MLB 4/15 Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

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Large
A’s -148
Although I liked the A’s much more when it was trading in the 30’s off the open, I still think there is enough value left on the table to warrant a large play. The Orioles have won 1 game all season. Although the market usually overextends the fades on teams like this, the A’s are simply not in favor with the marketplace (and oddsmakers) to trade at a premium right now. Sheets does not look sharp right now, but should slowly get better here on out. Despite allowing nearly 2 baserunners an inning, he still has been hard to score runs against. Now facing a team that has scored two or less runs in four of their last five games, Sheets has a good setup to get back into rhythm. Backed by a deep bullpen, the A’s have the leverage to pull the plug early if he continues his struggling ways.

I am not big on Hernandez. He is a flyball pitcher that walks a lot of batters. Although the A’s are not the ideal team to take advantage of the first deficiency, their patience at the plate should allow them to get some free passes. Hernandez should improved control during spring, but that went by the wayside in his first start, walking 4 batters. He is also not a good fit for the Orioles. He has average just 5 innings per game in his minor/major league games (19 pitches per inning). When backed by one of the worst pens in baseball, a bullpen that has been worked a lot and has been struggling, the Orioles will send sub par pitcher on the mound throughout. This is a recipe for disaster when combined with a struggling lineup.

im2bz4yaa · Apr 15, 2010

Good luck today

BPAPER · Apr 15, 2010

Thanks BG!

BeatDown · Apr 15, 2010

Stabler12 · Apr 15, 2010

Missed you yesterday, thanks and GL., BG. Also, I note that Baltimore played yesterday and needed to fly to the coast for this one.

TheHungerForMore · Apr 15, 2010

Stabler12 said:
Missed you yesterday, thanks and GL., BG. Also, I note that Baltimore played yesterday and needed to fly to the coast for this one.

Traveling in baseball is highly overrated, in my opinion. What you think about this BG?

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

TheHungerForMore said:
Traveling in baseball is highly overrated, in my opinion. What you think about this BG?

Define overrated.
Do you mean that the market puts a premium price on teams facing teams having to travel the day before? There is no statistical evidence to support this, and if there were, it would not last long.

Do you mean people on the forum use traveling too often for their reason? Possibly. Since there is no statistical evidence stating you should bet against teams that travel, my guess this angle should be limited.

Players often time mention that it is game 2 where they feel the effects on travel, since they usually play on adrenaline in game 1. Later in the season, traveling will takes its toll more on the players. Teams traveling coast to coast as Munson mentions is also more material. Expecting to profit from this is another story.

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

A couple of games that I think will close higher at Pinny than their current ask for Fridays games are A's -142 and Dodgers -139

im2bz4yaa · Apr 15, 2010

buffettgambler said:
A couple of games that I think will close higher at Pinny than their current ask for Fridays games are A's -142 and Dodgers -139

Thanks BG! You think you could take some time at nights and post some of these when lines open (I'm assuming that's where you can find the greatest value)?

IrishTim · Apr 15, 2010

im2bz4yaa said:
Thanks BG! You think you could take some time at nights and post some of these when lines open (I'm assuming that's where you can find the greatest value)?

The markets for tomorrow's games are already open, but they move like crazy early on. I go to put a bet on Oak/Baltimore over 7.5 and by the time I try to hit submit it's at 8.5. Stuff like that.

im2bz4yaa · Apr 15, 2010

IrishTim said:
The markets for tomorrow's games are already open, but they move like crazy early on. I go to put a bet on Oak/Baltimore over 7.5 and by the time I try to hit submit it's at 8.5. Stuff like that.

Totally not paying attention. I thought these were for tonight's games.

Which online book releases lines the earliest?

Thanks Irish.

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

im2bz4yaa said:
Thanks BG! You think you could take some time at nights and post some of these when lines open (I'm assuming that's where you can find the greatest value)?

I'll try, although I like to lock in my positions before posting.

If you are not betting overnights (or more accurately, the moment Pinny releases), you are limiting yourself greatly.

The market line approaches efficiency the closer it gets to game time. This have become more pertinent in recent years.

So far during the first two weeks of the season, the convergence between my intrinsic values and markets close relative to the open has been much higher and duration much shorter compared to recent years. This is a good sign for my model, but not a good sign in the sense the baseball market does not look terribly exploitable, especially if betting the day in which the game takes place.

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

IrishTim · Apr 15, 2010

im2bz4yaa said:
Totally not paying attention. I thought these were for tonight's games.

