MLB 4/16 Plays

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Upper Medium
Brewers -148
Lannan is a finesse pitcher highly dependent on rhythm and feel. He lacks the arm strength or movement to overcome any bouts of lack of control. Based on his first two starts, Lannan has shown evidence that he has yet to find that control, as he has become very hittable. Last year he walked a batter every three innings. So far he has walked 6 in 8 plus innings. Lannan clearly has not found his zone, which is not something you want against a potent Brewers lineup that has had past success against him. Being backed by a really bad bullpen that was overworked in their last series is also not ideal for him. The Nats may be forced into a spot where they may have to leave him out to dry.
Gallardo has also not looked sharp. However, being a power pitcher who has a high walk rate leaves me little concern about backing a pitcher out of rhythm. So does backing someone as talented as Gallardo. The Nats are experiencing an uptick at the plate. But without Zimmerman and a talented cast around him, it should be short lived. Material advantages in the starting pitcher category, lineup, bullpen, and timing favoring the road favorite.
<o:p> </o:p>
Braves -133
The Braves have become a secularly undervalued team. The Rockies have been consistently overvalued, which is a bit surprising since I found value on them with their Over win totals. The Rockies are much less potent away from home. Hammel is a finesse pitcher whose success is contingent on the opponents lineup. He struggles against left handed loaded lineups who possess patience at the plate. Facing the Braves should do him no favors. Not surprised he struggled against this team last year, facing them twice and getting roughed up both times. Lowe’s sinkerball should offset the power the Rockies bring at the plate. His experience should be advantageous against the Rockies youth and aggressiveness. He owned this team last year, and pitched well against them in 08. The Braves have a nice edge in the bullpen.
<o:p> </o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
A’s -158
The market sucked out a lot of value in this one, but still some left. The Orioles are in shambles. They are injured, struggling at the plate, and have a horrific bullpen. The A’s are clicking on all cylinders which bodes well for a team that is very streaky. Braden is the real deal and is pitching like it out of the gates. He has also had his way with the Orioles in the past. Being a flyball pitcher, he should benefit from pitching at home and against a lineup without much pop. Millwood may be just what the Orioles needed. His surface stats look fine out of the gate, but allowing 3 home runs in his last start and having a ground ball rate materially lower than his norm should be concerning. His velocity is down this year, and is resorting to the slider more. Small warning signs that may not be factored in to the market price. Backed by a horrible bullpen and a struggling lineup leaves him little margin for error.
 

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Buffettgambler, do you keep a record of some kind? Your write-ups always are good reads and I'd be curious into what results they translate.
 

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Buffettgambler, do you keep a record of some kind? Your write-ups always are good reads and I'd be curious into what results they translate.
Not trying to speak for BG, but a record is irrelevant when you realize that the games he posts are already bet at different prices. Trust me, I've read him for 3 years and he wins more than he loses.
 

Snake
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BG, I'm thinking it's coincidence, but have you noticed that the vast majority of your plays in the early season have been favorites? I know you don't go crazy about fave/dog comparisons like I do, but I was wondering if there is anything you would attribute that too, other than a small sample size?
 

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BG, I'm thinking it's coincidence, but have you noticed that the vast majority of your plays in the early season have been favorites? I know you don't go crazy about fave/dog comparisons like I do, but I was wondering if there is anything you would attribute that too, other than a small sample size?

Nope, about 55 to 60 percent of my bets are on underdogs. However, adhering to any form of Kelly will force you to risk more on favorites than underdogs. Since I only post bets that are viewed as large or upper medium on the risk size (and not win size) they are going to be skewed towards the favorites.
 

Snake
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Thanks for the explanation, I never considered you a 'chalky' player. Continued successs.:toast:
 

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how hard is it to keep a record of posted baseball plays?


just saying..

i enjoy the mans writeups but it can't be that hard to keep a record. IMHO:toast:
 

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I think I can clarify a bit on the record keeping-part, since I asked the question one of the first days of this years season.

The reaction was:

No, I don't track a posting record since it is not commensurate to my actual record. I move in and out of positions quite often, and do not post all my positions. Lastly, since forums records lack fungibility, I encourage others to track posters they wish using a consistent method that filters out posters chasing, inflated units, and other shenanigans.
 

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I can't believe guys are angry that BG won't post his record. I have been been playin the games for 20yrs and the best run I have ever seen was BG plays in baseball a couple of yrs ago. The funny thing was the services started stealing his plays and he quit posting. I am just thankful he is posting again! Stop thinking too much and just enjoy the ride!!!!
 

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LaTroy Hawkins cost us the sweep, he looked really terrible out there. That's the second straight time. How has his worth changed from your validation?
 

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I can't believe guys are angry that BG won't post his record. ...

No-one is angry, it was just curiousity.
Btw I just had a quick look and posted picks are (assuming none of the bets was cancelled by a pitcher change and that all bets were for 1 unit) 14-13, -1.47 units.
27 games are, of course, still an irrelevantly small sample size.
 

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No-one is angry, it was just curiousity.
Btw I just had a quick look and posted picks are (assuming none of the bets was cancelled by a pitcher change and that all bets were for 1 unit) 14-13, -1.47 units.
27 games are, of course, still an irrelevantly small sample size.
My average large play is about 40% larger than an upper medium play (sometimes considerably more). My upper medium play is about 30% larger than a medium play. The smaller plays vary a lot.
You are counting his plays as flat ones. His large plays have been doing well. I am up following him.

There are some bets he haven't taken credit for, because he didn't post a write up in time, but posted them as basically you should grab them now as they're undervalued. ala Rays against the O's which blew up about 70 cent from the open which was probably one of his largest wagers, Dodgers yesterday that was probably a medium play. He also posts the current line that's available which he could probably have 15 cent or more advantage already.

Also from asking him from some advice or his thoughts on certain games through PM's he took me off some losers. Other day he had Astros +216 against Loshe as a small play that cashed (from PM).

This why he probably doesn't post his small plays or upper small plays on dogs, since they hurt a record, but are long-term profit in the long run and guys like you would just look for something like that to nit pick at.

You wanna spend useless negative energy on a valuable user who sets a great example to the forum which what is badly needed. Shake my head.

Trust me the guy is winning.
 

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Joined
Mar 30, 2006
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You are counting his plays as flat ones. His large plays have been doing well. I am up following him.

You wanna spend useless negative energy on a valuable user who sets a great example to the forum which what is badly needed. Shake my head.

Trust me the guy is winning.

OK i trust you:toast:
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2008
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Hunger,

You put it in perfect perspective. I can post my record and units up or down but it's all non relevant. These units are fictional items that a poster uses for 1.) to go tout, 2.) for self gratification or 3.) to get followers and feel self gratified and then go tout. Either way the bottom line is Buffett has been around for years including a stint a couple years back posting at a winning percentage rate of 68%. That was one of the most wealthiest profit margin years I've had in my betting and wagering career. The market seems to be much more difficult and my offshore accounts get closer and quicker to market value than years past.

The bottom line is picking winners and getting a better price just like any market. If your in early and you know the line will move, well, in anything you've won...Picking winners is obvious choice so I'll try and do that consistently. Isn't it so easy...

GEKKO
 

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