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0:9 BB:K (.154 OBP)

Kazmir and LA right the ship with another win in the Bronx. Kazmir knows these guys well and isn't intimidated by the some of the most feared bats in NY.

Good Luck.