Which online book releases lines the earliest?

Thanks Irish.

I don't have the fortune of having a Pinnacle account so BG can tell you about them.

- Bookmaker and Greek are great because they have the earliest lines. I usually hit the next day's MLB lines at around 3-4 PM the day before.

- BetJam is probably next. I think they're worthless the rest of the year, but they post early baseball lines and outside of Pinnacle, I believe they are the first to have the next day's lines up at midday with only 10 cents of juice (i.e. -150/+140 vs. Greek's -150/+130).

- 5Dimes has low juice (I think 6 cents?) overnight but of course these lines have already been shaped by the sharps who hit the Pinnacle/Olympic/Cris openers.

- then for gameday, the best is Matchbook. You'll usually find a 1 cent line before commission (i.e. -150/+149) there by the time the markets have matured. But as BG noted, the game day markets are more efficient so it's a tradeoff.

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

IrishTim said:
I don't have the fortune of having a Pinnacle account so BG can tell you about them.

- Bookmaker and Greek are great because they have the earliest lines. I usually hit the next day's MLB lines at around 3-4 PM the day before.

- BetJam is probably next. I think they're worthless the rest of the year, but they post early baseball lines and outside of Pinnacle, I believe they are the first to have the next day's lines up at midday with only 10 cents of juice (i.e. -150/+140 vs. Greek's -150/+130).

- 5Dimes has low juice (I think 6 cents?) overnight but of course these lines have already been shaped by the sharps who hit the Pinnacle/Olympic/Cris openers.

- then for gameday, the best is Matchbook. You'll usually find a 1 cent line before commission (i.e. -150/+149) there by the time the markets have matured. But as BG noted, the game day markets are more efficient so it's a tradeoff.

Solid post. Agree Betjam would be next in line if the market lines are converging to your fair value at a rate where more material than the 5 cent overnights at 5Dimes. 5D is pretty trigger happy on lowering an already low overnight as well.

Agree with IrishTims Matchbook assessment. A must out for game day buyback trades, stat arbs, or entry positions based on lineup info or material line moves away from your intrinsic value.

im2bz4yaa · Apr 15, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Solid post. Agree Betjam would be next in line if the market lines are converging to your fair value at a rate where more material than the 5 cent overnights at 5Dimes. 5D is pretty trigger happy on lowering an already low overnight as well.

Agree with IrishTims Matchbook assessment. A must out for game day buyback trades, stat arbs, or entry positions based on lineup info or material line moves away from your intrinsic value.

Thanks guys.

I was just wondering which one book releases first...does it just depend on the day? Sounds like you guys are saying Pinnacle is "best", but are you also saying they release first?

buffettgambler · Apr 15, 2010

im2bz4yaa said:
Thanks guys.

I was just wondering which one book releases first...does it just depend on the day? Sounds like you guys are saying Pinnacle is "best", but are you also saying they release first?

Typically, The Greek, followed by bookmaker, then Pinny,

im2bz4yaa · Apr 15, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Typically, The Greek, followed by bookmaker, then Pinny,

That's what I'm looking for. Thanks and good luck tonight.

IrishTim · Apr 15, 2010

buffettgambler said:
Solid post. Agree Betjam would be next in line if the market lines are converging to your fair value at a rate where more material than the 5 cent overnights at 5Dimes. 5D is pretty trigger happy on lowering an already low overnight as well.

Agree with IrishTims Matchbook assessment. A must out for game day buyback trades, stat arbs, or entry positions based on lineup info or material line moves away from your intrinsic value.

BG's spot on re: 5Ds. I'm not that big a bettor by any means but I think 5Dimes has me with $50 limits on the overnight (reduced) lines.

I also don't see how any serious player could be without Matchbook.

re: your previous post about the market agreeing with your model, that's actually how I "backtested" my model. Not with wins/losses, but how they would have performed against the market. I threw out all the ones (and there were a lot) that didn't average a 2 cent or better advantage vs. the closing line.

Stabler12 · Apr 15, 2010

I only consider travel an issue when multiple time zones are crossed and no days off are involved. I look to see when the previous game ended and calculate when the visitor will arrive at the next destination. I think because it is a difficult thing to quantify, fatigue due to travel can be an edge for me. I can not be convinced that a team checking into a hotel in the middle of the night that has been on a plane for 6 hours is not at a disadvantage the next day/night. I have read that the first day is not too bad, but they have to be half asleep under the scenario I outlined.